Unveiling the Veil: The threat of Russia’s unconventional warfare beyond Ukraine

The world is seeing more and more hidden forms of warfare that don't involve direct fighting but rather sneaky tactics to create trouble within other countries. Russia is a key player in this kind of warfare. Recent reports show that this threat is growing and not just in places where we see actual fighting, like Ukraine. Instead, it's spreading through the politics and society of many countries, using well-planned strategies to cause chaos and weaken them from the inside.

Russia's unusual methods of conflict, known as unconventional warfare, are not new. They are old strategies that have been updated for today's global politics. These strategies include spreading misleading information and taking secret actions to divide people, support Russian-friendly leaders, and weaken those who oppose them. The main goal is to control influential people by offering tempting partnerships to those who support Russian goals. In some cases, they may even use violence to make political problems worse or to further weaken their enemies.

In 2016, a significant instance of Russia's unconventional warfare efforts surfaced in Montenegro. The 161 Centre, a unit associated with Russian intelligence, orchestrated an attempted coup with the objective of stopping Montenegro from joining NATO. The plan involved using organized criminal groups, which were operating under the control of the GRU (Russian military intelligence). They were tasked with taking over key government buildings in Montenegro. The end goal was to allow several opposition politicians, presumably sympathetic to Russian interests, to seize power.

This approach is now spreading outside Europe, especially in Africa, where Russia mixes hidden violence, political tricks, and economic pressure to compete more with Western countries. The problem is that these actions support each other and become harder to stop if not addressed.

Russia's unconventional warfare presents many challenges. Despite many mistakes and poor execution, Russia keeps using these tactics, often underestimating their own abilities. Countries with many upcoming elections, like those in Europe, and regions under Russian influence, like Africa, are especially at risk.

Russia's increasing influence in Africa, referred to as the ‘Entente Roscolonial,’ shows how serious this problem is. Pretending to fight against colonialism, Russia is actually trying to control African countries and use their resources, which challenges Western influence. This situation shows that Western countries need to respond more effectively to Russia's actions.

To fight back against these sneaky tactics, Western countries need to understand the problem well and come up with strong countermeasures. They should focus on stopping Russia's secret influence and activities, especially those involving spying and gaining control over important people. However, they must be careful not to overreact and must target their actions based on solid intelligence to avoid unnecessary suspicion.

In summary, the world is at a crucial point. The usual way of preparing for direct attacks is not enough anymore. As Russia uses these indirect methods to change the global balance, Western countries need to update their strategies to deal with these hidden threats. The danger from Russia's actions goes well beyond Ukraine and threatens the security of countries around the world. There is a strong need for careful, united actions to protect the world from these secretive and harmful activities.

Source:

Watling J., Danylyuk O.V., Reynolds J. (February 2024). "The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24". Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. Special Report.

(c) Yannick De Smet. AI-assisted newsletter. The content of this newsletter is solely the idea, work, and expression of the author, and any views or meanings expressed do not represent the opinions or interpretations of any other party.