COP21 : New Year’s Resolutions ?->!

Following the 48th session of the IPPC in Incheon, Korea of Oct 1-5, 2018, the '? sign' over the original article, written after the 2015 COP21, has been changed into a '! sign'

The Conference of Parties (COP) is the supreme decision-making body of the Convention on Climate Change. The COP21 final text states that global warming should stay 'well below 2°degrees' reports politico-report-on-final-climate-text What counts are the actions that the 195 nations will take, not their non-binding promises ! On Dec 4th Science published the above graph linking emission changes with temperature changes. The blue lines indicate different emission pathways, resulting from the choices for actions the 195 nations will make. The right part of the graphs shows the climate warming results of these choices. The ‘well below 2°degrees’ probability range is indicated by the grey shading.

The common understanding amongst scientists is that the world is on track for at least 3.5°degrees of warming. A COP21 'chocolate bars’ sticker on a ‘reality box' of cigars will not turn the cigars into chocolate bars. Even the most ambitious Emission Pathway, called 'Paris Increased Ambition', only gives a 30% probability to contain temperature rise to 2°degrees, which is considered insufficient by many scientists. The probability of containing it to 1.5°degrees is a mere 5%, which makes the promise of 'well below 2°degrees’ rather like a New Years resolution. Unless two major changes will be made, which together have the potential to bring about a paradigm shift :

• Transform Economy to become a tool to optimise the balance between planetary boundaries and social equity. Today economic growth is the primary objective with social & ecological consequences only secondary. 
• Transform Education to prepare humanity becoming more resilient and future proof for 21st century challenges that are already becoming quite clear. 

Which 3 Barriers hold us back to convert the COP21 Climate Deal that was accepted into actions that most people intuitively know we have to make ?

Which 3 Pillars can strengthen resilience and help close the gap between aspiration of the COP21 Climate Deal and the reality facing us ?

3 BARRIERS holding us back from realising the COP21 Climate Deal

1 - Demographic developments The graph shows that in order to limit temperature rise to 2°degrees, the downswing in emissions required over the next few decades basically has to mirror the upswing since the reference year 1990. A crucial difference, however, is the number of people involved . There are over 50% more people in the downswing period than there were in the upswing. Few people realise that one of the most significant events in the history of our species has been that we started the 20th century with about 1.5 billion people and ended it with about 6.5 billion. An unprecedented population increase of 5 billion in a single century. This - more than anything else - drives our future.

Concretely it means that large parts of any innovation will first be absorbed by the demographic & economic growth, before giving any ecological net benefit. As indeed the NYT reported this week : ‘Cars may get twice as energy efficient. But with twice as many cars in 2050, they will still consume the same amount of energy’. Thus only efficiency improvements beyond doubling will yield net benefits in energy consumption. The challenge can only be met by addressing both energy supply and energy demand. ALL ways to decarbonise (incl Sustainable Bio, nuclear & CCS) are needed. And new battery related ‘rare earths’ problems should be avoided.

Note that in spite of the absence of an exhaust pipe, electric vehicles do emit CO2 in accordance with the energy mix used for power generation in the country in which they drive. In France electric cars run mostly on nuclear energy. In Poland they run mostly on coal and thus emit more CO2 than conventional cars. 

2 - Political Will is Volatile The 195 governments that signed the Paris Climate Deal at the end of the COP21 will have to start soon to agree on actions and to sustain these over time to be effective. In politics a week is a long time.

Moreover the 2015 Edelman Trust Barometer shows a further global decline in trust over the last year, and the number of countries with trusted institutions has fallen to an all-time low, including Governments.

This is a very difficult environment in which to plan a Paradigm Shift. In this Crisis of Trust electorates have been punishing governments in the polls. Sadly populist and extreme parties are even less likely to hold holistic views and care for legislation that seeks to introduce planetary boundaries, social equity and intergenerational solidarity than more moderate parties in the centre. 

3 - The inertia & non-circular nature of our economic system. It only takes basic numeracy to understand that infinity cannot exist in a finite environment. Growth of the ‘take-make-dispose’ type is simply not sustainable. The good news is that emerging technologies such as Internet of Things, Advanced Robotics, Self driving cars, 3D printing, Advanced materials combined with IT, bio and nano technology developments are rapidly converging in an exponential way that begins to make a decoupling of economic growth from natural resource use growth possible.

