COP out: Trump goes, Europe stays – what’s next for climate?

For the second time in as many inaugurations, US President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris Climate Agreement. This comes as a shock to few, given he did the same thing last time he was president back in 2017, and his campaign trail was littered with calls to unleash US energy (i.e. US fossil fuels) upon the world. But much like the last time, most signatories are unlikely to waiver at this news. Although it is bad news for the climate, it is not as apocalyptic as it may seem to be. The US represents less than 12% of total greenhouse gas emissions nowadays – the EU27 is just half that. Furthermore, most signatories remain committed to the cause of climate action despite, not because of, the United States’ status.

European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen , made the EU’s committement quite clear in her speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, saying “the Paris Agreement continues to be the best hope for all humanity. So, Europe will stay the course and keep working with all nations that want to protect nature and stop global warming.”

Meanwhile, the Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth, Wopke Hoekstra , also noted that it was unfortunate that the world’s biggest economy would withdraw, but reiterated that, “despite this setback, we remain committed to working with the US and our international partners to address the pressing issue of climate change,” further noting the “strong foundations” of the Paris deal.

So, while US policy for the foreseeable four years will disregard limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the EU will forge on. How so? Here’s what we can expect.

Implementing the green transition

The European Commission has sought to smooth over fears that Mr Trump’s energy and climate policies could undermine the bloc’s net zero commitments. The Commission’s energy spokesperson, Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told POLITICO Europe earlier this week that, while it is not helpful “to speculate on [LNG] volumes because we’re not there yet … we have our own very ambitious climate and energy policies and will obviously stick to them — it’s now more important than ever to uphold the spirit of the Paris Agreement.”

What are these ambitious climate and energy policies?

First, the 2019 Green Deal set the EU’s long-term ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The strategy includes a comprehensive framework to improve energy efficiency, boost renewable energy capacity and foster a circular economy. This transformative vision has placed Europe at the forefront of global climate action.

The Fit for 55 package, introduced in 2021 as the framework to deliver the Green Deal, operationalised these ambitions by targeting a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Core elements include expanding the Emissions Trading System (ETS), increasing carbon pricing and setting stringent sectoral targets for transportation, energy and buildings.

The REPowerEU plan, adopted in response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, has further accelerated this transition by reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuels. It includes fast-tracking renewable energy deployment and securing alternative energy supplies, positioning Europe as a leader in energy resilience and sustainability.

Together, these initiatives showcase Europe’s resolve to achieve a green transition, irrespective of global uncertainties. In fact, a recent report from Ember finds that in the five years since the rollout of the Green Deal, wind and solar growth has displaced €59 billion worth of fossil imports, with €53 billion from fossil gas alone. Today, renewables generate nearly half of all electricity in the EU with nuclear taking another quarter of the share, meaning we only rely on fossil fuels for a quarter of all electricity. This makes electrification the clear solution to decarbonisation efforts.

Where to from here?

The US’s withdrawal and renewed focus on fossil fuel production under Mr Trump’s leadership is expected to lead to increased drilling for oil and gas, potentially driving down global prices. Indeed, as of this Monday, the US Department of Energy has said that it will resume processing applications from companies to export natural gas. The action came a mere hours after Mr Trump signed an executive order officially lifting the year-long pause that the outgoing Biden Administration placed on processing gas export applications. While this could provide temporary economic relief, it risks undermining global decarbonisation efforts. Europe, however, remains steadfast.

A significant development on the horizon this year is the EU’s 2040 climate target, expected to aim for a 90% reduction in GHG emissions. As we have heard from commissioners so far, this might be achieved via the scaling up of existing mechanisms such as the ETS, which could see broader application across sectors. Additionally, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will play a critical role in ensuring global competitiveness and preventing carbon leakage.

Key to success in our view is an Electrification Action Plan (EAP), which envisions an EU electrification bank to support the transition to electrified solutions. Eurelectric’s advocacy alongside our allies in the Electrification Alliance has been instrumental in shaping this initiative and we are expecting it to come in the earlier part of this year.

Our Decarbonisation Speedways study from 2023 underscores the feasibility of achieving 58-71% electrification by 2050 to meet climate targets. Sectoral electrification and integrating renewables into grids will be pivotal to this. From transportation to heavy industry, the shift to electricity-powered processes can reduce emissions dramatically, but it requires robust infrastructure and supportive policies.

Mr Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement may signal a challenging geopolitical landscape, but it does not diminish Europe’s determination. The EU’s climate policies, backed by comprehensive initiatives and strong public support provide a robust foundation for achieving net zero.

Electricity remains at the heart of this transformation. By advancing electrification, enhancing renewable energy integration and ensuring equitable climate policies, Europe can not only meet its ambitious goals but also inspire global progress while delivering competitiveness to consumers at home. The path forward demands collaboration, innovation and resilience, ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come.

This week’s edition’s written by:

Boris Kyrychenko Strategic Communications Trainee - Eurelectric

With technical input from:

Nicholas A. Steinwand Policy Communications Advisor - Eurelectric

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