COP-28 and The Trilemma of Energy

United Nations International Conference on Climate Change is an annual event of 197 countries that dwell upon various issues on the challenges of global warming on human life for sustainable development by striking a balance between development and environmental conservation. The process started at the 1972 Earth Summit in Stockholm and then culminated in the formation of the United Nations Framework for Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 at Rio De Janeiro Earth Summit.

COP28 stands for the 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP). It is taking place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates from 30 November to 12 December 2023. The first COP meeting was held in Berlin, Germany in March 1995, the second in Geneva in 1996, and the third in Kyoto, Japan where the Kyoto Protocol was signed. The main decision of the Kyoto Protocol was that the 37 developed countries including the EU should reduce their carbon emissions as their commitment to the historical damage caused to the atmosphere in the post-industrial era. The US was not agreeable to this and withdrew itself from COP -7 following the decision for a mandatory reduction in carbon emissions as per COP 6. In 2009, at COP 15, the developed countries promised to contribute US$100 Billion as climate finance towards combating the damages for mitigation and adaptation for the developing countries which remains a pipe dream even today. In the meantime, the COP21 decided to sign the Paris Agreement in 2015 with a roadmap to reduce the carbon emissions in the atmosphere by 50 percent from the level of 2019 to restrict the earth's temperature below 2 percent by the end of the century and to arrive at net zero emission level by 2050 and maintaining the earth temperature below 1.5 degree Celsius as compared to the average temperature of pre-industrial era up to 1850. Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased substantially since the beginning of the industrial era, rising from an annual average of 280 ppm in the late 1700s to 414 ppm in 2021.

It is worth noting that the historical accumulation of 2400 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere since the mid-19th century is primarily by the developed countries. South Asian countries emit just over 1.5 tons of CO2 per capita per year and Africans about 0.8 tons, while North America emit 17 tons per capita per year and Europeans around 8 tons per capita per year. Therefore, it is the primary obligation of the industrialized countries to reduce their missions and compensate the developing countries and the least developed countries and allow them special and differential treatment towards their obligations for GHG gas emissions. This transition from a carbon economy to a green economy will cost US$275 trillion beginning 2021 to 2050 as per a report prepared by McKinsey.

However, the USA is always playing a double game and COP -25 in 2019 again withdrew from the Paris Agreement under the Trump Era but rejoined in 2021 under the Biden Administration. There is a five-year plan to review the National Determined Commitment (NDC) and India has been fulfilling its obligations as per our commitment and is rather a little ahead and our Prime Minister reiterated in COP 2026 at Glasgow and again in COP -28 in Dubai on the opening day that our Carbon emission intensity in our GDP has come down by 45% and We are committed to use nonfossil- fuel for our electricity generation up to 50 percent by 2030. It should be noted that the use of energy from renewable sources such as wind, solar, and other biological resources is our priority, and we can achieve the Net Zero target by 2070. Prime Minister Modi has also announced a Green Credit Initiative through people’s participation which will have a positive impact on creating carbon sinks across the world which is a little different from carbon credit which is purely on monetary incentives. Carbon sinks are essentially anything that absorbs more carbon from the atmosphere than it releases.

It is also very important to understand that the use of fossil fuels cannot be equated amongst the countries as per a single yardstick. There is a difference in the per capita emission in each country and particularly the developed countries’ emissions are more than 60% even though their population is less than 15% (please refer to Figure 1). Secondly, our natural resources are mainly from Coal (approximately 50% of India’s energy consumption and 60% by China) and therefore even though we are dependent on oil and gas from imports, we must maintain our Energy Security with our local resources of coal and imported oil and gas to provide the energy for development at affordable prices keeping in mind our obligations for environment and sustainability (please refer Figure 2). This is called the Energy Trilemma, which requires a balance between energy security, energy safety, and sustainability. Trilemma Index (“WETI”) means sustainable development for meeting human needs with the end goal of ensuring well-being and improving quality of life. In brief, the three ingredients of the energy trilemma can be briefly understood below:

• Energy security: implies the methodology and policy to meet the current and future energy demand of the people in a particular country taking into account management, efficiency, reliability, and resilience to shocks that entail supply disruptions.
• Energy equity: implies the ability of a nation to provide the population with access to an energy supply with a focus on the affordability of the supply at a reasonable price.
• Energy sustainability: means avoiding environmental degradation and the impacts of climate change, thereby, enhancing the productivity and efficiency of generation and distribution of energy through a process of decarbonization and healthy air quality.

Our Prime Minister stated at COP 28 to maintain a balance between mitigation and adaptation and said that energy transition across the world must be “just and inclusive.” He also urged rich countries to transfer technologies to help developing nations combat climate change.

COP28 has operationalized the loss and damage which was initiated at COP27, and Dubai has made a beginning with US$475 million loss and damage fund with contributions from various countries. The “loss and damage” refers to the estimated economic, non-economic, and ecological losses caused by to ongoing and future impacts of climate change.

The major agenda for COP28 should be as below:

• Dealing with the issues of climate finance;
• Dealing with the critical issues arising from global warming such as melting of glaciers, increasing sea level, drought, floods, landslides, wildfire, changes in the agroclimatic zones;Issues of mitigation that is by adapting technologies and other methods for reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases including methane which is 80 times more dangerous than CO2 and which contributes to almost 50% of global warming today;Dealing with the issues related to adaptation to climate change by providing requisite infrastructure to the climate refugees affected by floods and cyclones in the coastal areas and for building conducive infrastructure and for a gradual transition from a carbon economy to a green economy such as the use of renewable energy and use of electrical vehicles and so on;
• Investment in the areas of new technology such as CCUS – Carbon capture, utilization, and storage. Reaching net zero will be virtually impossible without CCUS, as per the report of IEA in 2021;
• Dealing with the problem of permafrost thawing.
• In summary, the findings of the sixth assessment report of the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) should be adhered to in true spirits by all the member countries as per the rules and standards set out in the Paris agreement and above all the society should follow the path of sustainable consumption by adapting the environment-friendly lifestyle. The emphasis should be on circular economy by solid waste management and by minimizing the wastage in day-to-day life so that the mother earth can be saved from the vagaries of global warming and the pollution in air, water, and soil for a qualitative life for future generations.