Copper All-Time High But What About The Other Base Metals?

Well, the past few weeks has been copper this and copper that.

By now, everyone I know, friends, colleagues, pool boy, gardener, masseur and long-distance relatives have turned into copper experts!

But what is really in store for the red metal and what does that all mean for the other base metals that appear unloved or somewhat forgotten? Not Tin because Tin has similar fundamental characteristics like Copper.

Lets dive in on the historical monthly charts for each LME Base Metals. You do not need to be a technical analysis expert to understand what I am about to share.

Our focus here are all on the all-time highs created by the LME base metals. We have selectively chosen Copper, Tin, Aluminium and Nickel.

Copper

Notable all-time highs are 2006, 2008, 2011, 2021, 2022 and 2024.

Given the current bullish momentum, there may be more upside in the copper rally with the potential for a higher all-time high, perhaps in Q1 of 2025.

Tin

Notable all-time highs are 2006, 2011 and 2022.

After the 2006 all-time high, it took tin another 5 years to register a new one in 2011.

If the historical price structure repeats and given the pace of current trading conditions, perhaps the next all-time high after 2022 can be realized in 2025 (i.e. 3 years).

Aluminium

Notable all-time highs are 2006, 2008, 2022.

Nickel

Notable all-time highs are 2007, 2022.

Copper & Tin search for new and higher all-time highs in the coming months but perhaps not so for the 4 base metals

Note that between 2006 and 2008 were the years when all the base metals appear to be in unison, undoubtably driven by strong demand forces.

Unlike now, where copper and tin are the only 2 base metals prices that are driven higher by their respective supply constraints.

If Copper and Tin are replicating or aiming for a 2011 type of all-time highs, in such scenario, the likes of aluminium, nickel, zinc and lead, may not be able to produce their own all-time highs since these metals lack the supply constraints.

Key Takeaways:

• Copper and Tin prices appear destined for a higher all-time highs in 2025 as long as the supply story continues to support the current move.
• Assuming that demand will play catch up to the upside and/or starts to improve, a higher all-time highs on Copper and Tin prices should not come as a surprise.
• While LME Copper and Tin price appear destined for a higher all-time highs of their own, the other base metals like aluminium, nickel, lead and zinc which lacks the fundamental drivers, may not produce a new all-time highs.
• Instead, we still think that the other base metals like Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc and Lead, can continue working their respective prices higher but unlikely to produce a new all-time highs like Copper and Tin.
• This is assuming that historical price structure repeat itself here and to be fair, there are some similarities as the 2011 rally to all-time highs only happened to Copper and Tin prices.
• As such, the current bullish rally in the LME base metals space is not universal but mainly driven by the metals' very own fundamental dynamics.
• We remain bullish on all the LME base metals and envisage higher prices to be had as long as the Copper rally does not falter.

I am merely sharing an observation but what do you think? Share your thoughts, repost, like and show your support.