COP28: will the real leaders please stand up?

COP28, this year’s global climate talks, begin in Dubai tomorrow. The Summit won’t solve all of our planetary problems, but it will answer one question decisively: do we have the right leaders for the job?

Eight years ago the world struck a historic agreement to limit global warming to “well below 2 degrees”, aiming for under 1.5. Dubai will end with the first “global stocktake” to assess our progress.

We already know we’re off track. Two years ago, humanity was facing a catastrophic 16% rise in global emissions by 2030 (compared with 2010 levels). Today the projection is a 9% rise. It’s clearly better: we’ve made more progress on decarbonising our economies in the last few years than in the last twenty. Exponential growth in renewable energy and electric vehicles are proving that we can get to positive tipping points when governments and business work together.

But we’re still not moving fast enough. To stay around 1.5 degrees, which science says is needed to keep planet Earth safe and inhabitable, emissions must drop by 42% by the end of the decade.

A dream COP28 would get the world out of fossil fuels without delay. It would precipitate a swift step-change in our patterns of consumption and relationship with nature. It would mobilise capital in a spirit reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, or the pandemic, when huge sums were made available to contain these crises. It would turbocharge fundamental reform of our multilateral financing system, to put climate at its heart. We know these are the transformations we truly need.

And we also know that the Summit’s outcome will be imperfect. International climate cooperation is challenging at the best of times, and certainly during a period of rising geopolitical tension and hot wars in Europe and the Middle East. Add to this the fact that the fossil fuel industry and its backers are in overdrive to protect themselves. They barely hide their delight at the conference being hosted in a petrostate.

So let’s focus on what can be reasonably hoped for in Dubai. COP28 won’t give us everything, but it can be a meaningful stride forward. Success can be measured in the momentum, acceleration and partnership we see on five fronts which are now mission-critical, and as much in the side agreements between states, cities, business and others, as in the official deal.

First, at a minimum, there should be no backsliding on national targets to curb emissions, plus a clear signal from governments that they will respond to the Global Stocktake with more ambitious plans. These are due within the next two years and the Stocktake process, however sobering, can bring new impetus and empower governments to strengthen their commitments, including those fearing resistance at home. Stronger action from industry can give them a push.

Second, we need agreements which speed the energy transition and phase out fossil fuels in a way which keeps 1.5 alive. This includes dismantling the $7 trillion currently given annually in suicidal subsidies to oil, coal and gas, and further tilting the regulatory and funding landscape towards renewables. Globally, our aim should be at least trebling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. The International Energy Agency calculates that achieving this, together with slashing methane, would provide 80% of the emissions cuts needed for 1.5.

Third, reforming our food systems and restoring nature are essential for tackling global warming: this COP can bring these elements centre stage. The Presidency is calling on national governments to include explicit food and land use targets in their national strategies. At last year’s COP15 in Montreal, all governments committed to reverse nature loss by the end of the decade. This, too, should be translated into actionable plans.

Fourth, COP28’s most important test is ramping up the investment we need to address climate change. Delivering the needed $3tr a year will require bold and innovative approaches which accelerate public investment, mobilise private finance at scale, boost flows from multilateral development banks into emerging markets, and tackle the indebtedness and liquidity many of these countries face. COP28 can’t secure all of this, but it can set a clearer direction of travel. Wealthier nations coming good on the $100bn a year long-promised to poorer countries can build trust. So would operationalising the Loss and Damage Fund agreed last year.

Fifth is humanity and inclusion, and putting people’s real lives into the picture. There will be a full day devoted to the impact of climate change on health: this should help. And can we, finally, hear and amplify the voices of communities on the climate front line? The smallholder farmers, the coal workers, the young, the indigenous peoples and others: groups who will be pivotal in turning high-level agreements into on-the-ground success.

In principle, these aims should all be achievable. If we fail, one thing will be clear: the wrong people are in charge. Whatever happens in Dubai, in two weeks we’ll be able to point to the Heads of State and CEOs who step up for our shared interests, and those who shrink in pursuit of self-interest. If nothing else, this COP will peel away the excuses of a vested order bent on saving its own skin, and it will shine a light on those with the courage and vision to set humanity on a better path. Onward to Dubai. Will the real leaders please stand up?

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