COP28: Transitioning towards a safe and just global food system

Any opinions presented in this article are solely my own and do not represent those of ESA or any other organizations

It wasn't until I settled into my seat on the flight from Dubai to Amsterdam that I finally felt my body unwind. A flood of emotions overcame me, stirred not only by the disappointing lack of initiative and vision from world leaders at COP28 but also by the profound sense of solidarity, empathy, and shared purpose within the community of activists who are literally fighting for their existence, myself included. Tears have become a frequent part of my life lately. They come in quiet moments, during brief pauses in our relentless efforts, upon hearing news, and in response to environmental and social discourses that perpetuate oppressive systems. I grieve for my own future, for the generations that will follow, and for the billions whose voices remain unheard. The climate crisis is intertwined with every form of systemic injustice, requiring responses that are comprehensive and systemic in nature. Although I've only recently begun to discover my voice as a climate and animal rights activist over the last two years, my resolve is deeply rooted in my relationship with injustice; fighting against it is my life force. I stand in solidarity with all groups who non-violently fight oppressive systems & for their liberation from colonial structures, for we are all united in one struggle, one fight. I am with you.

“I am no longer accepting the things I cannot change. I am changing the things I cannot accept.” - Angela Y. Davis

In preparation for COP28, I spent the three months prior assembling a small team of scientists, in collaboration with the Plant Based Treaty, to evaluate the impact of global food system against the planetary boundary framework. Our focus was to analyze the current state and future trajectories of our climate, particularly in terms of the potential role the global food system plays in mitigation and adaptation efforts. We relied on the latest climate science findings from the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) to examine land-use and changes in land-use within the context of earth system science. This approach provided us with a holistic and systemic perspective on the role and impact of the global food system. Furthermore, we drew inspiration from modern economic models, like the Doughnut Economic Model, as a framework for transitioning towards an ecologically safe and socially just global food system. Our efforts culminated in a 146-page report, which is accessible here, along with the complete COP28 Press Conference here. Below, I highlight the key narrative and major points from our work, arguing the critical importance of food systems in addressing the planetary crisis and in the regeneration of the biosphere's resilience.

Disclaimer: All personal efforts were performed on a volunteer basis, and independently to my role at the European Space Agency (ESA).

The 1.5°C Physical Threshold

Recent publications from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggest 2023 is on track to be the warmest year yet, and combined with a strengthening El Ni?o event, current atmospheric GHG levels will boost global warming to record levels, making it very likely that we will temporarily breach the 1.5°C threshold for at least one year in the next five years – but what is so important about this 1.5°C climate target?

The Stockholm Resilience Centre identifies several large biophysical systems that regulate the state of the entire climate system on Earth, also referred to as Climate Tipping Elements (CTEs). Each tipping element has multiple stable states (e.g., frozen or liquified ice sheets), and at a specific temperature threshold, where they change from self-cooling to self-warming or from carbon sink to carbon emitter. In other words, surpassing these temperature threshold activates a self-amplifying process, creating a feedback loop that results in a runaway effect. Nine of them are considered global tipping elements which have the capacity to destabilize Earth's systems, threatening the overall functioning of our planet and jeopardizing the systems that support life. We cannot currently dismiss the possibility that tipping points for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) have already been crossed. Additionally, several other climate tipping elements have minimum threshold values falling within the range of 1.1 to 1.5°C. This suggests that the Earth may have already moved beyond a safe climate state once global warming exceeded 1°C.

Five climate tipping elements are already in a danger zone within a 1.1-1.5°C temperature threshold and a further five are at risk under the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-2.0°C warming limit. Surpassing these thresholds may trigger reinforcing feedback mechanisms, causing their collapse, which in turn could lead to runaway impacts and destabilize the entire Earth system. This implies that, as Johan Rockstr?m points out, “The 1.5°C threshold is a physical limit, not a political target.” As we currently stand, Earth has already experienced 1.2°C of global warming, and we are quickly depleting our 1.5°C carbon budget, using up 3% each month.

