Is the Conservative Party's long term survival at risk?
Paul Thompson
Public Affairs expert. I also write about Leadership, Productivity, Self-Discipline and Mindset | Personal Growth & Leadership Coach | Occasionally write about UK politics.
This is the question in another thought-provoking episode from the podcast 'Not Another One' (really recommend the podcast). The hosts take a deep dive into the Conservative Party's future and the broader implications for the UK's centre-right.
The chances of the Reform party executing a reverse takeover of the Conservatives are discussed and how Nigel Farage might try to steer the Conservatives towards joining Reform, or squeezing them further. This might be harder for Reform to do depending on the ideological direction of Conservative MPs that remain after the election and whether these lean more to the left or some spectrum on the right. If the party ends up with more MPs on the left following an electoral rout, this could end up creating a schism between MPs and the party′s base. In any case, there′s a long-term challenge for the party on how it aligns party policies with public sentiment on issues like culture wars, immigration and changing voter demographics.
Labour will need to take the threat of populism more seriously
We′re potentially heading for a period of dramatic transformation in UK politics according to Andrew Marr, where populism is going to be a bigger feature. He argues there′s a conflict in the electorate with one part “yearning for normality, order and common sense” and with another part “there’s an angry thirst for radical change”.
Labour has been stressing stability and change, but if it doesn′t deliver this it leaves the door open to nationalism and populists like Nigel Farage and Reform to become even more popular. A big Labour majority may not mean a strong base for the future to create stability and growth. The post-election stability may be fragile and Marr thinks it fits the sandcastle theory of modern politics (essentially where electoral coalitions that appear to be strong are easily swept away).
He thinks Starmer will be a radical prime minister, but will find it difficult to be radical if he stays wedded to the centre. He also argues Starmer needs to go further on articulating a narrative for the country in terms of its identity that people can emotionally connect to and is easy to understand. Marr thinks this election marks a “pivot in our national life,?it offers hope. It also promises great danger ahead.”
Will Labour enjoy a successful first year?
There′s been quite a bit of commentary recently about how difficult things will be for Labour if it wins the election. But, Fraser Nelson argues Labour′s first year in government could end up being a success. Assuming Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves remain cautious and “reassuringly dull.” ?He thinks the seeds for this future success have been sown already - potentially falling NHS waiting lists by Christmas, legal immigration levels will start to reduce, and future tax increases won′t be much different from the Conservatives in terms of % of GDP).
Plus, Chancellor Reeves will be focused on reassuring international markets due to her emphasis on growth?which requires stability to attract investors. So, there are unlikely to be big surprises in Labour′s first Budget.
The true test of Starmer′s character will come when a crisis occurs.
In a longer article, Sam Freedman takes a look a more detailed look at what might lie ahead for the party if it enters office in his great article (spoiler alert: probably not, though with Keir Starmer and Sue Gray at the helm it might be more ready than its predecessors, given they′ve managed public/government functions before. He flags three major questions for Labour to get right: making government machinery work efficiently, finding the money to deliver really well, and what approach it is to going to take on reforming public services that lead to more benefits instead of “diminishing—or even negative—returns.”
·????? Is Labour ready?
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Worth listening to…
Giles Wilkes offers a concise evaluation of the fiscal strategies and challenges faced by the Conservatives and Labour in ?‘Whitehall Sources: from the Prime Minister's Private Office’. He suggests an additional ￡20-30 billion may be necessary to meet the public′s expectations of public services. Labour's primary focus and gamble is to grow the economy, but reforming the economy′s supply side at the pace they want could be very difficult. Is Labour overtly optimistic and relying heavily on voter patience? Perhaps. The big challenge for Labour will be how to construct a coherent political narrative that keeps voters onside.
·????? Economy Pledges…with Giles Wilkes (between 21 and 40 minutes)
Worth reading…
The real opposition for a new Labour government won′t come from the Conservatives or Reform – but from Labour′s backbenchers argues Robert Shrimsley in the FT. If the party win by a large landslide the number of MPs will outweigh ministers. If Starmer and Reeves stick to their election campaign promises, especially on tax and spending, the soft left of the party (and metro mayors) are likely to start pushing for more radical policy.
′Turquoise Tories′ who voted for the party in 2019 could switch their vote to more environmentally friendly parties according to new polling. What are ′Turquoise Tories′? ?(Conservative voters who want action to tackle climate change, even if it entails higher prices for consumers)
Worth watching
Confused about the debate over illegal and legal immigration numbers? Ed Conway provides a great explanation of the numbers and points out that the UK has the highest level of legal migration since 1855.
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