Confirmation Bias: Why Smart People Make Dumb Decisions

Have you ever wondered why people vote for incompetent leaders? Or why a team with brilliant minds can come up with the worst ideas?

Let me tell you a story.

In 1849, everyone in California was convinced there was gold in the hills. Word spread like wildfire, people packed up their lives, and “gold fever” swept the nation. But here’s the thing: most of the miners never struck gold. They followed the crowd, chasing what they wanted to believe instead of questioning what was real.

It’s a classic example of confirmation bias—the tendency to see what you want to see and ignore everything else. And while we might laugh at the gold rush, we’re still falling into the same trap today.

The Echo Chamber Effect

In 2020, researchers found that people were more likely to believe fake news stories that aligned with their political beliefs—no matter how ridiculous they were. Why? Because we live in echo chambers where everyone agrees with us, algorithms amplify our biases, and critical thinking takes a backseat.

Imagine this:

• You’re scrolling on social media. The algorithm shows you posts it thinks you’ll like.
• You join a group that shares your interests or beliefs.
• Over time, your feed turns into a mirror—reflecting back only what you already think.

It’s like being stuck in a room where everyone nods and says, “You’re right.” It feels good—but it’s dangerous.

Leaders fall into this trap too. You hire people who think like you. You trust data that confirms your strategy. You ignore dissent because it feels like conflict. And before you know it, your decisions are as predictable as a Facebook timeline.

Why It Matters

Confirmation bias doesn’t just make you wrong—it makes you slow, stuck, and unable to grow.

Take Kodak, for example. In the 1970s, they invented the first digital camera. But instead of embracing it, they ignored it. Why? They believed film would always dominate because that’s what they wanted to see. Fast forward to today, and Kodak’s a case study in missed opportunities.

Now think about the workplace:

• A manager only listens to their top-performing team members, ignoring fresh perspectives.
• A leader dismisses feedback because it conflicts with their vision.
• Teams reject innovative ideas because they “don’t fit the company culture.”

What’s the result? Missed opportunities. Wasted potential. And the same old mistakes, over and over.

How to Break Free

So, how do you avoid falling into the echo chamber? Here’s the cheat code:

1. Start With “What If?” Great leaders don’t ask, “Am I right?” They ask, “What if I’m wrong?”
2. Seek Out Opposing Views Before making a big decision, talk to people who see the world differently.
3. Break the Algorithm Social media wants you to stay in your bubble. Break out of it:
4. Reward Dissent In 1962, President John F. Kennedy made a disastrous decision to invade Cuba in the Bay of Pigs fiasco. Why? His advisors were too afraid to speak up. After that failure, JFK changed his approach, encouraging open debate in meetings. It’s no coincidence that two years later, he navigated the Cuban Missile Crisis successfully.

A Story to Remember

There’s a plant called the resurrection fern. It looks dead most of the time—brown, shriveled, lifeless. But when it rains, it blooms.

Breaking free from confirmation bias is like that. It’s uncomfortable. It forces you to rethink everything you know. But it’s also the key to growth.

As a leader, your job isn’t to be right—it’s to see clearly. To question. To challenge. To lead your team out of the echo chamber and into the storm where real growth happens.

Your Turn

The next time you’re faced with a tough decision, ask yourself:

• “Am I seeing this clearly—or just seeing what I want to see?”
• “Have I asked for a dissenting opinion?”
• “What would I think if I didn’t know what I already know?”

Let’s break the cycle of confirmation bias together.

What’s one way you’ve seen this play out in your team or organization? Share your story below—or tell me how you’ve escaped the echo chamber.