Corona se Darona

A month of lockdown has been over in India. India has fared much better as compared to developed nations on corna front. Even though India has a huge population the number of cases reported is much leser than say America . Another interesting feature is india has relatively very low death rate may be the lowest across the globe.only 420 deaths are reported as against 12000 cases.

This is in sharp contrast with number of death inn USA say 20000 and 2 lakh cases. or deaths in Italy, Spain.Perhaps Indian race has more immunity. and indian people are robust. two comments are relevant here. Malaria is still a common disease in India and people have developed immunity which probably helps in fighting Corona. secondly many indians in villages and cities do not drink so called purified water from a water filter. this gives a training to the body to fight immunity . Human body should be able to digest any reasonably clean drinking water. the urbane sophisticate people are losing out on this ground and probably escapes the higher death toll inn U.S.A Europe. India consumes cooked food rather than readymade food adding many "masala items ". lets pray not but eveantually the death toll in India may rise may reach the level of U.S. but the death proportion is merely 3% and is likely to remain constant and that is significant. Also the affected people strength is also significantly lesser in proportion of the total population as compared to death toll in the world.

Ar the same time one needs to see that practicing social distancing ina densly populated city like Mumbai is very difficult. in rooms in Dhravi kamathi pura worli village bharatnagar Behrampada slums a room gives shelter to 40 who sleep turn by turn. Ma ny have not known who are their room mates. A sizable population stays on footpaths .around 50% population depend on restaurants roadside vendors for their food. This is unique of Mumbai. So even if they have means and money getting food is difficult for them and it is big challenge to the government agencies. This is not only true for poor but several young middle class workers. Mumbai is financial capital of the country. usually in month of april may half mumbai is empty as people go the native place. but now we are ina strange situation people are stranded in Mumbai Delhi and cities. due to the outbreak adding more to the risk of spreading as the city is heavily and densely populated.

As actor Kamla Hasan pointed out in his letter to prime minister the whole country was locked down in 4 hours . lock down was and is essential and going by the normal trend in summer cities like Mumbai Delhi Calcutta Pune need to be lockede down till June begins

But special trains need to be deployed to carry these stranded people to their native places. There is a psychological and human angle to the situation Each one feels safer at his home during crisis. lets respect the genetic program. so i suggest peole be sent e to their native places be done. some may say that this will increase risk of spread may be true but now also there is a risk of community spread in the city as our cities are densely populated. further they can be quarantined in schools colleges at their native places for 14 days.

One good thing is that government has started agriculture and related industries. in times to come the whole world is going to feel food grains crunch and iIndia can take advantage of the situation and become a financial super power. We can not compete with china in manufacturing as china labor is cheap or Germany with engineering primarily due to genetic traits or europe with science research medicine research due to genetic traits but indiands are good at information technology fine arts like music and dance and vast land for agriculturen and solar power generation. Perhaps we should take this opportunity to downsize big forest like metrpolitan cities like mumbai but buld a cluster of small cities of the size of surat spread out uniformly across the country.

one thing is there that Maha govt was proactive in cooorna detection and lockdown messages. but i feel starting from march 1 India should have implemented strict checks and quarantines at airports and should have stopped international flights by 7 th march.

Also on 8th march a lockdown of the country till 31 st may should have been announced with 8 days time for people to make arrangements and education about the disease symptoms and social distancing Even now our education system has not understood the gravity /examination is a very defective method of testing even otherwise and right now schools and colleges be closed till June as this lockdown does not directly affect the economy.

Now comes the issue of "Bhedchal" are we not unnecessarily paranoid given the poor death rate by "Bhedchal" and media hype. When the plague outbreak much more serious was there there was no media hype. it is now imperative to compare death due to corona in Mumbai to deaths in local journey and deaths due to corona in the time prior with total number of deaths in the time period and with deaths due to road accidents and deaths due to malaria or Dengue . a comparative statistical study only can help us inn evolving correct strategy. the cure should not be worse than disease especially for a developing country

Viral diseases never had a cure and Covid 19 is an evolution of common cold flew virus. Even common cold has no cure.

