Conflict in Sudan

Thought for Thursday

“And now that you don’t have to be perfect, you can be good.” Closing Lines to East of Eden by John Steinbeck

Conflict in Sudan

As the conflict and humanitarian crisis in Sudan continues to unfold, a study conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine indicates that the death toll in the nation’s capital is likely far higher than previously reported.

The report suggests that figures cited by the UN and a host of National governments underreports preventable deaths caused by starvation as a result of the conflict. The study also found that “over 90% of both all-cause and violent deaths in Khartoum State went unrecorded”. Elsewhere, the report – which used capture-recapture analysis – highlighted that “deaths due to violence were proportionally highest in the Kordofan (80%) and Darfur (69%) regions, indicating targeted violence in these historically conflict-affected area”.

In September, The Economist reported that as many as 150,000 people could have been killed while 10m people have been forced to leave their homes.

The ongoing conflict in Sudan is also pushing more and more people into starvation with farmland and crops being burned across the country. In May the Dutch think-tank, the Clingendael Institute, warned that there could be between 6m-10m excess deaths by 2027 as a result of the crisis.

With the humanitarian crisis growing ever worse, the UK government pledged to double its aid for Sudan and neighbouring countries, in recognition of the fact that it was “facing the worst humanitarian crisis of the decade”.

According to the government, aims to provide aid to over 600,000 people in Sudan and 700,000 refugees who have escaped to neighbouring countries such as Chad and South Sudan.

The increase in UK government support comes alongside a wider increase in humanitarian assistance pledged by members of the international community.

The international community is also working on a UN Security Council resolution to keep the Adre border crossing open indefinitely.

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How the Most Recent Civil War Erupted

On the 15th April 2023, violence erupted between two armed factions of the Sudanese government, with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) locked in a violent power struggle ever since.

Last April, the RSF attacked state infrastructure under the control of SAF and put pressure on the de facto leader of Sudan, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to resign. Fighting then ensued in the capital Khartoum as well as other urban metropolises like Omdurman with both the SAF and RSF taking control of different areas of the respective cities.

With the RSF successfully capturing government building across Khartoum, the RSF and al-Burhan set up a temporary base in Port Sudan to the North East of the country. The ensuing conflict has seen smaller factions join ether the SAF or RSF.

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UK – Norway

As discussed on the Rest is Politics, incredibly, no sitting UK Prime Minister has had an official visit to Norway since Margret Thatcher. This comes despite the fact that Norway represents the UK’s 12th largest trading partner and is a major player in the UK’s energy security. For example, according to the ONS, Norway is “typically the UK's largest gas supplier” and in 2021, accounted for 77% of all gas imports into the country (roughly ? of Norway’s total gas exports).

With Norway being the UK’s 24th largest export market (despite representing a major market and one of our closest neighbours), its perhaps appropriate that No.10 have arranged a trip to Oslo and we’ll be following the upcoming trip closely to monitor any developments.?