Contrary Bearish Sentiment Near Bottoming Levels

Yesterday’s Investors Intelligence Advisors Sentiment Report showed more bears than bulls for the first time since the March/April 2020 pandemic lows. This level of pessimism has historically occurred near market bottoms. Bulls came in at 29.9% down from 32.2% last week. Bears moved up to 34.5% from 31.0% last week and the correction group declined to 35.6% from 36.8% last week. The difference between bulls and bears fell below zero to -4.6% for the first time since April 2020.

Negative sentiment tends worsen before it, and the market, turns. It’s not perfect and can go much lower over an extended period like it did in 2008/2009. The current market climate does not seem to be akin to the Financial Crisis with the economy humming along. Subsequent market and sentiment lows seem more comparable to the present, with inflation concerns, a pending rate tightening period, geopolitical anxieties and rising energy prices.