PV Market Trend - Module Tech.

As the drive for higher efficiency and cost-effectiveness intensifies, several key trends are shaping the future of PV modules. Innovations in cell interconnection materials, such as the reduction in copper wire diameter, and the push towards thinner cell designs are central to these changes. Concurrently, the market is shifting towards larger module sizes and extended product warranties to enhance performance and profitability.

This article explores these trends in detail, providing insights into the evolving PV module industry.

Materials - cell interconnection materials

Copper wire is the key material for interconnecting cells and modules.

• Current Diameter: 0.25 μm.
• Future Reduction: Expected to decrease to 0.20 μm by 2034.

Materials - cell thickness

Cell thickness reduces the cost of the product itself and the carbon footprint.

Future Projections:

• HJT Cells: target thickness of 90 μm.
• N-Type TOPCon Cells: target thickness between 110-120 μm.

Frames

• Primary Material: Aluminum (used in 90% of PV modules).
• Emerging Materials: Plastics, steel, and composite-based frames (e.g., carbon fibers) are expected to gain minor market shares.
• Frameless Modules: Predicted to hold a niche market share of 5-6%.

Module: back cover

Dual-glass is expected to become the mainstream choice by 2034 due to its superior properties.

Product - module technology

For the time being, the half-cut cells are still the mainstream although other trends in the market for specific applications, such as shingled cells and third-cut cells.

Module: segments

Roof-top system has 30% of market share right now, and it is predicted to be stable as well as the Utility-scale PV plants (65% market share). However, their market share will be a cutback a little bit because of other applications are gaining prominence, such as Agri-PV and FPV.

Module: Product - module efficiency roadmap in mass production

Continued improvement across all technologies is expected.

Module: Product - module size

During the last years, the market has seen how the module size has increased to get higher power output. The size of the modules basically has increased by increasing the number of cells or increasing the size of the cells.

The main trend right now for Utility-Segment is:

• 72 cells with rectangular cell 182x19x or 182x210mm
• 78 cells with rectangular cells 182x19x mm
• 66 cell with square cells 210x210mm

Modules with less than 2m2 will phase out while more than 3m2 will gain market share.

In short, for all applications the module size and weight are increasing since LCOE is more profitable from larger module size, BUT heavy modules have an impact on BOS.

Module: Product - product warranty

There is a move towards extending product warranties while maintaining performance warranties.

These trends outline the direction of the PV module industry, focusing on material innovations, technological advancements, and market dynamics. Keeping abreast of these developments can help stakeholders make informed decisions in the rapidly evolving solar energy landscape.