CORONA And ECONOMICS OF SUSTENANCE

Back-Ground:

The Current Global Pandemonium has not on raised eyebrows for all, but is also now commencing to infuse an element of Uncertainty in the masses. The obvious question that every keeps asking not only every morning but at every moment is Will I Survive & What happens to my livelihood.

The Global Bioscope today is CORONAID than plagued as we scan across US, Italy, Iran, UK, France, China or any other Nation. Even most disciplined business nations of Japan and South Korea are exposed like nine pins.

As time passes by, most likely mystery of DaVinci Code would be cracked and some of the answers made available for all. For the current moment it may not be appropriate to seek answers to Why was only Wuhan city impacted, What Sinister poisoning happened between Bat, Snake, and the Homo Sapiens at the Wet Market, What happened to the Virology Centre and which whistle was Dr. Li Weinliang trying to blow, Why did WHO (World Health Organization) miserably fail to neither forecast nor fathom nor even alert the larger World Community in a timely manner, etc.

I loath to mention the casualty numbers primarily for reasons of avoiding any negativity and for all to stay resilient in times of this crisis.

Looking Ahead - Socially:

Be rest assured that Human Race would not become extinct as of now and therefore it is imperative for us to look forward. SOCIAL DISTANCING is the only vaccine, albeit a bitter one for us and Humans by Nature are Community animals. It is most prudent to let state manage our medical and social well being in times of this community crisis.

Looking Ahead - Economically:

As per Vedas, Economics or Arthshastra is interlinked to our Dharma. We need to shed our own inhibitions as we reach the shores from the Choppy Waters. Post CORONA situation may change the way we work, the way State Businesses operate, our own Mindset, Realty Office Space, and the entire landscape. Let us now deep dive into some of the key elements bifurcated as Short Term and Midieum Term Objectives:

Short Term: Some of the Immediate Measures to Keep our Economy Moving.

a) Business For Sustenance - Do not Retrench / Re-Align Your Organization in the next 270 days horizon. Profits must have been made during hay days. Common Workforce is today most vulnerable and are left without any option for day to day sustenance. Avoid declaring Bankruptcy, avoid wage cuts, but do explore options for creating an Enabled Environment, Safe Transportation, and Work from Home Option. etc. In lieu, the workforce needs to demonstrate larger accountability. Such an approach would far sustain one time contributions to made to Aid and Relief funds for the end cause.

b) PSU (Public Sector Undertaking) & Other State Run Organizations should pay all debts and dues immediately - to ensure that their is money flow in the economy and inflation is running out of hand.

c) Interest Rates & Stock Markets - The Central Of the Country needs to have a closer governance on Lending Rates & Liquidity Ratios. While one cannot resort to indiscriminate deficit financing, yet you can neither have Run-Away Inflation nor Depression triggered by job loss and lack of opportunities. Always do remember that Panic selling of Scrips along with discontinuation of Systematic Investment Plans of past will not only erode your past savings and dirt-cheap rates on the Micro Level, but also these very Holdings would land up with unscrupulous entities at the Macro Level. Therefore, the mantra is hold on to the ship fence till the storm settles.

d) Asset Owners - Moratorium of at least 120 days especially in areas of Tenancy, Term Finance, short term borrowing funds, and allied areas. Modalities of repayment can always be worked. This would effectively eliminate chances of default and no one wants the Shadows of the Great Depression to loom over.

Medium Term: Here lies the game changer or the paradigm shift as enlisted below:

a) Manufacturing Hub Shift From China - Driven by emotive agony of the Virus, Collapse of Human Life, and Crippling of World Economies, we may likely witness efforts by the Developed Countries (Worst hit by this pandemic) to reduce their current Overdependence on China Manufacturing Hub. While Japan has already initiated actions to shift away from China, intentions from American & European Countries may soon be publicly evident either in form of Press Release, Opinion, or Trade Deals.

b) The Beneficiaries - There is a Greater Opportunity for Counties in the Indian Sub-Continent, & SE Asia to eye a share of the wallet. Cheap and abundant workforce with possibility of quick upskilling will be the key here. Phased harnessing the migrant labour class into educated (albeit semi skilled) is a critical aspect.

c) Business Continuity Management & Technology - An area often ignored needs much larger recognition and awareness. Times of crisis have taught us the hard way why comprehension, appreciation and execution about concepts like Work From Home, Virtual Offices, Dual Employment, Consultancy Services, Faster Internet Bandwidth, Mobility Enablement, Enhancement for Virtual Security Server Systems, utilizing Cloud Servers, Big Data Management, Knowledge Storage, EDI Interfaces, Block Chain Technology Tools have all assumed critical importance. Technology Disruptions for Good has to out-way epidemic and natural disasters by a huge delta in the post Corona Era.

d) Core Sectors - Apart from Manufacturing, the new core for the Service Sector would be Education, Healthcare, Shipping & Logistics. The biggest lesson we have learnt from history is that we haven't learnt any lessons at all. Had we been better equipped or anticipated Covid-19 spread via Travel and Logistics and beefed up Healthcare at stage one, the Global House of Cards would never have fallen.

e) Risk Taking And Funding New Business - Conservatism and stagnation will only lead to decay. Change in Business Dynamics will erode the current base of holding, and its a known fact that Remains of Erosion is called Nothing. Helping to support an Enabled Environment for New Age Businesses in all aspects of Infrastructure, Funding, Speedy Statutory Clearances, and Human Capital has to the Key Priority for all Policy Makers.

*Disclaimer: Views and analysis expressed above is solely personal basis situational analysis with the objective of sharing a perspective only. This article is not driven by any Personal, Political, or Financial agenda.