As most corona affected people get cured on their own only those who develop acute respiratory symptoms be monitored . we should try to live with the risk of contracting corona by wearing mask and carry on day to day life after June like we carry our day to day activities not withstanding risk of Malaria , or road accident or falling from a train in our every day life.in city like Mumbai It is not possible to maintain social distancing in locals buses and in India one can not and should not expect to keep middle birth in sleeper vacant . not financially advisable Corona is a normal risk carried out in our day to day activities

Only big malls crowded restaurants, big parties be banned. Costly projects like bullet trains should be scrapped unnecessary Aping of america for example 10 + 2 + 3 patter be scrapped. What suits India financially and for increasing education spread in girls and exporting students for further education is 10+2+2. more about the higher education sector and harmful policies of UGC at the last paragraph as appendix.

interstingly some college girls watching Modi live on tv commented " why is he addressing come out in balcony and light " is Modi not aware that Many Indian homes have no luxury to afford a balcony for home to whom is he addressing only upper middle class and rich. These wwere girls from upper middle class rich urban families.

It highlights a picture of how far is our prime minister from ground realities or he wants to address upper segments as he views them as vote bank. mind well though many crtics acclaimed Narsimh Raos government common man did not approve of his policies and defeated him. same is true of Vajpeyi government Vajpeyi himself realized that " India shining story" is not true and again his government got defeated in 2004 while manmohan Singh government was given green signal in 2009, there was nothing great in rao government policies in 1991 a most were imposed by Gatt and Dunkel, world bank.

But while India spends most foreign exchange it was totally wrong to increase prices of diesel to promote private transport and expressways and highways the bad effects of which we face today are traffic jams pollution and through corona god is trying to open our eyes. Again we find air quality improved. who benefitted from Mumbai pune expressway upper middle class who can afford toll . one thing goodd is S.T buses can ply .

what corona has in store for economy ? Agarkar ,Shivram Paranjape in the history remarked that British rule in India was God planned to develop stagnated india. yes British gave us the system of courts post offices railways education and changed the course of india as a nation. we followed their footsteps and tried to ape bad practices of America while retaining bad practices of Brtish like IAS a corrupt system where a person without much technical knowledge is given powers to control intelligent people like doctors, engineers , teachers resulting in corruption and exodus of talent. A non violent form of cultural revolution is expected to end "babudom". Corona is similarly a strategy of god correct human civilization to walk in a path synchronous with natoral resources preserving environment and aiming at happiness index rather than GDP growth. a comment of an retired economist IAS officer is relevant here. He aid why do u want development in Adidas ares like Gadchiroli. These people are happy as they are in their lives. Development causes disparity uneven growth. Now comes of income distribution. the wealth of superstar valued at rs 230 crore was less than CEO o L & T A. K Naik Corporate salaries are not justified when the poo workers in the same company find difficult to get good salary or farmers commit suicide. so corporate office pay is a form of institutionalization and legalized corruption resulting in inflated prices of products in the market. Any taxation system ought to collect money from rich and use it for development of infrastructure as high income group people benefit most from expressways, flyovers , big hospitals, cars .etc

In countries like U.K income tax @ 45% . in india also income above 40 lakh should be taxed@ 45% with surcharge for primary education , railways agriculture and power sector @ 10%

GST should have more slabs with items like non herbal cosmetics cars, big homes , holiday homes air conditioners taxed@ 40 % while milk a small pack of glucose biscuts cheap smart phone models books surgical equipment small cup of pure mik icecr4eam grains be taxed @ 2% .Tthese polices wont cause brain drain as great scientists have been produced by countries whre tax rates are higher >neither businessman are going to stop business .

