Coping with Cutbacks and the Evolving Labour Market: Eduvation Insider (July 27 2020)

The pandemic curve continues to vary from region to region. Australia is locking down again. BC, Alberta and Ontario are experiencing resurgences thanks to reopened bars and restaurants, and a few massively irresponsible parties. While lucky Nova Scotia has ZERO confirmed cases. (Then again, going from zero to 60 takes no time at all.)

As the lockdown continues (more or less) for a fifth month of WFH, you can already see some significant changes in our lives: sales of deodorant, shampoo and razors are way down, while 15 million people subscribed to Netflix, packaged ice cream sales are up 26% -- and UFO sightings in Canada are up 50%! 

As airlines lobby Ottawa to loosen restrictions, we learn there have been COVID19 exposures on almost 600 Canadian flights so far, 42 of them in the first half of July alone. (I hope our campuses can do a better job of putting health and safety before finances!) Personally, I think it will be a couple of years before I get back on a plane – demand for my virtual keynotes and workshops is growing, and planes look less and less comfortable every day… 

I’m not the only one anticipating a permanent change in the world of work, of course. According to several recent reports, the COVID recession will accelerate the adoption of AI and robotics, automating half a million Canadians into different jobs. (If you’ve got a “swivel chair job” – look out!) 

Governments are continuing to disinvest in higher ed, despite plummeting revenues from international students – and it’s being felt most acutely in the UK and Australia, although Alberta certainly has its share of challenge too. (And breaking news last night from Mohawk College, sadly, too.) Institutions are pursuing new markets and revenue streams – from microcredentials to microcampuses – and are “self-funding” new construction, like York U’s new Markham Centre Campus. 

Almost 40% of Canadian institutions have now announced mandatory face mask policies, and I’ve got a few interesting examples of how campuses are preparing for the return of students and staff – including a 14-day “isolation accommodation” package at UofA for $975, all-inclusive… 

Post-COVID Labour Market

No question, the pandemic lockdown has disrupted many industries, and millions of Canadians remain jobless despite the movement towards “reopening” provincial economies. To “pandemic-proof” their businesses, employers will likely adopt automation more aggressively and rapidly than before…

Permanent Shifts in the Labour Market

Economists anticipate a “second wave” of pandemic layoffs coming, far more persistent than the first. Across Canada, major layoffs have of course been announced by airlines, airports, theatre chains, retail giants, and energy companies. Even LinkedIn announced it would cut 6% of its global workforce (about 960 jobs) because “fewer companies… need to hire.” The past 3 recessions eliminated 1.2 million routine jobs, which were permanently automated out of existence. This recession could automate away another 586,000 jobs, thanks to shifts to ecommerce and market consolidation in the hands of multinationals. Across all industries, senior management positions are down 30% since February, and with the growth of WFH office admin, “swivel chair jobs,” and “meeting champions” are becoming dispensable. Opportunities in the post-COVID economy can already be found in ecommerce, robotics, warehousing and logistics. Globe & Mail

The Risk of Automation across Canada

The OECD has just published a report on threats and opportunities facing the Canadian labour market, inventorying the vulnerability of local labour markets by region across the country, and by city within Ontario. Canada lost 3 million jobs between Feb and Apr, and rebounded by just 290,000 by May. Efforts to “pandemic-proof” businesses by minimizing the number of employees required onsite will likely lead to accelerated automation. Canada has one of the largest gaps in training participation between high-skilled and low-skilled workers; many are caught in a “low-skills trap.” The OECD recommends that Canada strengthen sector-focused training and career pathway programs linked to emerging labour market opportunities, promote economic diversification, support workers at risk of being displaced, and improve training in SMEs. Among many other things, the report suggests more flexible funding to permit colleges and universities to offer more short credential programs, invest in student services and engage with employers. OECD

Coping with Cutbacks

“Decimation” is something of an understatement: to punish a Roman legion, every tenth soldier was executed, so decimation meant a 10% cut in personnel. What we’re seeing in higher ed worldwide is considerably more extreme – but we’re also seeing glimmers of innovative and entrepreneurial responses, too…

200 Layoffs at Mohawk College 

Mohawk College is forecasting a 10% drop in first-year domestic students, and a 75% drop in international students – leading to a projected $50 M shortfall. In response, the College has reportedly eliminated 64 full-time positions, and temporarily laid off 120-150 part-time and contract employees, as well as cancelling or postponing a raft of new initiatives and capital investments. Hamilton Spectator

North Carolina Plans for the Worst

The U of North Carolina system is preparing for budget cuts of 25-50%. The state board has urgently directed its 17 chancellors to prepare detailed budget plans for up to 50% cuts, and to calculate the financial impact of cancelling athletics, or closing their campuses. Decisions about campus closures this Fall will be made by the state board, “when the human costs are too great for the experiment to continue.” NC Policy Watch

