The Conscious Competence Learning Model

The?Conscious Competence Learning Model has four stages. Each learner must pass through each stage to progress from incompetence to competence. This model helps understand the Dunning-Kruger Effect.?

The four stages of competence are: [1]

1. Unconscious incompetence. The individual neither understands nor knows how to perform a task that requires a new skill. Additionally, the individual is unable or does not want to assess his or her deficit compared to skilled individuals.
2. Conscious incompetence. The only difference to the first stage is that the individual starts recognizing a deficit. They understand that the task requires a new skill.
3. Conscious competence. The individual made progress. They can perform the task based on the new skill. However, using the latest skill requires consciousness and concentration.
4. Unconscious competence. The individual developed a routine. They utilize the skill unconsciously with little effort and concentration. The ability to teach the skill to others, however, depends on other personal factors.

In 1999, Dunning and Kruger published a study titled?Unskilled and Unaware of It. In this paper, Dunning and Kruger describe three propositions. The first two were noncontroversial.

1. In many domains, success and satisfaction depend on knowledge, wisdom, and the ability to determine which rules to follow and which decisions to make.
2. Individuals, however, differ extensively in the knowledge and strategies they apply in these domains.

The third proposition describes many encounters in the Internet Era, where knowledge and wisdom are acquired by Googling a topic, reading a blog or Twitter feed, and rarely confirming the provenance of the information, let alone reviewing and editing sources in a journal.

3. When people are incompetent in the strategies they adopt to achieve success and satisfaction, they suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it.

This third condition is encountered in the #NoEstimates community, where claims are made that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty while spending other people's money, estimating the impacts of those decisions on the probability of success. These advocates are an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect in full swing.

• I'm a software developer—not a software engineer who would have taken a probability and statistics class in college.
• I may not have gone to college yet, and I likely didn't pay attention in my High School probability and statistics classes.
• I act like it's my money; I can do it as I please.
• I work where there is no governance of the company's expenditures, one company's work, deadlines, exceeded?budgets, and no mandatory features needed by those paying my salary on a required date for a needed cost.
• I use words like Value without understanding that in the software development or product development business, Value can only be determined after I know how much it costs me to obtain it and when it will be available for use.
• I need to understand that all work in the software development business operates in the presence of uncertainty that creates a risk to my work's cost, schedule, and technical performance. Aleatory uncertainty can only be handled?with margin. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced - hence the name reducible with?buy-down?activities - tests, prototypes, and other easily applied actions. However, research shows that the majority of problems in software development, which are late and over budget, come from aleatory uncertainties. The margin needed to protect from the risk created by these uncertainties requires estimating. As it also does for Epistemic uncertainties.
• I'm interested in learning that papers, books, articles, tools, and databases for nearly every software development topic are readily available on the web, in journals, and at conferences of professional societies to which I don't subscribe or belong. These would show me how to estimate better, and I could use them to increase the probability of success for my work.
• I want to believe in my heart of hearts that?estimates are waste without ever asking myself - waste for who? One of the founders of eXtreme Programming said estimates are a waste. Waste for Me: who isn't funding the project? Waste for Me. Who needs to receive the tangible benefits of the cost of this project? Because I do think it's all about it and conveniently ignore the PAYOR on my paycheck, signed by the CFO or customer, and my fiduciary obligation to spend the money of those paying in an accountable manner and inform them - to some needed level of confidence - how much I think my work is going to cost, when I think I'll be done, I'llwhat I believe I can get done in that time for that money.
• Yep, I'm right. The Dunning-Kruger scale fits the profile of an incompetent individual who will dramatically overestimate my ability and performance. I need to recognize someone else's competition and my own. Will be unable to use information about the choices and performances of others. Therefore, I still need to improve my self-assessment.
• Only after developing competence will I start to gain insight into my deficits.?

[1] Clarkson, M.: Developing It Staff: A Practical Approach. Springer, 2001.