COP 26 -A planned failure

1 - ECONOMIC FRAILTY. The phrase "it's all about money - stupid" is never more apropos than today. In a world trying to recover from a pandemic that has brought misery and suffering to most of the world, rich and poor nations alike are being asked to deliver on promises that will require a huge amount of investment with projected returns 10+ years down the road, at best.

Even in developed nations like the USA, China, Russia, EU, UK, infrastructure issues abound. Energy systems globally are still bound to coal and other fossil fuels. Both Australia and China, have publicly declared that they have to ramp up their coal plants due to - believe it or not - climate issues! The very concept that we are supposed to be running from, is required to bring relief from further economic crises. Let's not forget that many Government coffers will take a hit on losing imposed gas tariffs. So getting rid of fossils is not going to be easy.

One light at the end of the tunnel is the worldwide transition from fossil fuel vehicles to electric vehicles. The investment is being made to build but there is still a need to invest in fast-charging stations, and we still have to convince the public to buy or lease. If we project a bi-annual turnover of vehicles then within 10 years, there should be enough electric vehicles on our roads to make a difference in the CO2 emissions.

NUMBER 2 - A TOOTHLESS LEADER

2, - within days, the world will have gathered in Scotland to set the goals for a world in peril. In the SDGs submitted so far, most of the participants will fail to meet their previous goals and will submit new initiatives. The powerhouses like the US, China, The UK, and The EU have already walked back their targets to a 2050 goal of being NET-ZERO CARBON. This means that they will not generate more CO2 than they absorb across all boundaries. More about this later...

It is doubtful that the USA under Biden will be able to lead the world after a disastrous episode with Trump. It is generally known and understood that the will is there but the politics being exhibited by one selfish coal mine owner-operator who also happens to be a senator is blocking all aspects of a sweeping change to the fossil fuel industry in the USA. As mentioned before, both China and Australia are ramping up coal production and Russia is chomping at the bit to export more gas to Europe. It's unbelievable that on the cusp of a landmark event to change the world we exist in, those that can make a difference are all walking in the wrong direction and trying to make everyone believe that all is well.

Given the above, it begs the question as to what the leader of this global initiative can do to enforce adherence to promised SDGs. The answer is simple - NOT A THING. The UN is a toothless tiger with little or no arrows in its quiver to enforce adherence to SDGs.

"Under oath and facing harsh questioning, the heads of some of the world’s largest oil companies denied Thursday they knew their products were driving climate change and lied about it, saying they acted in good faith to cut emissions and were merely following the science at the time." NBC News Oct 29, 2021

3 - In 1921, the Dow (inflation-adjusted) stood at 1021+. Today, 100 years later, the DJIA stands at a lofty 35,800+ and growing. This 3500% increase in industrial wealth was not a happen chance event. It was a sustained and forceful focus by the rich and powerful to build and sustain wealth, much of which still remains under the control of less than 1% of the world's population. Along the way, the fierce competition took little notice of the environment and in many ways, it was ok to abuse said environment to achieve the economic advantage necessary to win.

One hundred years later, we (the general populace - not the wealthy) realize that the industrial game is a zero-sum game for the poor and disadvantaged and we need to change it. So now, we the people (the poor ones) want to tell the rich ones (with the wealth) that the rules of the game need to change. Our message is, if you don't change, mother nature will step in and it will be catastrophic. While the message may be accurate, the wealthy, by and large, are immune to these messages and events and will actively campaign against any initiatives to reign in their actions.

The powerful corporations are tied to generating wealth on behalf of their stockholders. This was the mantra of the 80's and 90's and still is today. There will be lip service paid to actions supporting Environmental Sustainability but the reality will be glossed over by media firms. As an example, take a looks at GE's amazing sustainable performance reports. At first glance, it appears that this company has taken great steps forward in its environmental responsibility. Look beneath the covers and it's obvious that they are referring to REVENUE SUSTAINABILITY and the efforts they have made to reduce non-profitable actions.

Four - Pick any image from the above gallery. They all represent areas of extreme global weather conditions that have exceeded the normal weather patterns and all just incidentally happened in 2021. The message is clear - DISASTER IS AN EVER PRESENT DANGER.

