The connection between AI, energy, and climate change

The California wildfires that started a week ago came as meteorologists declared 2024 as Earth’s hottest year on record. Similar wildfires are burning hotter and moving faster as temperatures rise around the world. But while the primary cause of climate change—the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels—remains constant, there is a new demand on energy resources worldwide: artificial intelligence and its vast computational needs.

“The data center power wall has been a long time coming,” Jared Cohen, the president of global affairs at Goldman Sachs, writes in a groundbreaking essay that suggests the next AI debate is about geopolitics. “It’s not just a question of how those energy needs can be met, but where.” Cohen concludes that the result of AI’s infiltration into everyday life could be a shift in the basic assumptions for the energy grid unlike any in modern U.S. history, and that because the United States cannot achieve AI autarky, it must begin what he calls “data center diplomacy” to find like-minded countries to help power this tech revolution.

Cohen is clear that despite the immense resources required to power AI, the technology offers—in the right hands—a future of greater prosperity and freedom. Through AI-driven opportunities in areas such as grid planning and materials discovery, it could even contribute to the green energy transition.

Rachel Adams, the CEO of the Global Center on AI Governance, takes a different approach in “AI Is Bad News for the Global South.” “At present, with the kind of computing capacity available in Africa or South America, it would take hundreds of years to catch up with the advances that have been made with generative AI in the West and developed East,” she writes. In the meantime, public spending in poorer nations could be diverted from critical services such as education and health care.

Yes, an unrestrained techno-arms race carries major risks, FP’s Michael Hirsh asserts in “Can Technology Save a World Hurtling Toward Disorder?” And the world needs multilateral negotiation not only on AI but also on climate, nuclear proliferation, and other global challenges—just as institutions are breaking down. Yet Hirsh’s latest deep dive comes to a surprising conclusion on the potential impact of AI.

Read the FP columnist’s account of how one team in a war game powered by OpenAI’s GPT-4 proved “more prudent, even wise, in its advice” on how to handle a crisis than its human counterparts and why some experts that Hirsh spoke to believe that AI could be brought in as a cautionary player in handling intracountry negotiations.

There is no doubt that climate change, nuclear proliferation, and biological technology pose risks to humanity, physicist and former U.S. Energy Secretary Albert Moniz tells Hirsh. But, Moniz says, all three issues also “present opportunities for advancing human welfare. And it’s our job to manage the risks and promote the benefits.” Read more of FP’s informed perspectives on AI, including its risks, benefits, and the energy question.—Amelia Lester, deputy editor

New & Noteworthy

• Herd mentality. As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, prepares for his confirmation hearing on Jan. 14, Princeton historian Julian Zelizer notes that only a handful of would-be appointments have been voted down in the Senate—and explores one notable exception.
• Kremlin tactics. An analysis from Bart Schuurman, a professor of terrorism and political violence at Leiden University, exposes how far Russia is willing to go to weaken European adversaries and isolate Ukraine from vital support. He suggests that the Kremlin has adopted a “dual operational approach” to endanger European lives.
• Meta matters. Misinformation missteps by Mark Zuckerberg’s social media company have been even broader and more harmful outside the West, FP’s Rishi Iyengar writes. He reports on what Meta’s policy changes might mean for its 3 billion-plus users around the world.

FP Live

Will Trump Actually Deport Millions?

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump says he won the 2024 U.S. presidential election because of his stance on immigration. The president-elect has called undocumented workers “savage gangs” who should be subject to “the largest deportation operation in American history.” Can Trump really do that? What will it cost the U.S. economy? What checks and balances might stand in his way? Columnist Edward Alden joined FP Live to explain what we know of Trump’s plans so far and how likely he is to enact them. Alden is a co-author of the newly released book When the World Closed Its Doors: The COVID-19 Tragedy and the Future of Borders.?Watch the conversation on demand. For more on this topic, read Alden’s recent analysis, “The Great Deportation of 2025.”

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025

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Every January in Foreign Policy, the International Crisis Group lists 10 conflicts to watch in the year ahead. But beyond Israel’s conflicts with Iran and Hamas and the wars in Syria and Ukraine, what else should we be keeping an eye on? The International Crisis Group is an independent organization that speaks to all sides in conflicts and seeks diplomatic avenues to solve them. Comfort Ero, the group’s president and CEO, joined an FP Live conversation. Watch on demand, or join FP to read the edited transcript.

Exercise Your Mind

The U.S. State Department announced on Jan. 7 that it has determined that genocide is being committed in which location?

A. Myanmar

B. Gaza

C. Azerbaijan

D. Sudan

You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email.??

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Answer: D. The designation comes after almost two years of civil war in Sudan and the displacement of more than 11.5 million people. But the United Nations still has options to combat the violence, Roméo Dallaire and Shelly Whitman wrote last October.