Is Corona a Black Swan Quack or a Dog Whistle to the Capitalism Armageddon? - An Easter Prayer for RESURRECTION: "Make Capitalism Great Again"!!!

Adaptation from: https://www.epm-mavericks.com/post/corona

Happy Easter, Passover & Ramadan,

“I’ve seen a lot of tough eras, a lot of downturns in my life.

It seems that we’ve lost our heart at times……

All that matters now is what’s ahead.

How do we come together? And how do we win?

This country can’t be knocked out with one punch.

We get right back up again and when we do

The world’s going to hear the roar of our engines.

Yeah, it’s halftime America and our second half is about to begin.”

- Clint Eastwood (Chrysler Super Bowl Halftime Ad, 5 February 2012)

 During the 1990s, George Soros broke the Bank of England for ￡3.3 billion and also caused the Asian Financial crisis for a fraction of the Money he holds. I wonder, how many rouges $'s out of our >$25 Trillion debt (including Chinese/Russians/Saudi's holds) need to break the Western Capitalism Enterprise? What happens if the Iranian Theocracies realize this is their last opportunity (to cause trouble/WAR) prior to the reelection of Trump? Great depression created the Third Reich and the Rise of the Dictators Like Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, etc. What kind of real-world order future ahead of us with the walls against the globalization in a trade wars era? When China effectively colonized the rest of the world with their Silk Road , we are busy building the walls around us. In summary, we are extremely vulnerable and if we don’t play our cards right, we will be soon working as slaves as the MAN IN THE HIGH CASTLE as in the Netflix Documentary AMERICAN FACTORY ?

“Consider your origin. You were not formed to live like brutes

But to follow virtue and knowledge.”

-John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum (Quote by Dante Alighieri)

 Yeah, it's halftime America and our second half is about to begin:

This is the most auspicious resurrection time of the year by celebrating Easter or Passover or Ramadan. This is not the time to quarantine our minds, rather self-reflect our current state and prepare for the future state world order architecture road map. Let me share my cryptic & rudimentary self-reflection contrarian perspective scribbling on what brought me to the current despair. Above all, let me take the liberty to propose a Pro Bono RESURRECTION proposal road map to excel. I spent over two-decade Architecting the Business Systems in Fortune 100 and BIG4 consulting environments. Over a decade, I had the honor to play critical strategic mentor & adviser (volunteer) for the largest not for profit professional organization in its most crucial region (the Asia Pacific as Mentor) in addition to contributing all the key five standards. PMI (Project Management Institute), which serves ~3 million professionals, including over 500,000 members in 208 countries around the world. It will be my privilege to offer to assemble (Pro Bono) team together to help those who needed the most (especially the small and Medium Enterprises), on analyzing the current state and developing the Enterprise Architecture Road-map designed for New Normal World Order. Yeah, it's halftime America and our second half is about to begin.

Current State Architecture Analysis: “Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum" (If you want ENTERPRISE peace, prepare for EPM Architectural war)

Nixon shocked the world by ripping off the Bretton woods Gold Standard in the 1970s and kick-starting the bottomless $ printing press pit.

Two decades ago, then my management Guru Predicted:

"The corporation as we know it, which is now 120 years old,

It is not likely to survive the next 25 years.

Legally & Financially, Yes,

But not Structurally & Economically."

-Peter Drucker, Circa 2000

Post 911, we (WEST) went high with our irrational exuberance and later with Financial Engineering amplified by High-Frequency Algorithmic Gambles by BOT's. We spilled the precious blood & prodigalized ~$10 Trillion in godforsaken Middle Eastern desert for someone else dirty religious generational war. Our Quarterly report driven Wall-street squandered our great Enterprises built over a century for a few $'s to East (contract manufacturing & outsourcing). Pathetically even after the Defense Production Act Order, Trump does not even have any access to our own 3M face masks (even Communist Cuban doctors are better prepared helping Italy & rest of the world). The economic Armageddon was brewing, accelerated since the 2008 Economic Tsunami, with western central banks flooding the >$25 Trillion into the markets. Our politicians, CEO's & executives, Wall-street, PE firms, etc. went party with buybacks & squandering the great balance sheet and Financial Engineered to "Privatize the Assets & Socialize the Liabilities.”

