COP28 climate talks close in Dubai with a significant outcome and work to do

After an eventful and at times tense couple of weeks of negotiations in Dubai, COP28 came to a close yesterday. The final suite of decisions under the ‘UAE Consensus’ provide a clear direction on energy transition and complement a deluge of announcements and pledges. As with most COPs, significant work remains to deliver on the direction provided. Despite the best efforts of exhausted negotiators, consensus was not reached on two Article 6 elements, adding to the need to accelerate work further in 2024.

In this post, I provide a brief summary of key outcomes from COP28.

Global Stock Take (GST)

With the clock in ‘extra time’ Parties worked tirelessly to reach consensus on agreed outcomes and direction from, the first global stock take under the Paris Agreement. The final decision is a significant and carefully balanced compromise, which explicitly calls for the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

The decision sets out the outcomes of the first global stock take, including collective progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, and direction on mitigation, adaptation, means of implementation (finance, technology and capacity building). Also, it includes content on loss and damage and response measures, and provides guidance to Parties on ways forward.

While some Parties noted that elements of the final decision fell short of what they sought, most interventions at the closing plenary highlighted unification around the common commitment to move away from fossil fuels. In addition, and importantly, the GST decision:

• recognises the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5 degrees C pathways;
• calls for a tripling in renewable energy capacity globally and a doubling of global average energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as well as efforts to phase-down unabated coal power;
• recognises key findings of the IPCC and climate science, including that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050; and
• highlights the need for shifts and acceleration in finance and adaptation.

Further, it calls for accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, as well as adaptation finance for developing countries, including with respect to investments needed in clean energy.

The decision builds on developments at COP28 regarding agriculture and food systems, including the Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action (Emirates Declaration). The final decision urges Parties (and invites non-Party stakeholders) to increase ambition and enhance adaptation action and support to accelerate swift action at scale and at all levels towards the achievement of attaining climate-resilient food and agricultural production and supply and distribution of food.

The COP28 President and many Party interventions at the closing plenary described the final text as a commitment to multilateralism. Continuing this cooperation will be important as Parties work to fully implement the options, urgings and direction contemplated by the decision, including with respect to revised NDCs and transparency reports over the coming 24 months.

Adaptation, loss and damage, finance

Following the rapid adoption of the loss and damage fund at the opening plenary over two weeks ago, and associated pledges totalling more than USD700 million, decisions were agreed on the Global Goal on Adaptation (including targets) and finance matters. On finance, this includes steps over the coming year with respect to the new collective quantifiable goal on climate finance. Next year will be busy for finance negotiators as Parties aim to establish the new finance goal at COP29 at the end of 2024 and work to increase adaptation finance commitments and delivery.

Agriculture

As noted above, there were significant developments in relation to agriculture and food systems at COP28, including the Emirates Declaration (now joined by over 150 countries) and content adopted in the GST decision. Alongside these developments and other pledges, global food companies Bel Group, Danone, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Lactalis USA and Nestlé announced the Dairy Methane Action Alliance and their commitment to begin reporting their methane emissions by mid-2024. Formal progress in negotiations was slower, but will continue next year.

Article 6

Despite the efforts and commitment of negotiators, and an intense schedule during the two weeks of COP28, Parties were not able to find consensus on further guidance under Article 6.2 and on details to operationalise Article 6.4.

In relation to both agenda items, Parties will continue work under the UNFCCC subsidiary body for scientific and technical advice (SBSTA) in 2024.

Further guidance on Article 6.2 cooperative approaches, including in relation to reporting, authorisation details and registry operation, would be beneficial in providing greater clarity and consistency. It is anticipated that Parties will continue to work to provide this operative guidance over the coming year, informed by the discussions in Dubai.

Similarly, Parties and the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body will continue work mandated from COP27 at Sharm el Sheikh. This includes work on a sustainable development tool, grievance and appeals processes and other items needed to fully operationalise the centralised market mechanism. ?

Parties agreed decision text and a work plan for non-market approaches under Article 6.8. Consensus followed some debate over whether references to carbon pricing or finance should be included in earlier draft texts (as well as references to nature-based solutions), reflecting discussion in roundtables and workshops. Ultimately these references were omitted from the final decision document and the Parties landed a more streamlined text focusing on implementing a web-based platform to share non-market approaches.

While some will be disappointed with the overall outcome on Article 6 and fear it may create uncertainty for carbon markets, the outcome of COP28 does not disturb previous decisions under Article 6. These decisions enable an increasing number of agreements between country-parties to establish frameworks for the international transfer of mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) under Article 6.2.

Further, the outcome does not alter or reduce the need for work in several countries to build readiness to participate in carbon markets that align with, and best fit, their national circumstances and nationally determined contributions. Alongside Article 6 market readiness, these may include ‘hybrid’ carbon trading governance frameworks, that blend domestic regulatory settings or carbon pricing with the use of high integrity emissions reduction units issued under international carbon standards.

Useful operative details on Article 6 markets were not agreed in Dubai, however the GST decision at COP28 confirms the direction of ongoing activity in relation to carbon markets, including nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based approaches (and provision of multiple associated co-benefits). The decision emphasises the use of voluntary cooperation referred to in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (Decision -/CMA5 (advanced version), paragraph 31) and the potential under Article 6.8 (Decision -/CMA5 (advanced version), paragraph 32).

Next steps

COP28 in Dubai may not have delivered comprehensive packages across all workstreams, but progress was made. The persistence of Parties in reaching agreement on significant outcomes, including a “global green light” on renewables, adopting of the loss and damage fund and agreeing common language to transition energy systems is significant. However, work remains to progress adaptation, finance and key operational details under Article 6.

With a mid-year stop in Bonn, Parties will need to carry momentum forward as they take a large work plan to Azerbaijan for COP29 at the end of 2024.

I look forward to discussing the outcomes with you over the coming months.

~ Emily