Confirmation bias - What are you missing?

People tend to see what they are looking for and miss entirely, what they're not.

Have you ever seen that video of the basketball game where the instruction is to count the passes? If not here's a version of it video

It's a classic.

We see only what we're looking for.

Of course, if you're selling Learning, then it's helpful if you can prove that people who just took your course can guess or recall at least 7/10 of the things they've just been shown or told.

It's intention is to prove that the course you've just bought was value for money...

It doesn't of course. It merely proves that people can retain and recall most of what they've just been shown for as long as it takes to take a test. It doesn't evidence that they understand how to apply that knowledge in the real world in which they operate and probably just as importantly, it doesn't evidence how confident they are in applying it accurately and consistently.

The whole dymanic changes when you remove the confirmation bias, when you change the objective from proving something to actively testing the efficacy of it.

When you ask not what people can recall but how they are likely to apply what they've learned, how well they can apply it and how confident they are about that, the results are a good deal more illuminating.

The measurement of confidence here is key.

When we measure for confident application, we find broadly 30% of any cohort or any workforce are over-confident in their capability in at least one or more knowledge areas. Of course we need to move to remediate those specific issues.

However, the really interesting group are those people who are highly capable (competent) but are not confident in their own ability.

These people represent your latent talent. They are the people who very often have skills and capabilities their peers know and rely on, but more senior colleagues (and indeed the typical assessments) don't identify or know about at all.

The culture of the organisation, the hierarchical nature and perhaps the level of diversity of the workforce may all play a part in ensuring people don't step-forward or speak up.

Why does this matter?

The positive out come is that by identifying the latent/hidden talent you will be able to engage those people, develop and retain them.

The more pressing concerns will be one or both of the following:

1. They will be shouted down or over-ruled by the more confident (but less competent) of their peers or colleagues.
2. You will lose them as they look for other roles where their skills and capabilities are more valued and where they see greater opportunity.

So, next time you're considering any kind of assessment ask yourself what the measure is really designed to uncover or evidence and what vital informaiton you might be missing all together.

Owen Ashby Director Strategy, Marketing & Strategic Alliances

Cognisco. [email protected]