To Be Continued – Russia, Ukraine & Prolonging The War (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #316)
The Ukraine-Russia War shows no signs of ending anytime soon. As a matter of fact, the war now looks more likely to continue for several more years than it does end in 2023. Both sides are nowhere near exhausting their resources. While the Russians have lost an incredible amount of men and material, they keep finding more of both for the battlefield. This has not proven decisive, but it has prolonged the war. The Ukrainians are at a major disadvantage vis a vis the Russians when it comes to manpower and weaponry. Fortunately for them, NATO and the European Union are their top two allies. They have committed to supplying the Ukrainians at least in a hypothetical sense for “as long as it takes” to expel Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.
“As long as it takes” can be interpreted in different ways. It is more a message for the Russians - specifically Vladimir Putin - than it is for Ukrainians. “As long as it takes” sounds open ended, but because Ukraine’s allies have democratic governments that policy could be open to change. Political considerations are always at the forefront in western nations that wage war. Governments are much more fluid than autocratic ones. The will of the people could lead to less support for Ukraine, but not anytime soon. For now, “as long as it takes” is good enough for Ukraine since it means support will be provided throughout the foreseeable future which includes 2023.
Disruptions & Concessions - Non-Aligned Nations
For Russia, keeping the war going would seem to be much easier than it is for Ukraine. That is because Vladimir Putin has as close to total political control of Russia as anyone since Josef Stalin when it was part of the Soviet Union. Putin is the despot-in-chief and his word is final. Anyone who thinks otherwise need only look at his unilateral decision to invade Ukraine. Of course, Putin was advised by a small coterie of trusted cronies, but he was then and still is today the ultimate arbiter of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Putin’s isolation from others both inside and outside Russia is as much an asset as it is a drawback for Russia continuing the war. Dissenting voices have been silenced inside Russia by the threat of imprisonment or worse. The only checks on Putin’s prosecution of the war come from outside Russia.
Several nations - such as India - that are not aligned with Russia nor Ukraine and the west, have expressed their displeasure to Putin for invading a sovereign nation’s territory. And it is not just the violation of internationally recognized borders that upset many non-aligned nations, even worse was the economic upheaval the war caused in everything from food supplies to rising prices to disrupting energy flows. Russia has been forced to offer some of these nations concessions to mitigate the economic disruption. For instance, selling India oil at prices well below market value. Putin can stomach the criticism as long as these countries do not align with Ukraine and the west. In the Kremlin’s world, being for Russia amounts to not being against it. That is the best Putin can expect.
The China Syndrome - Friends of The Friendless
If there is one nation that Putin cannot afford to alienate it is China. While Putin counts other totalitarian countries such as Belarus, Iran, and North Korea among Russia’s staunchest allies, none of those nations is a mighty power. At best, Iran is a midsized power that like Russia is disruptive. The Iranians do not have the economic or military heft to be a major player in the war. They are reduced to supplying weapons, but not nearly as many as Russia needs. As for North Korea, it is the ultimate pariah state with an economy that is more medieval than modern. The North Koreans can supply weapons and ammunition, but little else.
The one great power Putin cannot afford to turn against him is China. It is no secret that the Kremlin is doing everything possible to cultivate China. The country is a transformative economic and military power that can have a transformative effect on the conflict. Especially if it began to supply Russia with weapons. China is ruled by Xi Jinping who is as autocratic as Putin just less crass about it. Reportedly, Xi has expressed displeasure to Putin for invading and causing geopolitical instability. China’s rise has been predicated on stability both at home and abroad. Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale war, the largest in Europe since 1945, has wreaked havoc on world markets.
This makes China very uneasy about their relationship with Russia. The Chinese resented getting caught in the undertow of Putin’s war after being surprised by his decision to invade Ukraine. It is doubtful they were given advance notice. This does not mean China is against Russia. Instead, the Chinese lean towards Russia out of self-interest and solidarity with a fellow authoritarian nation. China is deeply involved in a tense relationship with the United States. Anything that is hinders America’s support of the international rules bases order is good with China. Powerful Messages – Vision of the World
America and China are locked in a geopolitical competition that could result in a military conflict over Taiwan. That issue is close in nature to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China sees Taiwan as an inseparable from it in much the same way Russia saw Ukraine. If Russia’s war in Ukraine fails, than this would serve to boost western confidence in dealing with China over Taiwan. On the other hand, if Russia gains a victory or at least keeps part of the territory it now occupies in Ukraine, that will send a powerful message that might makes right. This would bolster China’s confidence that they could invade Taiwan and gain control of it. Of all the actors outside of Russia and Ukraine in the war, China and the United States have the most to gain or lose depending upon the outcome. Whichever side emerges victorious will see it as strengthening their vision of the world. The Ukraine-Russia War is a fight for the future world order.
Powerful Messages – Vision of the World
America and China are locked in a geopolitical competition that could result in a military conflict over Taiwan. That issue is close in nature to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China sees Taiwan as an inseparable from it in much the same way Russia saw Ukraine. If Russia’s war in Ukraine fails, than this would serve to boost western confidence in dealing with China over Taiwan. On the other hand, if Russia gains a victory or at least keeps part of the territory it now occupies in Ukraine, that will send a powerful message that might makes right. This would bolster China’s confidence that they could invade Taiwan and gain control of it. Of all the actors outside of Russia and Ukraine in the war, China and the United States have the most to gain or lose depending upon the outcome. Whichever side emerges victorious will see it as strengthening their vision of the world. The Ukraine-Russia War is a fight for the future world order.