Is there a concerted effort underway to break the West's middle class?

Is there a concerted effort underway to break the West's middle class?

Before the pandemic, the retail sector in the UK accounted for approximately 13% of all employment. Similar numbers could be found in most of Western Europe, i.e. between 10 and 15% of the labour force. One would think that protecting a bastion of employment that large would be a priority for those elected to govern us. But a mounting body of evidence suggests that the opposite may be the case.


First there were the favourable terms given to international e-commerce. When business rates are vastly higher than the 0,4% tax rate paid by Amazon, that already sets the stage for bending the gravitational space of commerce. Add to that the different health and safety standards for imported products versus home-made ones. And China’s status in the Universal Postal Union treat of 1874 (!), which saw it classified as a developing nation and thus a recipient of postal subsidies from the West. Yes, that’s right: our postal services were directly subsidising Chinese imports by carrying some of their postal charges, making it even easier to buy stuff abroad than the all-too-dominant search engine algorithms already planned for. It’s not an exaggeration to say that cheap Chinese shipping fueled a bit of a boom for e-commerce that further tilted the scales away from home grown offerings.


Then came Covid. Requiring the closure of small non-essential shops whilst allowing for home deliveries from far away. Now, what commercial entities were best rigged for home deliveries? The behemoths, of course. Amazon profits soared 220% during Covid. Isn’t that ‘lucky’? Not so much for the small shops that had to pay business rates and did not see their deliveries to your front door subsidized. Unlike the smaller players, the behemoths are not exactly famous for paying their fair share of taxes, are they? Tax havens and billionaire pockets are often the end stations for your hard-earned cash. Mostly at the expense of a myriad of local communities that would have been better off if those funds were recycled locally.


Whence all these own goals? How could those who shape trade policy not see this coming?


And now the energy crisis. As if all of the above was not enough to break the proverbial camel’s back. Let’s say that impending energy costs don’t just double, but quadruple – what then? How many small traders, hobbled by two years of Covid tearing away at any savings they may have had, will have enough financial reserves to survive? And when they don’t, what will happen to the people that they employ? Have large-scale re-training programmes and alternative employment been set into motion by those that govern us? If so, I have yet to hear of it. And even if they do transpire, who will pay for them? The taxpayer? Wouldn’t it have been more cost-effective to keep money flows back home?


So it's a logical rhetorical question to ask: is there an ongoing concerted effort to break the West's middle class? Too ‘conspiratorial’, you say? Then let’s flip it around:

Why isn't there more of an effort to save the West's middle class?

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Under what scenarios would the Western middle class be 'expendable'?

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1. If consuming less in order to make the world greener was your main focus, then the elimination of retail and the production of non-essential goods may be seen as a boon.?

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Of course, cutting out the behemoths, making production local (and thus more expensive as a result; thus producing less), with a much bigger role given to the circular economy, could be an alternative route to less consumption. Not to mention a large-scale shift away from planned obsolescence. But that would not benefit the behemoths, would it?

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This stance also assumes the correctness of the presumption of environmental collapse being more imminent than social collapse. I would not place my bets on that, personally.

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2. If you know that the middle class is ‘doomed’, but the upper echelons are well catered for; so there’s ‘no point’ in fighting for it; the ‘rest’ is simply to be left alone to fight for subsistence. Treating the re-feudalisation of the West as a fait-accompli, in other words.

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Historically, scrambling one’s way out of subsistence has been considerably harder than maintaining a well-established middle class. But if you think it’s ‘inevitable’ that the middle class will fall, it makes expedient, if not normative sense to play along, and only guard one’s own best self-interest; assuming the social gangrene won’t ever reach one’s own station.

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3. If there is a political consensus that most of us should "own nothing and be happy".

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There is just one problem: those of us who are to be impoverished haven't been asked about it! That's right, we haven't been asked if we're ok with owning nothing.?My guess is that most of us wouldn’t be (which may explain why we haven’t been asked for our consent). Man is a fearful animal, and while that continues to be the case, owning stuff to insulate one from powerlessness seems to have been a winning strategy. Ditto the creation of a commercial system that allowed most of us a decent shot at actual agency in life. Inner development to achieve the absence of fear may work for the most advanced among us, but is it a workable strategy for millions of people who are to be disenfranchised? I would ‘hazard a guess’ and say no.?