Sadly, Coronavirus happened to be the BlackSwan, which quacked the Armageddon song. 

As a result:

"One-quarter of small businesses already shut down….

Clock ticking on permanent shutdowns.

Forty-three percent believe they have less than six months."

-      U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Circa APR 03, 2020

According to SBA, Small businesses make up: 99.7 percent of U.S. employer firms and 64 percent of net new private-sector jobs. 

Sadly, ~20 Million Job losses in a couple of weeks - nearly to all the jobs created in best of times over a decade:

When China effectively colonized the rest of the world with its Silk Road, we are busy building the walls around us. I believe we are at the crossroads of the new Structural Economic World Order. In the past three weeks, US alone committed ~$5 Trillion as a bandage to botched-up Zombie Frankenstein Economy. Sadly, almost all those helicoptered $'s will again end up with 1% vultures (PE/Sovereign Funds, etc.). George Soros broke the Bank of England for ￡3.3 billion and caused the Asian Financial crisis for a fraction of the Money he holds. I wonder how many rouge $'s out of our >$25 Trillion debt which Chinese/Russians/Saudi's etc. do sovereign Funds hold need to break the FED?

Future State Architecture Road-map: A Pro Bono RESURRECTION proposal to "Make Capitalism Great Again"!!!

Pardon me for green-washing my guilt of capitalizing the Irrational Exuberance in the Distorted Reality Bubble Maya's. I started my career (MBA in Finance) as an Investment Banking Analyst. I migrated to ERP (thanks to the biggest blunder in business history - Y2K) since I lost faith in the roller-coasters of flash markets (90% of today's stock market without long term fundamental values is chasing the tweets with the HOT $'s & High-Frequency Algorithmic Derivatives Flash Gambles by BOT's). In 2008 during the middle of the economic Tsunami, I was tasked as an Advisor (CFO's office) to set up the Project Portfolio Management Office for a FORTUNE 10 World's Most Admired Company and saved around half a Billion $. Hail to Hernando de Soto, I am born again to The Mystery of Capital gospel. Since 911, I made my $'s betting against the conventional market wisdom. I re-incarnated to EPM career out of 2008 Economic Tsunami, and I made >95% net worth (extreme leveraging in Real-estate on fire sale) surfing the Economic Tsunami (during 2008-2010).

Since last Economic Tsunami, I do have a fair share of blood on my hands with mindless EPM Financial Engineering through fancy jargon’s (aka Cost Cutting) like Tax Effective Supply Chain Management (TESCM), Business/ Finance/IT Transformation, BPR, Six Sigma, Pricing and Profitability strategy through BIG4 Consulting firm. To green-wash my guilt, I had the amazing honor to volunteer for the largest Professional Not for Profit for over a decade and contributed to about half a dozen books and ~50 publications/presentation.

I believe the time is running out to mitigate further damages by taking a radically different approach through current state Enterprise Architecture Analysis and Enterprise Performance Management Road-map & its Execution. If we come together for the social good, we do have a small window of opportunity to revive the many small & medium enterprises in the ICU. We can rejuvenate the Business Architecture by AXing the obese underbelly fat, at least in HALF, and maximizing to thrive the new world order. As an example, we can help:

1. Executive Mentoring
2. Rapid Current State Assessment
3. Future State Business Architecture Road Map
4. Strategic Planning, Restructuring etc.
5. Business/ Finance/IT Transformation, BPR, Six Sigma
6. Project & Portfolio Strategies
7. Enterprise Performance Management Execution
8. Execution Methodology and Planning
9. Sustenance
10. Develop Center of Excellence
11. Private Equity, Deal structuring & execution
12. Etc.

YES, it is time to get out of our mental quarantine comma to blossom in the new world order. It will be my honor & privilege to assemble (Pro Bono) a team together to help those who needed the most (especially the small and medium firms).

