Consumer Intelligence from NIQ...
This month features insights on: Rivian, Netflix, Disney+, Starbucks, Apple, Coinbase, HP, Etsy and Zalando
Rivian (RIVN): Rivian announced their newest vehicle, R2, on 3/7/2024 with massive initial demand. Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe announced that over 68,000 reservations had been received for the new lower priced model in less than 24 hours following the launch. NIQ data highlights the scale and pace of this initial demand relative to Rivian's two existing consumer facing vehicles. We observed that total R2 reservations exceeded total R1T orders within the first two days alone. Although electric vehicle sales have slowed in recent months this demonstrates demand remains strong for lower priced options - the R2 has a $45,000 starting price.??
Coinbase (COIN): According to NIQ data, volume-related & fee-related metrics had a positive performance in March 2024, with all of them demonstrating a huge positive YoY growth. Monthly Buy Index in $ Volume was 8.20 with a +319.4% YoY change, and Monthly Sell Index in $ Volume was 7.94 with a +195.6% YoY change. Bitcoin & Ethereum have been surging since late February, and they are currently fluctuating at a higher price point. The optimistic cryptocurrency environment has encouraged more people to trade, hence the uptick in trading movements.?
Starbucks (SBUX): NIQ has examined our e-receipt data set that tracks customers ‘reloading’ Starbucks cards in an attempt to find leading indicators for comp store sales. Customers ‘reloading’ their cards has tracked very well with comp store sales for the last six quarters. April Starbucks ‘reload’ activity is in-line with poor FYQ2 performance at -2.5% YoY (vs. -2.6%, -4.5% and -4.1% in January through March, respectively, when Starbucks reported NA comp store sales -3.0%). Dunkin Donuts card ‘reload’ activity is shown for context.?
Disney+ (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX): NIQ has been measuring the Daily Percentage of Disney+ EoP Subscribers that have cancelled their Netflix subscriptions. As of April 6th, 2024, Cumulative NFLX Cancellations by Disney+ Subscribers were up 3.37% YTD, with a daily average increase of 0.03%. At this time last year, Cumulative Cancellations were only up 1.49% YTD with a daily average increase of 0.02%.
Although this looks like a win for Disney+ in stealing subscriber share away from NFLX, Cumulative Cancellations have begun deviating downward from this year’s positive linear trends. This suggests that Disney+ subscribers are preferring to stick with both platforms and even ditch Disney+ in favor of NFLX.
Zalando (ZAL.DE): NIQ March monthly transaction indices are up MoM versus February for Zalando in every country but France. AOVs are also up in each country in which we track AOV except for Spain, although there are no significant increases in discounting. Both of these trends are in accordance with seasonal trends in the report’s history, likely resulting from increased buying during festival season. Additionally, return rates are down for March 2024, which may be a result of decreased order volume in February.?
Apple (AAPL): Apple announced new iPads at its 07 MAY event, which couldn’t come at a more necessary time. Apple’s Tablet share has fallen precipitously since the start of 2023, with 1H24 share set to decline at a high-single-digit rate. Much of this weakness has come from China despite it being the strongest growth region for Tablets in the GfK data, due to Apple ceding substantial market share to Chinese local vendors such as Huawei and Xiaomi, who are competing in the premium Tablet market Apple has historically dominated. This leaves Apple at risk of seeing its worst decline in the Tablet market since 2016.
HP Inc. (HPQ): HP Printer share is set to decline sharply in F2Q24 to a record low, compounding the impact of a broader Printer market that is declining at a mid-single-digit rate to push HPQ Printer revenue to fall over -20% y/y. Weakness stems from both Inkjet and Laser Printers, while Supplies revenue also has been in decline thus far in 2024. With PC revenue likely to remain subdued until Corporate demand accelerates in 2H24, this Printer market weakness should pose a material headwind to HPQ in both this quarter and the next.
Etsy (ETSY): NIQ’s marketplace GMS estimate was directionally in-line with ETSY’s reported figures this past Q1-2024: marketplace GMS has once again fallen QoQ and YoY, hitting a record low for YoY change. The company is citing seasonal QoQ dips and a challenging macroenvironment as the cause, as competitors are changing the e-commerce environment and putting pressure on cheaper pricing. ETSY hopes for better performance in the latter half of the year but does not anticipate great returns next quarter. So far, NielsenIQ’s mid-month report for April does not indicate a change in this downward trend.
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