Continuous Rise in Petroleum Coke Prices

Regarding the continuous rise in petroleum coke prices recently, combining market dynamics and industry analysis, it can be mainly attributed to the combined effects of multiple factors such as supply-demand imbalance, cost support, downstream demand growth, and market expectations. The following is a detailed analysis:

I. Aggravation of Supply-Demand Contradictions

Supply-Side Contraction

China Production Decline: In January 2025, China domestic refinery delayed coking units underwent frequent maintenance, resulting in a daily reduction of about 18,000 tons in petroleum coke production and a year-on-year decrease in total production by 3.7%. For example, the shutdown of the 3.2 million tons/year unit at Zhejiang Petrochemical further exacerbated supply tensions.

Import Reduction: Due to international trade losses and delays in loading in Indonesia and Brazil, petroleum coke imports in 2025 are expected to decrease by 3.19% year-on-year, with low-sulfur sponge coke supplies being particularly tight. Port inventories are rapidly depleted, and low- and medium-sulfur coke inventories have declined significantly.

Demand-Side Continuous Expansion

Driven by the Aluminum Smelting Industry: In 2024, aluminum smelting production reached 43.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. In 2025, the weekly average production increased by 26,400 tons compared to the same period last year. Prebaked anode, as a key raw material for aluminum smelting, has seen a surge in demand for low-sulfur coke, pushing prices above 4,200 yuan/ton.

Capacity Release of Anode Materials: The rapid development of the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries has led to an increase in new capacity of anode materials exceeding 5.96 million tons/year, further boosting demand for low-sulfur coke.

II. Cost and Market Expectation Support

Fluctuations in Crude Oil Prices: International crude oil prices fluctuate due to geopolitics and supply-demand fundamentals, indirectly affecting the production cost of petroleum coke. Although the crude oil trend in 2025 is highly uncertain, the upward shift in oil prices provides support for petroleum coke prices.

Strengthening of Bullish Sentiment in the Market: Downstream enterprises, due to concentrated pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling demand coupled with expectations of tightening supply, have shown high enthusiasm for procurement, driving transaction prices to increase by 6%-14% month-on-month and up to 44% year-on-year.

III. Price Performance and Differentiation Characteristics

Leading Rise in Low-Sulfur Coke: High-quality low-sulfur coke (such as 1# and 2A grades) has seen significant price increases due to the largest supply-demand gap. For example, low-sulfur coke from Fushun Petrochemical rose from 3,000 yuan/ton in December 2024 to 3,500 yuan/ton in January 2025, with some auction prices even exceeding 4,200 yuan/ton.

Limited Increase in Ordinary High-Sulfur Coke: Due to relatively sufficient supply, high-sulfur coke has generally seen price increases lower than those of low-sulfur coke, and is expected to remain low and volatile throughout the year, with the price range for high-sulfur ordinary goods being 800-1,100 yuan/ton.

IV. Future Trend Outlook

Short-Term Continuation of Rise: Post-Chinese New Year, downstream restocking demand remains, and it is expected that low-sulfur coke and medium-sulfur indexed goods will still have an upward space of 50-200 yuan/ton in February, with the price high point potentially approaching 2,000 yuan/ton (overall market average price).

Medium- and Long-Term Continuation of Differentiation:

Low-Sulfur Coke: Supported by demand from the aluminum smelting and anode material industries, prices may remain high, with some grades potentially exceeding 4,000 yuan/ton.

High-Sulfur Coke: Due to shrinking demand in the fuel market combined with reduced imports, prices are under pressure and may decline slightly.

Potential Risks

Fluctuations in international crude oil prices, faster-than-expected refinery resumption schedules, and policy adjustments in downstream industries (such as aluminum smelting capacity restrictions) may disrupt the current supply-demand balance, which requires close attention.