To have a 67% chance of staying under 1.5°C, the estimated carbon budget is 150 Gt CO2, which will likely be used by 2026.

For a 50% chance, the budget is 250 Gt CO2, expected to be exhausted by 2029, based on an annual emission rate of 41 Gt CO2. Current trends suggest a rise in global temperatures of +0.23°C per decade, potentially reaching an average increase of 1.5°C by 2034. As of the time this was written, there has been an update to the carbon budget, and a report exceeding 500 pages on climate tipping points has recently been released, available here. Please note, some information provided in this article may now be outdated.

Terrestrial ecosystem decarbonization potential

Scientists have warned us that even if we phase out fossil fuels today, food emissions alone are enough to put the 1.5°C and 2°C targets out of reach. This concern is heightened by the fact that current IPCC climate models optimistically assume the food system shifts from emitting 4Gt CO2 to absorbing 5Gt CO2 within the next two decades, despite very little progress observed in this area.

Transforming the global food system, particularly addressing the impact of animal agriculture on environmental degradation, is as important as ending fossil fuel use.

However, there is still a window of opportunity. Around 0.5°C of the total 1.1°C (as of 2021) global warming is attributed to methane (CH4) emissions, highlighting the significance of addressing CH4 emissions for effective short-term mitigation of global warming. In 2021, the global food system contributed to over 54% of anthropogenic methane emissions, with 36% from animals raised for food, 10% from crop production (mainly rice cultivation), and 8.2% specifically from food waste. Methane’s GWP of 80.8-82.5 over a 20-year time-frame and average 12.4-year atmospheric lifespan means that mitigating these emissions can quickly slow the rate of global warming, buying us essential time for rapid decarbonization of our societies. This mitigation effort begins with the elimination of animal agriculture, as it is the single largest source of anthropogenic methane emissions. The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimate that a 45% reduction in methane emissions by 2030 could prevent a 0.3°C temperature rise by 2045. Transitioning away from animal agriculture creates time to decarbonize the energy sector, transform global food systems into a carbon sink, and restore degraded land to regenerate the biosphere’s resilience.

The current IPCC climate models assume a shift from source to sink in land-use and land-use changes (primarily the food system) in the next two decades. Yet, the AR6’s brief reference of the global food system as “healthy diets,” combined with the forecast of it becoming a carbon sink between 2040 and 2050, underscores an oversight and underestimation of its essential role in the biosphere. The carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems is immense, nearly 60 times more than the global GHG (CO2 equivalents, 2017) emissions by humans annually, with a significant 70% (1500–2400 Gt C) found in soil. Additionally, the ocean has an even greater carbon reservoir, storing around 38,000 Gt of carbon, meaning that marine and terrestrial ecosystems have historically acted as vital carbon dioxide sinks, playing a significant role in climate stabilization.

At the present global average temperature, oceans take in around 25% of yearly carbon emissions and capture over 90% of the heat resulting from those emissions. On the other hand, terrestrial ecosystems like forests, wetlands, and grasslands capture carbon dioxide during their growth, collectively absorbing nearly 30% of human-caused CO2 emissions. Mitigating the carbon emissions from deteriorated lands, equivalent to the levels in terrestrial ecosystems (~450Gt CO2) by restoring these areas, is vital to keep global temperatures in check. Nature-based solutions, ranging from agricultural modifications to reforestation, could provide over 30% of the necessary emission reductions by 2050 to keep global warming well below 2°C.

In the midst of the climate crisis, our narrow focus on carbon emissions suggests that we might have a “carbon tunnel vision”. This tends to overshadow interconnected challenges within the biosphere, especially the rapid decline in biosphere resilience. The resilience of the biosphere influences feedback mechanisms that can either mitigate or amplify global warming through functions that regulate carbon sequestration. At the same time, our planet is experiencing a severe biodiversity crisis, arguably one of the most devastating consequences of anthropogenic forcings on Earth systems. Current data reveals that we are in the midst of the sixth mass extinction, with species disappearing at unprecedented rates. According to Richardon et al. (2023), the current rate of species extinction is believed to be hundreds to thousands of times greater than the average over the last 10 million years, and it’s accelerating. We need to look beyond our carbon tunnel vision; it's more than just climate change.

