Conversing About Coronavirus
As my previous article suggested, numbers are the currency of conversation when talking about Coronavirus. Questions arise such as: How many people died? In what geographic area? What is the area’s population? To tie the data all together, percentages were calculated to provide a common metric to let us compare individual states and countries.
Now, it’s likely that in recent months, when reading articles about Coronavirus (CV-19), you will have come across the measurement term Deaths per 10,000, or per 100,000 people, frequently used by doctors (a byproduct of their medical school days.) For laymen like you and me, who were taught percentages in elementary school, I prefer to converse in percentages because more people understand them.
So, before my next article, let’s get up-to-date with percentages.
Consider the USA. Its population is 330 million. Currently, our newspapers and news channels are blasting out death figures as if Armageddon is near. But are the headlines significant? Here’s a question: what percentage of our population dying from CV-19 would be a significant number to you —10%? 5%? 1%? 0.10% (one tenth of 1%)? 0.01% (one hundredth of 1%)? Or 0.001% (one thousandth of 1%)?
We’ll tie those numbers and percentages together:
Percent Population
100.00% 330,000,000
10.00% 33,000,000
5.00% 16,500,000
1.00% 3,300,000
0.1% 330,000
0.01% 33,000
0.001% 3,300
Please note there is only one number you need to remember when dealing with US CV-19 deaths! It’s 33,000. Why 33,000? Because 33,000 is one one-hundredth of 1% of the US population (33,000 x100 = 3,300,000, which is 1% of our total population of 330,000,000.) It is a tiny percentage. Therefore, it’s a tiny number. It will, of course, keep growing throughout the year. All we need do is divide each day’s headline death toll by 33,000 (or by the easier 30,000 to get an approx. result—a 10% difference from actual) to learn what’s the latest Death Rate (DR) %.
As I write this (at 3:30PM, US EDT, 24 May, 2020), I checked www.worldometers.info to learn that the latest US coronavirus YTD death total is 99,047. Sounds big. But is it, really? 99,000 ÷ 33,000 = 3. In other words, today’s YTD CV-19 death toll is three one-hundredths of 1% of our population (ie, 0.03%).
My question then to you, dear reader, is when does that percentage become significant to you? This is a decision only you can answer. But before you answer it, let me provide some context. Did any of the following annual death numbers ever get you so riled up that you wanted to have our country economically crippled to minimize them?
Road deaths. Last year, 36,120 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes.
The Flu. The CDC announced that 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the US, the highest death toll in 40 years …reported by Associated Press, Sep 26, 2018
Drugs & Opioids. In the US, there were 67,367 drug overdose deaths reported in 2018. Opioids were involved in 46,802 of them—nearly 70% of the total … ex google 5/19/20
Cancer. In 2019, there will be an estimated 1,762,450 new cancer cases diagnosed and 606,880 cancer deaths in the United States … ex google 5/19/20
Cardiovascular disease. The leading cause of death in the US, responsible for 840,768 deaths (635,260 cardiac) in 2016 … ex google 5/19/20
Hospital-acquired infections. In American hospitals, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) estimates that Healthcare-Acquired Infections (HAIs) account for an estimated 1.7 million infections and 99,000 associated deaths each year (caused by viral, bacterial, and fungal pathogens, pneumonia (eg, ventilator-associated pneumonia [VAP]), urinary tract infection (UTI), and surgical site infection (SSI).)
Noble Words. Or maybe the noble words of some politicians have resonated when they pontificated on television that all lives are sacred and should be saved at all costs. Such, truly, are noble words but have you ever looked behind the politicians’ words? Ask yourself: are these politicians also fighting against life-killing abortion and euthanasia? If not, don’t their words ring a tad hollow?
Please understand that the intent of this article is us having a dialogue; not me being a demagogue. I am not. This an exchange of ideas. I don’t profess to have all the answers. I am a seeker of what’s right. I am simply sharing with you some of the questions I wrestle with as I try to understand CV-19, its impact, and its implications.
Also, looking back, ever since my high school days, I have never forgotten Hamlet’s reflection: Nothing’s right or wrong. Thinking only makes it so.
Bottom line: we have to think CV-19 through ourselves, based on our own values. My goal is to simply to share some of my thoughts along the journey.
I’ll share more in the next post.
Project Manager, PM at AholdDelhaize USA
4 å¹´Well said Brian
Brian, thanks for this article. It is indeed very important to get proper perspective on the COVID-19 death rate, and comparing US death totals from COVID-19 to the annual death totals from other causes is one way of doing so. (We don't shut down the economy to stop tobacco, which causes far more deaths.) It is also quite revealing to look at the death rate by age group (extremely low for those under 60) and even more so when you look at those under 60 with no underlying health issues (quite close to 0%). This is when you realize that with the knowledge we now have, there would have been a better approach: isolate and protect the vulnerable, and let everyone else go about their normal lives. We would have had less deaths, and almost no damage to the economy and the concomitant impacts on people's health as well as their finances for years to come.
Chief Human Resources Officer at Bob Jones University
4 年Brian, So glad to see you weighing in on this issue as we are all influenced and impacted by what we bombarded with in a very inflammatory media with a goal of “saving lives†and failing to consider at what cost for the whole. I am half way through “The Battle of Bretton Woods†and the American press along with Harry White created a firestorm of messaging that so many across the world including delegates had no understanding of the implications of the IMF and World Bank would be. Thanks for speaking as a dialogue as demagogues abound on this issue.
Coronavirus and the associated deaths are a highly emotional topic. Brian, I appreciate your view of using logic and statistics as a basis for considering our approach to the virus. Fear is not a legitimate strategy for this situation and our economy is not indestructible.