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I have previously referenced the book ?Why the West Rules (For Now)?. It trawls through a great many theories about what it was that gave the West its ascendancy. The book’s overall conclusion was this: The reason the West, and not the more culturally advanced China, rose to its hegemonic status was the emergence of a big, wide and strong middle class. Perhaps not a surprising conclusion, when you think about it. The more people who can afford to think beyond subsistence, the more creativity has the ability to be unleashed. The more people who have the ability to climb Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, the more invested they are in improving their circumstances. The sum of such collective climbing is more advanced societies.?

I would argue that our decaying city centres and depleted high streets are like the canaries in the coalmine, gradually expiring from a lack of oxygen. And with one disaster compounding another, it is perhaps the wrong question to ask if the middle class is under conscious assault. Surely nobody could be that evil?!? Consciously condemning whole societies to decline?!? So flipping the question is perhaps more apt: Why are we not seeing greater efforts at fighting for the well-being of the middle class?

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Jonathan Kolber

Co-founder at stealth company that might change how people view the future. If you wish to connect, kindly say why.

4 个月

David Brin believes that there is such an effort underway.

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Trond Johannessen

Venture Developer, Board Member, Pre-Seed Investor

2 年

I would propose the edits 1. Strike the West - this is a war on Europe. 2. You are making the severe error of trusting the Americans. You keep wishing Bezos being a Space Alien, but he is just American, like Dalio and the rest. They want Europeans divided, but buying American and above all dragged into all their military exploits through NATO. It is easy to answer your question: we are all busy climbing ladders, keeping families together, fighting disease and war, and watching Netflix and social media. History needs to become that to be understood. We keep being told what is happening by people looking through myopic lenses. People have become afraid to speak up, as the world has become visibly complex. A generation ago it was also complex, but we did not have it thrown in our faces, so we stupidly spoke our minds, and we got away with it. The net has made it evident that IQ measurements indeed reflect a half of the population that you can speak to all day long about what is happening and they will not get it. The problem is that the top half of the population will bicker until the cows come home about the detail. And so they think they get it, too, but beg to differ and so not improving the situation. And so it is not at all about the Middle Class as such, but an issue of what we decided to abandon - our values and by extension, the way we build and operate society. We are becoming more like a Communist society where spiritual values are maintained by communities that you cannot break, as they pass it on and being strenghtened in their faith and doubling up on spiritual development as their system hold all the roots of decline in it as the seven deadly sins rule. War, corruption and restricted personal freedom makes for a counterculture of survival, on display in Ukraine. In Western Europe we would likely not last that long in the face of bombardments, lack of electricity, water, food and public services. We are like this post-communist society only in the sense that the values preservation is left to citizens and their initiatives. We are unlike these societies as we come from a position of having what we need and sliding into the abyss, without the aspiration and capacity to struggle as we can see in Ukraine. My analysis is left incomplete and simplified here, but we need to foster our capacity to will an identity that is truly European - a layer that represents what you likely would attribute to the Middle Class - and which I would rather call by its functional names - society-building, cultural development, ubiquitous cognitive participation (educational system), and yes, the conservation of values. And this is where it all becomes politics, semantics of power, and the division bell is sounding. We could find political cohesion around the word protection, but see division if we used the equivalent term conservation. The least dynamic and most conservative socio-economic layers in society are the lower ones, mostly because the political system representing their interests would be out of business if they achieved their goals. Class struggles are perpetuated by political parties. The key to perpetuating division in such societies is the buying of the elected and self-selected few. Foreign influence peddlers have an easy time deploying schemes that perpetuate division. We are adapting fast as humans to change, but societies nevertheless adapt to change in ways that are toxic and destructive to values, cohesion and the fabric that invisibly held us together through past pandemics, wars, economic declines and dark ages in spiritual and cognitive dimensions. In our dynamism we developed from simple societies of a few mansions to complex societies where innovation is disruptive. We see this as heroic - kicking one class of workers out of work as we substitute our innovations for their experience and cognitive capacities. This is not really new - we have many sayings from old demonstrating that the unsuccess of one is feeding the other, but we never saw these disruptive transitions at scale. We are not a very dynamic society despite the above, as the fantastic growth in technologies and sciences in general