A food system within planetary boundaries

Most of you are familiar with at least one of the planetary boundaries: climate change. It is earth systems like the climate, the biosphere functions, nutrient flows, and hydrological cycle that have kept the planet in a state with permanent ice caps, flowing rivers, a cloak of forests, reliable weather, and an abundance of life. But with our heavy dependence on fossil fuels, industrial agriculture, and our careless disregard for the environment, we have pushed some of these systems beyond their safe thresholds. In fact, as of September 2023, Rockstr?m et al. have revised the planetary boundary framework, revealing that six boundaries have been crossed, two are close to being exceeded soon, and only one – the ozone layer – is exhibiting signs of improvement.

Everything, including the global food system, should operate within these boundaries. The global food system, which greatly influences every aspect of the biosphere, is a primary driver of environmental degradation. Central to this system is animal agriculture, which has a considerable ecological footprint. The clearing of forests for pastures destroys habitats, releases carbon, and removes crucial carbon sinks. Monocultures for animal feed create biodiversity deserts. Over-reliance on fertilizers results in nitrogen and phosphorus buildup in our soils, with runoff damaging nearby ecosystems. Therefore, it significantly influences Earth's stability and the future of all living on it.

Paradoxically, although the food system is presently the primary source of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss, it is also among the most adversely affected by this deterioration.

Transforming natural ecosystems into agricultural lands and pastures, combined with the impact of agricultural pollution, poses a significant threat to essential ecosystem functions that are fundamental to healthy earth systems. A complete transformation is essential, encompassing modifications in production methods, management of landscapes, and the entire food supply chain. This is crucial since every aspect of the food system, including agriculture, processing, logistics, retail, and consumption, affect Planetary Boundaries. Consequently, each of these areas also presents numerous opportunities for mitigation.

At present, our use of land for food production is highly inefficient. Shifting to plant based diets could decrease land usage by 75% and lower water use by around 20%. Additionally, such a transition could cut the levels of eutrophication and terrestrial acidification by approximately 50%. Furthermore, food systems contribute to a third of global emissions, with animal-based foods generating at least double the emissions of plant-based foods. Despite providing just 37% of global protein and 18% of calories, animal products are responsible for 83% of agricultural land use and 71% of global deforestation.

Ofcourse, this is only about the reduction of resources, and we have not yet discussed the potential for mitigation and regeneration.

Restoring 15% of agricultural land has the potential to sequester 30% of all emissions since the industrial revolution, to conserve 80% of plant & animal species and avoid 60% of their extinction.?

The additional land that is freed up we can either use for ecosystem restoration or to expand low impact farming - but theres more. We shouldn't only talk about diet change, but also about how we farm, how to reduce food waste across the production and supply chain, our view on and our relationship with nature, and start to treat agricultural lands as agroecosystems, and work towards land management systems that work with nature instead of against it.

There is a noticeable inaction in transforming our food system. This was evident at COP28, where governments, institutions, and scientists showed reluctance to address the issue directly. However, there is still a very urgent need for policy makers to take decisive and courageous steps towards a 'Safe and Just' transition of the global food system. We must begin to address the cow in the row. This involves creating a system that operates within the ecological boundaries of our planet while ensuring social justice and inclusivity, leaving no one behind.

To find out more, you can read our report here

Love & Rage ?? ??

References

Lenton, T.M., et al. (2023). Quantifying the human cost of global warming, Nature Sustainability, 6, 1237–1247. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6

Richardson, K., et al. (2023). Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries. Science Advances. 9. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458

Ripple, W. J., et al. (2023). The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory. BioScience. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biad080

Rockstr?m, J., et al. (2023). Safe and just Earth system boundaries. Nature. 619, 102–111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

*Full list of references available in the report