Connecting the dots to possible futures.

Welcome back, or thanks for tuning in for the first time. Over the next few weeks, I plan to share with y'all a bit about my experience at the International Space University's (ISU) 36th annual Space Studies Program (SSP) hosted by Rice University in Space City. Since I've always wanted to write something, I imagine I'll sprinkle in some stories, observations, and lessons learned after ten years in the space industry.

Before we get started, the United States Postal Service (USPS) has a great primer on the history of airmail. The primer provided the historical content I reference in the article below. I recommend reading the full piece, as I only selectively pulled information to help connect the dots for an analogy between airmail services and lunar transportation services. Our industry's roots are in aviation, and the bravery of these airmail pioneers helped shape our industry.

As we take off on this analogy, USPS describes the state of airplanes in the early 20th century, writing, "In 1918, airplanes were still a fairly new invention... Pilots followed landmarks on the ground; in fog, they flew blind. Unpredictable weather, unreliable equipment, and inexperience led to frequent crashes; 34 airmail pilots died from 1918 through 1927." Additionally, government proposals to use airplanes for airmail delivery were rejected, and newspaper editorials mocked the idea of receiving mail via airplane. Undeterred, USPS envisioned a future for their mail delivery services that few others could imagine. However, those who could see a future for airmail services also saw hurdles. First, train delivery of mail was cheaper, more reliable, and just as fast. Second, airmail services required investment in additional infrastructure like airfields and radio stations. Finally, airplanes themselves were costly to produce, operate, and maintain.

As a quick diversion, in 1922 and 1923, USPS was awarded the Collier Trophy for its investments in airway infrastructure, communications infrastructure, navigation aids, and multi-engine aircraft that helped demonstrate and enable transcontinental airmail. The Collier Trophy is awarded annually “for the greatest achievement in aeronautics or astronautics in America." In 2016, Blue Origin also received this award for demonstrating vertical takeoff and vertical landing rocket capabilities. I feel fortunate to have been a part of the Blue Origin team during New Shepard's first two test flights in 2015 that led to this award.

Returning to our flight plan, in 1925, Congress authorized USPS to contract with commercial aviation companies. By the end of 1927, all airmail was carried by commercial companies. One of these companies was Pan American World Airways (Pan Am). Pan Am's existence as a commercial entity was largely anchored by its contract with USPS to carry airmail. With a steady stream of operating cash flow from its airmail services, Pan Am invested in technological advancements that significantly impacted the aviation industry. In the 1930s, Pan Am expanded its fleet and built a comprehensive route network, including transatlantic and transpacific routes. Entering the Jet Age, Pan Am played a pivotal role by acquiring advanced jetliners such as the Boeing 707 and Boeing 747. These modern aircraft allowed the airline to transport more passengers over longer distances with fewer stops compared to its competitors. As a result, Pan Am shifted its focus towards passenger services, with airmail becoming a secondary function. By 1977, airmail was no longer a separate service that USPS offered since most mail was already traveling on commercial jets, alongside passengers. Fast forward another 40 years, the UN estimates the total number of passengers carried on scheduled services rose to 4.5 billion in 2019 and will continue to grow.

For our final approach, let's connect the dots over 100 years between, on one side, a forward-leaning USPS experimenting with airmail, and on the other side, 4.5 billion annual global travelers. By connecting these dots, we may fall prey to the narrative fallacy of cause and effect that author Nassim Taleb describes in his book, The Black Swan. On the other hand, maybe connecting these dots is exactly what Leonard Read asks us to do in his essay on economics, "I, Pencil ." (Thanks, Scott Schneider for sharing this essay with us today and for talking us through its implications in government-controlled or government-dependent space activities!)

Now that we've arrived at our destination, can we apply this model to lunar transportation? NASA's Artemis program aims to re-establish a human presence on the Moon for the first time since 1972's Apollo 17 mission. The program's long-term goal is to build a permanent base on the Moon. Through the Commercial Lunar Payload Services, Human Landing System, and Sustaining Lunar Development contracts, NASA envisions a future for lunar transportation services that others may not see as easily. Hurdles to implementing the Artemis program exist and will continue to crop up. However, by purchasing crew and cargo lunar transportation services from commercial companies, NASA is helping to develop technologies and infrastructure to achieve its program goal. Similar to how Pan Am found success providing USPS with airmail services, we expect some of these commercial companies to be successful with NASA as an anchor customer. Over time, we expect lunar transportation and lunar surface activities to focus more on other commercial customers. Then, the government will simply hitch a ride to the Moon, just like airmail hitches a ride on a jet today.