CORONA OR NO CORONA, 1CR PEOPLE DIE IN INDIA EVERY YEAR

By. Er. SP Sharma, B.E.(IITR), MBA

Annual Deaths in India-  Annual death rate in India 2017 was 7.242, in 2019 it was 7.273 and expected in 2020 to increase to 7.309 per 1000 of population. Total deaths in 2017 in India were 96,52,000. Taking India’s population as 135 cr in 2020, the total deaths expected in 2020 may be around 98,67,150.

Total Deaths Analysis: Following figure gives analysis of various deaths in India in 2017. As per WHO study there are 40% deaths due to communicable diseases. That means around 39.47 lacs deaths are estimated due to communicable diseases in India 2020 even if corona was not there and corona comes under communicable disease.

Corona effect: The corona effect in India would be that the patients having low body immunity like patients having non-communicable diseases like Cancer, Heart problem, Liver problem, Kidney troubles, Respiratory problems, Diabetes etc. shall convert to communicable category with corona infections in addition to communicable disease category already in existence in India. As per estimates such patients account for 42.78 lacs which are vulnerable to corona infections and may die within a week of infection. Even if we estimate that 10% people who could die a year later may die in previous year due to corona virus, it means there is a possibility of around 4lacs deaths in addition to the total deaths of 98 lacs making it a total of 102 lacs deaths in 2020, just 7.55 per 1000 of deaths an increase of almost 3.4% over previous year.

The ways to control corona effect: Lockdown was initial solution to make people aware of the pandemic but it cannot be a continuous measure. Shutting down all the economic activities for any further time will put people in the grip of hunger virus. Indian people believe in work and earn and not in begging. Govt. machinery cannot feed to around 2 crs daily wagers and their family members total comprising 10 cr. persons. Even middle-class people cannot sustain more than two months of house expenses. Also, children education will be affected. So, in any case we should come out of the lockdown and allow all the economic activities as it was before lockdown. Following measures are suggested to be followed so as to minimise the corona impact.

1.      Personal Immunity- we should make people immune to corona virus by giving them Homeopathic, Ayurvedic, Naturopathic, Yoga etc. medicines till such time Allopathic medicine comes out with some vaccination. For this purpose, various media channels and social media can be used to spread awareness to the public.

2.      Masks & Screening- Let all the people wear mask and sanitize them and screen for temperature at various entrances to the work places, malls entry point, movie theatre entry points, at entry to airports/ railway stations/ bus stations, at entry to general gatherings for fairs and festivals, etc. People can also be screened at random points in probable areas. Only people who are having high temperature should be checked for corona virus and if needed only then they should be admitted to hospital for proper care. There should be no quarantine and no isolation for the patients or their family & friends.

3.      Threat Awareness- The sections of people like children below 5 years and persons having diabetes, heart problems, any other respiratory issue may be asked to be more careful and should avoid crowded places. This should be only advisory and not forceful.

4.      Free Style- Social distancing may not be an issue when people use masks therefore let all buses, trains, metros, other public vehicles run without any problem.

5.      Fitness- People can be made aware of the fact that they should do all kinds of physical exercises to remain fit and have sufficient anti-oxidants generated in their body to minimise corona impact.

6.      Herd Immunity- We have to allow herd immunity to generate and it can generate only by way of allowing people a free movement. Since our hospitals are already equipped to handle around 1 cr deaths every year, then corona problem will not pose any big problem only care has to be taken is that corona patients should be directed to corona hospitals only, so that general patients may be saved from corona infection.

7.      Promptness- Govt. machinery should be in attention to calls from suspected corona patients and ambulance facility should be provided to so as to contain the disease in an emergent manner.

The above suggestions are put up for competent authority in Govt and other organisations to understand the issue and save the public from hunger and country from recession.                 

References

1.      https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/death-rate

2.      https://www.hindustantimes.com/health/the-top-10-causes-of-death-in-india/story-lFLxCFVHmF7svw2RKCl70K.html

3.      https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/langlo/PIIS2214-109X(19)30451-6.pdf