Impact of the Bangladesh Crisis on the Indian Stock Market

Bangladesh is India's 25th largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at $12.9 billion. Notably, Bangladesh is India's eighth largest export partner.

Impact overview on India’s Economy:

• Bilateral Trade: $13 billion trade in FY24 between India and Bangladesh.
• Cotton Exports: Bangladesh accounts for 34.9% of India’s cotton exports, valued at $2.4 billion.
• Agriculture Exports: Over $1.8 billion, including soybeans and onions, affected.
• Others at Risk: Pearl Global Industries, Emami, Bayer Corp, GCPL, Britannia, Vikas Lifecare, Dabur, Asian Paints, Pidilite, Jubilant Foodworks, and Bajaj Auto.
• Benefited from potential outsourcing shifts, with stocks like Gokaldas Exports, Century Enka, and S.P. Apparels seeing gains up to 18%. Source:Business Standard, CNBC

Overview of how the political unrest in Bangladesh is affecting different sectors.

FMCG:

• Marico: Shares dropped over 5.5% in last 1 week, with 11-12% of its revenue coming from Bangladesh.
• Dabur, GCPL, Britannia: Each has less than 5% sales exposure to Bangladesh.
• Jubilant Foodworks: Operates 28 Domino's stores in Bangladesh, accounting for nearly 1% of consolidated sales.

Manufacturing & Supply Chain:

• VIP Industries: The share price dropped over 4% in last 1 week. The company's supply chain and production could be impacted due to unrest in Bangladesh, where it sources 30-35% of its capacity from eight manufacturing facilities.
• Trent: Down by 4% in the last week. Sourcing from Bangladesh is significant for the Tata Group, with potential supply chain disruptions.

Textiles & Apparel:

• Gokaldas Exports: Gained up to 18%, hitting a 52-week high of ?1,089.40 on the NSE.?
• Also, Shares like Century Enka, and S.P. Apparels rallied up to 20% on Tuesday. Investors believe the Bangladesh crisis will boost textile exports from India.

Other Major Stocks

• Shares of multiple companies with exposure to Bangladesh, like Pearl Global Industries, Emami, Bayer Corp, Vikas Lifecare, Asian Paints, Pidilite, and Bajaj Auto, could face volatility due to the ongoing turmoil.

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