Also cars to become costlier does not affect technical progress of related industries as one can give incentives for aeroplane factories ship industry and cars are causing traffic jams and pollution as well as wastage of foreign exchange. US promoted cars due to low population density and Us is the topmost producer of mineral oil across the globe around 51%. it was their strength. Low population density made public transport infeasible.

on the contrary India spends more than 50% of foreign exchange on oil import . So the road of prosperity of the country lies in increasing use of rail transport rail elecrification doubling tracks and developing supporting rural road netwrok. It is but logical that diesel should be cheaper as needed for industry and trucks while petrol be costlier In cities like Mumbai Delhi there is good public transport. Petrol is needed only in cities like Pune Surat Vadodara Cochin but Pune was once upon bicycle city. Now throughout the world bicycles are used and on the contrary in Pune we see petrol vehicles traffic jams pollution. We need to promote e bikes . Rural India operates on motor cycles which can ply on diesel.\ t is sad that financial ministers like Manmohan singh are labelled as transformers as their policies were illogical. The wave of wealth in India came not by Manmohan policies but by IT Sector and vision of Rajeev Gandhi. Manmohan said the stock market boom was due to him but it was proved wrong when Harshad Mehta scam surfaced. How can economic policies framed on wrong logic be called good ?

Yes merging of nationalized banks, selling of loss making psu units are good practices. But not the policy of taxation and fuel pricing. India would have been many times more prosperous today if petrol was taxed heavily and the money used for railway electrification rather than building expressways . A popular but wrong demand is cancellation of tolls. tolls be cancelled for public transport but it should be increased for cars at each and every level.

collect money from upper middle class rich spend on the development of poor people is the mandate people gave in 1996 . 2004, 2009. A society with a lot of disparities in income level is going to be unstable and the economic wealth is momentary and not long lasting. Singapore Finland , Denmark have better growth models than U..S.A

a heathy society is one where wealth is normally distributed and economic policies and taxation is directed at this .God has indicated to India and world that do not follow path of destruction and all governments and in particular India frame taxation polices which aim at common man. and reduce pollution and offer sustainable growth

Deficit planning coupled with total freeze on dearness allowance and promotions in Government and semi government sector will be the strategy which can show us wealthy days again .

I suggest strategy of semi privatization. In all government hospitals doctors can also private patients and share some revenue to the government hospital only the basic pay be borne by government and all allowances including dearness house rent allowance be borne by each government office . The collector office should charge more for instant delivery of services like domicile saat bara etc and so each govt office should be able to bear 40 percent of its employee expenses through its own. if there is deficit it should be financed by government but then this will keep the office on toes.

in countries like USA there is social support system for people having no source of income. we have abolished the one for govt employees. in fact all govt semi govt employees should have pension 75 percent of dearness allowance and 25 percent should be in provident fund account locked for 25 years and pension at the rate of 40 percent be given. the GPF money can be used for infrastructure development as There are countries like Portugal which offer 100 percent pension but criticized by world bank as loss making A social system need s to be measured not like an auditor but on the social welfare index.

Impractical socialism has failed but even capitalism has failed as it is evident in housing loan bubble in America and similar bubble in India. which has been lying dormant.

Finally UGC official corruption

UGC asK ed for net but most who were employed in private colleges which are aided in late eighties have escaped net and these are high wage earners. In govt colleges these were recruited on adhoc basis regulated as late as in July 2006, are dome without B plus and given huge pay of 2 lahks now without even being M. Phil or Ph. ,D

in several subjects like maths computer science, non Phds will be as a rule more intelligent and knowledgeable than phd and they did not get phd as they did not want to do crap or meaning less research.

Situation continues even now. My Phd student was producing all junk papers like math for disabled or not very mathematical .I scolded her , She said sir this counts for promotions and professorship . See my collegaue very good at subject but i n pure Maths difficult to produce meaningful new research and is not promoted though he is better than all of us

It is scam worse the Aadrsh scam . People recruited adhoc in late eighties were concurred without Mpsc nod in Maha govt in 2006 and they draw fat pay more than qualified Mpsc recruited. I was told that the original copy signed by secretary has actually contrary remarks written but Gr says something else a technique of floating Grs. just like that the most corrupt system of India is higher education