It will bring about significant change in business and social landscapes in ways most of us cannot begin to imagine. We are already transitioning from a industrial society and moving into a new one characterised by a different logic, to which the players/citizens need to adapt. But making endings and new beginnings is always unsettling. Without trust or insight, people may slam the brakes, causing further delays.

Guiding society through this paradigm shift requires higher levels of trust, empathic leadership and persuasive communication. How do we build this ?

3 PILLARS to strengthen societal resilience in the 21st century

1 - Grow Planetary Awareness : A correct diagnosis is an important first step for any cure. Never before have we been so interlinked and interdependent. Therefore a global awareness is needed. Organisations like Global Footprint help in visualising relevant information both over time and between countries.

Walking around various pavilions at COP21 after my talk in an Erasmus+ panel about Education & Climate Change, the stalls of various indigenous people made acutely clear how we literally live in a globalised world : They live closer to nature and in better balance with it than we do. Yet they are the ones whose lives will be disrupted first by global warming. 

• The richest 1 billion are now aware of the effects that historic and current natural resource use has had and that we would need many more planets if everyone on earth lived like them. They also begin to realise if other people can not live where they are, they will move to live where they can. Climate change may cause a lot of migration.
• The poorest 6 billion realise they will suffer most from climate warming (desertification, sea level rise, dried up rivers, etc). They begin to realise that they can not develop their economies in the same way as the rich world has. Countries 'in the middle' such as Brasil, China & India already are amongst the world largest CO2 emitters, albeit not on a per capita basis. But last century’s population explosion occurred mostly in NDC’s.

Both will need to find a new economic model to balance planetary boundaries and social equity. Programmes like Erasmus changing lives & opening minds, contribute to people feeling more connected and this in turn builds trust.

2 - Foster Scale for Innovation : The future already exists in the R&D centres around the world and in the minds of young people, be they leaders or volunteers in transition towns, resilience communities or entrepreneurs. However, for innovation to have impact, it needs to be rolled out at scale.

For this policy makers need to ensure supportive framework conditions. Not picking winners, but setting high level policy objectives. Winners will be those that meet the objectives best. A robust CO2 price would help or taxing new natural resource use (but encourage recycling), tax income & training less so companies are encouraged to employ and train people. Thus innovation can be directed to serve social and planetary goals. These framework conditions should be stable over time and grow into the new ’normal' and drive change in the desired direction and at the necessary speed.

The final hurdle for rolling out innovation at scale is societal acceptance. After NIMTO (Not In My Term of Office) hurdles with politicians, the NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) hurdles amongst citizens can cause delays. Besides better communication and education, benefit sharing schemes for individuals who incur disadvantages of projects that benefit society should be put in place to maintain speed.

3 - Educate for the 21st century : We educate people for jobs that do not yet exist, to solve problems we are not even yet aware off. But some changes are ‘no-brainers’ and non-regret option.

Early December the Dutch National Thinktank - composed of young graduates, who following a 4 month think tank process during which they investigate an issue of national relevance, come up with recommendations to the Government - published their report on Learning in the Future with 10 recommendations, incl coaching for new parents, parental leave, interactions between ‘black’ & ‘white’ schools, between different school levels, teacher support and encouraging people to combine working and teaching, in order to make schools a place where all children are better prepared for their future. So far only available in Dutch but very much worth a read. Hopefully the Dutch EU Presidency will share this. 

Ever faster obsolescence cycles also for knowledge makes learning how to learn a key competence. Or as Alvin Toffler said : "The illiterates of the 21st century are not those who can not read and write, but those that can not learn, unlearn and relearn".

21st century education should comprise :

• Cognitive Skills - What you know : including coding, robotics and entrepreneurship.
• Socialisation - How you use what you know : including team work, critical thinking and creativity.
• Personal Development - How you engage with the world : including mindfulness, balance, resilience, courage, ethics 

Given the situation we are in, the complexity of challenges and solutions required, an appropriate way to paraphrase Churchill would be “A well educated population is the greatest asset our future can hope for”

Perhaps what education should teach us most of all is the paradox that : 

       Everything we depend on…. in turn depends on us !