This brings me to my fourth point, DRM - Disaster Risk Mitigation.

Disaster Risk Mitigation is a way in which we prepare and respond to natural disasters that represent dangers to our societies and our abilities to survive. Prepare and Respond are actions with specific imperatives that relate to a region's preponderance to certain kinds of disasters but with time place and magnitude unknown. You know something of a certain kind may happen but you don't know when and where and how disastrous it will be.

Presently, the COP-26 discussion is how to do what is necessary to try and avert the catastrophic dangers. However, with rising oceans across the world, countries are having to deal with losing shorelines, communities, and livelihoods. Reducing global warming and the CO2 and Methane reductions will help to cool the earth. However just as it started, it will take a lot longer to reverse the temperature and so our mission is also now how to respond to the IMMINENT DISASTERS. This section is not about averting more disasters. It is about what to do when disasters occur and at times when we cannot predict.

Whenever a disaster occurs, the economic devastation is worse than the actual incident and affects lives for years to come. Flash floods wipe out communities and homes and make people homeless. Hurricanes destroy whatever gets in their way and it takes months and years to recover. A winter storm in Texas took out the entire state's energy grid. Its impact lasted for months for power to be fully restored. In North Africa, drought conditions are so severe that it is unlikely that arable land will ever return. Less than 3 thousand kilometers away in Lagos, Nigeria rising tides are devastating fishing villages in a way that they will never return.

To only consider that there is something that can be done immediately to stop this devastation is cruel and inhumane. Here's why. Promises made today at COP-26 for funds to be made available to prevent imminent catastrophes are years too late. The Funds, if they ever appear, will take years of administrative wrangling to be disbursed. The plans to be executed will take another 5 to 10 years to be put in place. The reality of these missions benefits only those who are not currently experiencing the traumas of devastation.

MONEY MONEY MONEY

always sunny...

IN A RICH MAN'S WORLD

A verse from ABBA's song by the same name

Five - As ABBA's song rightly puts it, it's always sunny in a rich man's world and if only we had the money, we would not be having COP26. We could take all that money and put it to good use and stop the slaughter of our universe.

The only reason we are having COP 26 is to convince the rich nations that the sun is not shining in our part of the world and we need money to fix it. Well, there is good news and bad news..

The GOOD NEWS is - THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF MONEY.

The BAD NEWS is - WE ARE NOT ALLOWED TO GET OUR HANDS ON IT.

For the past 120+ years, our tightly managed economic system has led us to believe that money is a scarce commodity and it is that scarcity that adds economic value to the money. We live in a world where every dollar or any currency that enters our economic system is regulated in such a manner that a collection of GLOBAL REGULATORS, CENTRAL BANKS, BANKS, GOVERNMENTS, NGOs, and financial institutions abide by a set of rules that limits how much money enters and leaves a country's economic zone. It is a system that has survived wars, economic market collapses, and other catastrophes including climate change, and good or bad is it supposed to be the ultimate guardrail for economic survival. UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOES LEND ITSELF TO ABUSE BY THE HAVEs AGAINST THE HAVENOTs

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Tejal Kanitkar (@kanitkarT) Nov 9, 2021

I encourage the reader to review the above COP-26 financial negotiations as an example of just how little the poorer countries will get in any financial allocations.

There are two points here. The first is that the global financial safeguards that are there to protect the poorer countries become the very barriers to prevent them from getting the help they need. The second point is any help that is ultimately provided comes in the form of loans which only further increases the debt burdens of these nations.

My final point regarding money is this. There are viable solutions to these financial problems but it must come from out-of-the-box thinking. Trillions of dollars currently sit in off-ledger accounts that cannot be brought back into circulation without violating current fiscal policies and it is unlikely that such funds will ever be made available even under the guise of "HUMANITARIAN NEED". We need to revise our economic policies and how we measure money flow (M0, M1, M2, M3) in our economic systems.

I made this three weeks ago and waited to see what would happen at COP-26. True to form, the financial negotiations at the end were supposed to give some sort of direction on how we would fund our path forward and I strongly doubt that without a PhD in economics, its unintelligible. As Greta rightly put it BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.