COP29's Trump Shadow

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By Jack Graham | Deputy Editor, Funded Projects.

The Trump effect

As the focus shifts from Trump’s stunning political comeback to what his next administration will do, I've been speaking to people here about what it means for the climate.

One of those is Ali Zaidi, National Climate Advisor and Assistant to President Joe Biden, who spoke to a small group of journalists to discuss the political earthquake.

I asked him how the upcoming change in the White House could impact U.S. climate diplomacy.

"I don't think there's one country that is an essential one in sustaining the dialogue or sustaining the progress," Zaidi said.

The main goal of meetings in Azerbaijan is to agree on the catchily named New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG)?to secure funds for developing countries to take climate action such as transitioning to clean energy.?

Zaidi pointed out that it's a financing goal for 2035, whereas U.S. administrations come and go every four years.

But a lot has changed. The incoming head of the world's largest economy and second-largest emitter is expected to retreat significantly from global climate efforts when he takes over in January.

Trump has said he plans to leave the Paris climate agreement at the earliest opportunity, and his staffers have even floated leaving the UNFCCC - the UN convention that launched the COP process.

"I don't mean to sugar-coat the result of the election or the consequences of a dramatically changed prioritisation from policy leaders in Washington," Zaidi told the meeting.

"Those are meaningful leadership matters and there's no talking around that."

American diplomacy

But it's not just Biden's inner circle that says the fate of the global climate doesn't overwhelmingly rely on the U.S. president.

I sat down with Catherine McKenna this afternoon, who was Canada's environment minister during Trump's first term as president from 2017 to 2021.

She said the United States had always been reluctant to make direct global climate finance commitments, and the situation had changed compared to 2017 when the "clean energy revolution" was not underway as it is now.

"It would be better to have the U.S. there with climate ambition, but the world is changing and it's moving forward," she said.

Diplomatically, as the United States entrenches, it remains to be seen whether the world will secure the trillions of dollars that developing nations and U.N. agencies say is needed.

Judging by the poor turnout from heads of government here - the leaders of the world's top 13 polluters skipped the talks - it could be an uphill task.

See you next week,

Jack