Corona - The Leadership Challenge
Why whatever you do or don't do as a leader does & doesn't matter. 'The burden of command for those 'wearing the Crown' these days.
Total lockdown, panic attacks, attacks on people with a perceived Chinese identity.... We experience these things these days. But what is it that we exactly face? And what can be done about it by our leaders... or by ourselves for that matter.
Is there any good course of action?
Corona - more viral than a meme (or is it a meme?)
Disclaimer: I'm no virologist or expert in any of the field considered relevant for this case) Virus spreads from bats to humans in the Chines region of Wuhan - MD finds out and warns government - Government tries to cover up (mostly because of inability to and fear of mobilizing the political system) - infection spread in mysterious and unpredictable ways - CN government communicates - panic starts to rise { fast forward } All organisations start cancelling travel, ban office-visits, schools close down. Italy locks down... on, and on, and on!
Did we do enough or not?
Everything around this whole Corona-Crisis (as we might confidently call it by now) either moves or fascinates me. I can't fully comprehend or analyse it, but I also feel the strong desire to somehow make sense of it, maybe even see the value in it.
The Boy who cried wolf
We all know the fable of the guy who made jokes about being attacked by a wolf, twice, upsetting the villagers who came to his rescue. When he cried 'wolf' the third time, when there was really a wolf staring him down, no villager came out; he wouldn't fool them a third time! He perished.
We might all draw a different lesson from this story, one of them could be: Don't make stupid jokes. But I'm hinting at a deeper factor: You can only cause so much upsetting events, before people start to become indifferent. BE AWARE: I'm NOT saying this is a joke, but it is an upsetting event that has way more second order effects than only the first order infections and deaths, at this moment.
I am foreseeing a world in which people might either become more and more indifferent (and thereby possibly stimulating the spreading even faster and wider) or even more reluctant to accept the second order effects like economic damage, restrictions on movement, and other factors that disrupt our lives (Thereby also possibly endangering the rest of us by trying to literally kill the next whistleblower). It is not entirely unthinkable that there are a lot of Chinese people, bankrupted by these events, that feel some murderous sentiments towards the guys who warned (and possibly even saved them). We now know that the good doctor paid the ultimate price, whether naturally induced or not.
To act or not to act, that is the question...
When we face challenges, one of the first things we do is looking at the people who are considered to be our leaders. But what can they do in a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) situation like this? Not having all the information & insights is one thing, but facing consequences either way is another. Let's just quickly assess the options:
NO ACTION: You choose to ignore everything, having the iconic British WW2-era poster in your mind. The virus might spread and wreak medical havoc... or it doesn't (that much). Let's assume for a moment that at least some people will officially die from the direct results of the virus. Whether some of them would have otherwise died from a different cause is unknown (Viri are mostly deadly to the physically weaker people).
Two fairly reasonable opinions: 1) Why didn't you do anything? [The emotional reaction: requiring at least some symbolic action.] 2) Why didn't you do enough? [The slightly more rational reaction: requiring some effective action]
The problem with the emotional one is that it is debatable what would actually be considered proper response, and to whom. Would the symbolic action not be counter-productive?
The problem with the second opinion is that of scale; all the possible actions fit on a scale of effectiveness and price (both economical and social). Every death, of course, is a tragedy that is best prevented. But what could be considered enough? At what cost?
In the end, you might even risk the spreading of a rebellion... against you.
ACTION: You take (some) action; restrict movement, alert all services, stock the hospitals with vaccines (if even existing & available). You might consider a more active approach by actively checking everybody and everything or just sit and wait what happens next.
But when do you know if what you are doing or did is enough? It is mostly after everything dies down (pun intended) and the smoke is cleared that we start to have some idea of what really went down. Full clarity is almost never achieved.
The third option is actually a different beast: Prevention & Preparation. Beyond the almost obvious measure of having at least a decent stock of vaccines and number of treatment facilities (what constitutes 'decent'?) and having some ideas about crowd-control and basic safety procedures, what could you do more? When is it enough? Could we even be prepared for everything? What about black swan-events? The Unknown-Unknowns or even some of the Known-unknowns of which the scale and timing are not yet clear?
This not only touches politicians or administrators of public bodies, but Managers and directors too; can you afford to lose face, business... or god forbid, even team members?
VALUABLE LESSONS?
So, what does Corona have to offer us, besides a glimpse into what panic does to society?From voices that call it Nature's way of dealing with overpopulation or unhealthy practices to those who see it as just another thing happening to us, we can't deny that it affects us all in some way, shape or form. It better be worth it then!
Might it give us a glimpse into a future of ever more influential natural disasters and how to pepare for- and deal with them?
Can we maintain a fully open global order and still be able to contain spreading(fast enough)?
What would a more contained world look like? Is scaling down and looking at more resilience and self-sufficiency a possible necessity/solution?
Many more questions, but one thing is clear though...
It's tough to wear the crown...
The measures and examples above are, of course, just scratching the surface of the matter, but they show us a glimpse of what dilemma's one might find him-/her-/itself dealing with when sh*t hits the fan and they are 'wearing the crown' at that moment.
You can't be everyone's friend/hero/saviour. You have to triage and balance multiple lives/interests and society/organisation at large. Your decisions will always be criticised; whatever you do or don't do, by someone, at any time.
So, to bring this exploration into this 'Kobayashi Maru' to an end and shape it into some considerations:
- Can you find a way to thoroughly but efficiently assess pre-, ad- and post- event what is really going on and what your options are? Continuously followed by the balance of interests that will always way disappoint or hurt someone. Be bold, calm and confident! That has a power of its own that will have a calming and guiding effect.
- Whenever you assess the situation and consider action, always try to look over the horizon. Some actions might feel as totally justified in the moment, but cause (unforeseen) more unnecessary pain down the road. Always consider the second-& third order effects!
- Information will always be incomplete, unclear or just confusing; immediately share with the relevant people, but make it available to all as soon as it is responsible to do so; you should't keep it all to yourself, but you should also dose it, as to not cause any panic (beyond what's happening on the street anyway).
- PR - Try to have a solid PR-strategy ready in advance and try to at least maintain a calm, composed and controlled stream of information. A virus is already a disaster, don't make your PR into another. (control the narrative to counter fake news)
- Being on top of the food chain, whether politically or economically, has its perks in the good times but also requires a toll to be paid in dire times; accept both with dignity!
- Remember that whatever you decide, there are human lives and or livelihoods involved... no pressure there!;-)
Enough to consider while being in lock-down...
Erik Scarcia is Strategy Director at Comsigliere and helps organisations to optimise their Story (their communication), Strategy (their vision & strategy ), and Streamlined success (Their tactics & execution). He is founder of TheRedSprint & TheRedTeaming, aiming to profoundly change the way decisions are taken and strategies executed by applying combined elements from RedTeamThinking and DesignThinking/Sprints.
Pictures: Unsplash.com - Laura Skinner, Dmitry Bayer, Wanderlabs, Jake Bradley