has elevated all of us into specialization, but with no other result than the famous jack of all trades, master of none. We are curious, but increasingly ignorant about the work of the person at the next desk or counter. In this world, we seek community where we can find it and hence we run to cyberspace where we are physically safe and where we also can be more cognitively expansive. The Metaverse is a great safe place for our egos and we will increasingly also satisfy many of our needs there, including physical, cognitive and spiritual needs. We do not need Elon Musk nor Jeff Bezos to take us to Mars - we are totally fine with escaping to the neighborhoods of the cyberphysical continuum that allow us to live our aspirations increasingly denied us in the more limiting physical world. Shopping and working online is great, as it supports that being now rising in cyberspace, the one which looks like, acts and is received by others in ways we find harder to achieve out in the nasty neighborhoods where the postal service - eh, Amazon - still finds us. The worrisome trend concern you are raising is entirely to the point - our vantage points and semantics tend to differ. In my view, the solution must be sought in our basic composition of beings and how we organize our lives as individuals, families and groups, societies, nations, federations and planets. I like to suggest that we are in a series of major transitions that society and its members do not understand too well and so leaving us to struggle. I do not exempt myself from the cognitive or adaption parts, but here are some provocations: We are in a technology transition of society that in popular labels could be called smart - intelligent - cognitive, where the smart wave started in the early years of this century and the intelligent wave is taking over around this time. The cognitive society will be taking over from the end of this decade from a technology availability and deployment point of view and the following decade will be its defining moment. Yet, we still see "smart cities" being the label of conventions and initiatives not even starting to have an impact on economies and lives. I could agree that it is all about semantics, but every time I look in depth, I realize how we fall behind by failing to build capacity and models of society as dynamic entities serving the individuals for sure as physical, cognitive and spiritual beings - "complete persons". But it goes further, to the competitive capabilities of federations and the corresponding Power to Coerce as the EU High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles aspires to in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This is where we fail as a Federation, or risk failing if we keep this to forward-looking matters. We must accelerate our social development in a world that is disrupted not only by technology, but also visibly in conflict over economics, distribution of wealth, perceived physical security. We learned during the pandemic that supply chains matters and the perception of national security is not about borders, but about access to the full supply chain ingredients. Sanctions imposed since 2014 on Russia by the US mostly has often been challenged by its competing Federation, Europe. Why? Because sanctions limit access to basic materials, to means of transport, to human resources, to financial assets, and in the end, breaking out of that cage is characterized best by a territorial acquisition and a new Federation, perhaps similar to the triad that dissolved the dysfunctional Soviet Union. We did not see that process taking place until it erupted as war in our European back yard. Well, Germany and Austria leaders protested to the US in 2017. Industrial leaders protested ahead of that. Disruption at work in the cyberphysical continuum is not like that of our grandparents' world, but the result of war is as devastating, maybe in a shorter time. We cannot build "smart cities" in 2022, we must be building "intelligent cities" aiming for these to transition to "cognitive cities" already in the next decade. We need the expedience of government that we now see addressing war, and until recently exceptionally addressed a pandemic. The difference, though, is that we cannot repeat this experience with governments being unprepared for war, pandemics or the major transitions in the information and energy spaces. We still have people thinking the transition is to digital when the race is towards the quantum society. People freak out and are played to declare gas and nuclear renewable, rather than staying the course. We struggle with an unevenly defined reality paradigm and we see the vested interests being disrupted in panic and with brazen arrogance reaching for the honey in broad daylight. Wake up, Europe.

Dr. Chris Donegan

Sceptical Empiricist.

2 年

Nominal Productivity and GDP gains aside the size of the global middle class appears to be a zero sum game. The far east middle class has grown at the expense of their western counterparts. This was disguised for a long time through debt. This isn’t a conspiracy it’s a simple equilibrium.

Wayne Gordon

Materials Scientist; Metallurgist

2 年

Bit couldn't it be that the pressures on the middle class are the symptom of the west's collapse, and not the cause? Was the rise of the middle class in the west a result of productivity and wealth, rather than the cause of it? Are we not witnessing the collapse of western society?

Charles Parkin

Director at Ryan Leisure Ltd T/A Active Fitness 24/7

2 年

’Life and Death in the Warehouse’ on BBC iPlayer - worth viewing to understand the direction of travel https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2022/mar/07/life-and-death-in-the-warehouse-review-the-terrible-true-cost-of-online-shopping

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