Yeah, it's halftime America and our second half is about to begin,

Saji K Madapat TOGAF 9, PMP, CPIM, CIERP, CSSMBB, MBA

https://www.epm-mavericks.com/mavericks

https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/goodtogreat

A brief history of My Nomadic Current State Incarnations: I was born and brought up in God's Own Country (Kerala, India). We believe we are followers of St. Thomas the Apostle and educated by Christian Missionaries brought by Portuguese, French & British colonizers. As a result of 100% literacy in Kerala, it brought communists who were democratically elected the first time (1957) in world history. As a result of communism, I had no other option to pack up my bags after my Industrial Engineering Degree (with specialization in Total Quality Management) to find a job in Bombay (commercial capital in India). I soon realized I do not have much life beyond the factory floor with my dark skin (as a lungi wearing Kala Madrasi). I got scared, and I ran away to the south to escape the racist economic ladder. I took my MBA in Finance as a National Integration candidate. Luckily, the whole Indian Economy collapsed in 1990 under the weight of license raj (India took the socialist route in the 1970s, and Kissinger called us as Bastards & Indian Prime Minister (Indira Gandhi) as Old Witch – for full disclosure, later on, Nixon & Kissinger apologized). Thanks to the collapse of the half a century old mighty Indian License Raj, the Indian economy got liberalized just in time, and I started my career as an Investment Banking Analyst. Ironically soon, I lost my job due to the 1996 stock market bubble in India. Thanks to the biggest blunder in business history (Y2K), I managed to migrate from corporate finance to ERP. But in 2000, the BaaN (Netherlands based) Brothers got into Dutch scandal, and the #3 ERP (BaaN) system I was riding became Dead-horse. Since then, I spent over a decade volunteering for PMI and etched my name to all the standards of PMI (including PMBOK, OPM3, PP&PM, etc.). Thanks to my PMI papers, publications and books (especially Project Portfolio Management Standard) In 2008 during the middle of the economic Tsunami, I served as an Advisor (to CFO’s office) to set up the Project Portfolio Management Office for a FORTUNE 10 World's Most Admired Company and saved around half a Billion $ (I even served in the in Gartner’s PPM Panel and later as one of the three PM Methodology SME at E&Y). But I became the victim of my own short-term financial Engineering. I managed to capitalize on the 90’s legacy Hyperion Enterprise and moved on to the fancy world of CFO's suites of products for bigger Financial Engineering in the BIG4 consulting world.

Back in 2009, I packed my bags to Cambodian Jungles in search of answers from the Bottom of the Pyramid through GIFT (Global Institute for Tomorrow – a Clinton Global Young Leadership Program (YLP)). The more I looked at the Finance world in the west, the more disillusioned I am. I lost faith in the roller-coasters of flash markets (90% of today's stock market without long term fundamental values is chasing the tweets with the HOT $'s & High-Frequency Algorithmic Derivatives Flash Gambles by BOT's). Hail to Hernando de Soto, I am born again to The Mystery of Capital gospel. Since 911, I made a few $'s betting against the conventional western market wisdom by betting in Petro China & TOTAL.

After coming back from the wilderness of Cambodian killing fields, I re-incarnated to EPM career out of the 2008 Economic Tsunami in BIG4 world. I made 95% of my net worth between 2008 to the 2011-time frame by betting against conventional wisdom (when everyone deleveraged, I leveraged to the extreme in some of the iconic real-estate in the world which was on Fire-Sale). I do have a fair share of blood on my hands with mindless EPM Financial Engineering through fancy jargons (aka Cost Cutting) like Tax Effective Supply Chain Management (TESCCM), Business/ Finance/IT Transformation, BPR, Six Sigma, Pricing and Profitability strategy. I used to be involved in several Entrepreneur of the Year (EOY) Award at Ernst & Young too. To green-wash my guilt, I had the amazing honor to volunteer for the most extensive Professional Not for Profit for over a decade (PMI (Project Management Institute), which serves ~3 million professionals, including over 500,000 members in 208 countries around the world). I contributed to about half a dozen books and ~50 publications/presentations.

I would like to opensource better-refined ideas to publish a book on "Make EPM Great again." I understand 99% of the first-time audience will be turned away, and the remaining 1% cast the stones. In essence, I will use those stones for intellectual stimulation to open source the foundation materials for this book and bring backrest of the 99% for their constructive wisdom.

About me: https://www.epm-mavericks.com/mavericks