UK Universities to Lay Off Thousands

Around the world, institutions are coping with budget uncertainty by failing to renew contract staff and faculty – even further disadvantaging the contingent workforce, which is disproportionately young, female, and visible minorities. In the UK, universities have eliminated hundreds of hourly positions and will likely cut “thousands”of academic contracts. (Projections are that drops in international enrolment could mean the sector loses up to half its revenues for the next 4 years.) Obviously such deep cuts will mean the remaining staff are overloaded, and sadly many of the tech-savvy employees declared redundant were essential to migrate teaching online this spring. UWN

Up to 21,000 Layoffs in Australia

Australian universities are bracing for 8- and 9-figure drops in institutional income, thousands of layoffs, and damaged credit ratings, largely due to reductions in international student enrolment caused by border restrictions. Australia’s Rapid Research Information Forum projects up to 21,000 FTE jobs could be eliminated in the next 6 months, of which 7,000 might be contract researchers. Sydney Morning Herald

uAlberta for Tomorrow

uAlberta’s new president is consulting the campus community (virtually) on a major strategic restructuring, UofA for Tomorrow (UAT), to include both academic restructuring and Service Excellence Transformation (SET). In all, they anticipate more than 1,000 jobs will be eliminated. “The magnitude and pace of change required have not been experienced by any Canadian university in recent times…. The significant cuts to our budget through the Campus Alberta Grant means that there will inevitably be a reduction in jobs. Contractual obligations prevent cuts and layoffs in certain areas and for certain roles.” But UofA is also looking at new revenue streams, including increased enrolment, a land trust, course-based professional masters degrees, microcredentials, and online or international programs.  uAlberta 1  |  uAlberta 2

New “Self-Funded” York Campus in Markham

The Ontario government announced its approval Friday for a new $275 M York U “Markham Centre Campus,” with construction to get underway “within a few days.” The new 5-acre campus, for up to 4,200 students, is slated to open in Fall 2023, and will focus on “professionally relevant degree programs and micro-credentials with a strong focus on digital technologies, entrepreneurship and experiential education in high demand areas such as business and entrepreneurship, data analytics, new media and communications.” Unlike the $300M Y0rk-Seneca campus, which the Ford government cancelled abruptly in Oct 2018, this campus is “self-funded” under the province’s new “Major Capacity Expansion Policy Framework.” The premier said: “instead of the province writing multi-million-dollar cheques, we have developed a system that encourages the development of new campuses with a much smaller cost to the taxpayer.” Capital funding comes from York Region, the City of Markham, donor contributions and York U’s existing capital funds. The province will help support operating expenses after it opens. York

Innovation in Australia

Australian universities grew their international student revenues 260% between 2009 and 2018, to $8.8 billion – but after the “coronavirus cataclysm,” they are completely rethinking their business models. Major construction will likely be on hold for 5 years, but “we don’t expect to ever return to business as usual.” Monash U is using its network of international branch campuses to deliver hybrid programs to students overseas. U of New South Wales is expanding its international partnerships, and growing its short course and lifelong learning offerings. The federal government has committed $900 M to an Industry Linkages Fund, which will need to replace research funding with applied research partnerships. Some institutions are considering converting teaching buildings into industrial partnership spaces. The Guardian

Returning to Campus

As institutions prepare for the return to campus, most are adopting very similar measures. (As I’ve predicted before, I’m pretty sure face mask policies will be in place everywhere before September.) UofT published a short article that sheds some light on the work of facilities staff this summer. UofA has a quarantine package deal for international students attending any institution in Edmonton…

All-Inclusive Isolation at UofA

uAlberta has an isolation accommodation program for students, staff and faculty returning to Edmonton – and for international students coming to Edmonton to attend any PSE institution. The $975 package includes pickup from the airport, 14 days in a single residence room, room service for 3 meals a day and a snack, and medical supports. uAlberta

Mandatory Face Masks

Face masks are now mandatory on campus at uAlberta, Mount Royal, Nipissing U, and uWindsor, and “strongly recommended” at uRegina. Of the 90 institutions I am monitoring, 34 have announced mandatory mask policies (38%) and 7 have indicated masks are optional or encouraged.

Shuttered Rec Facilities at NAIT

NAIT will keep its recreation facilities closed this fall, and all student rec programs will be delivered virtually (such as “Fitness on Demand” and “Mind + Body Connect.”) The pool has been closed permanently, because it “required a significant investment to remain viable and had little connection to student programs, academic or athletics.” NAIT

Campus Prep at uToronto

uToronto facilities staff have installed sanitizer stations, signage about masks and traffic flow, and have shrink-wrapped desks and chairs in classrooms to ensure social distancing. Rooms that previously held 120 students will seat 20-30. Air dryers across 1,300 washrooms on campus have been replaced with paper towel dispensers. Faculty plan to deliver labs in person, but divided into multiple rooms, and simultaneously webcasting them for students who cannot attend. uToronto

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Ken Steele is Canada's leading higher ed futurist and strategic consultant, through his company Eduvation. He delivers virtual presentations and facilitates virtual retreats or workshops centred on emerging trends, enrolment management, pedagogical innovation, and strategic planning. 

Ken has developed 9 new topics specifically to help institutions cope with the post-COVID19 “new normal.”

For more information, please reach out to [email protected]