THE CON IS ON

John Boydell - Friday, 3 November 2023

As always, I’m not on anybody’s “side” politically, just trying to champion common sense.

The numbers don’t add up but you have to show they work. There’s people to answer to and the explanation better be good or there’ll be trouble. You simply don’t want to deliver bad news to your shareholders and funders for they have put their faith in you and the loss of reputation for you and your fellow board members would be catastrophic. That fate has just befallen Sam Bankman-Fried, head of crypto exchange FTX. The numbers didn’t add up as they didn’t for various others before, including: Charles Ponzi; Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos; Ivan Boesky; Bernie Madoff; Wirecard; and Enron. The expression goes that if you put good data in, you’ll get good data out – unless you fiddle the data, move the goalposts or variations on those expressions. All these miscreants shared a common theme: they presented one picture, while the reality was something else. Executives go to prison and so they should for they have tricked people out of money that would not have been handed over if the true position had been known: in short, a con.

Death and taxes are inevitable; the make-up governments is not. There is, of course, a desire to perpetuate political power but in a democracy [provided the result is respected] that decision rests with voters. Manifestos and other on-record pronouncements from political parties set out their stall, sometimes backed up by evidence, which may be authoritative or not, as the case may be. On this information, the people make up their minds and cast their votes. They know, whoever is in power, that tax will be payable for otherwise the fabric of society will fail. Most citizens also accept that if they buy something, there will be a price to pay, but in almost all cases, they would like to know what the price is before making a buying decision. Various economic analysts are putting forward respective figures: of 4p – 9p [on the rate of income tax]; and ￡50 billion - ￡90 billion a year as a price to voters over the next few years. This, however, is not in the price list notified by manifesto and on-record prouncements. Indeed, the published price in the list is not changing i.e. the rate of income tax. The headline is ‘We’re not raising the rate of income tax’ [so give us your vote]. This is the data going in. The data coming out and, indeed, the reality is that income tax is being raised by significant amounts through fiscal lag. It even looks like people relying on state pension in their retirement years will be dragged into paying tax, as will many low-paid workers, while many will end up in higher-rate tax bands. Rishi Sunak’s personal pledge to the public was that things would be done differently under his watch, no more lies, spin and chaotic behaviour but, instead “integrity”.

What would integrity look like? Something like this: ‘We have low productivity as a country, which doesn’t look like changing soon, while demands on public spending for additional services and pensions are going to keep rising. We don’t and won’t have enough cash to pay for this, so taxes need to rise.’ Instead, what do we have? ‘We’re not raising the income tax rate’, when the tax take will rise, in reality. Integrity? Bah – pull the other one! And you, HM Opposition, you can wipe the smirk off your face, unless you’re going to be honest with the public about what’s needed, which you probably won’t because you, too, don’t want to deliver bad news.

Levelling up, remember that one? ‘You matter to us but that other lot you’ve voted for over so many years has let you down’. That didn’t turn out so well in reality but it has instilled in the consciousness of politicians of all persuasions that much of the country had been left behind, while the south-east prospered. People elsewhere still had votes and they accepted Boris Johnson’s promise [the data he fed in] that they mattered to him. What came out the other end exposed the con and many red-wall voters will return to Labour, who will have been shaken up by the experience and, likely, less complacent, going forward.

The country faces so many huge tasks that need addressing: productivity; a voracious NHS; aging population; worker shortages; failing (financially) councils; crumbling schools; social care in crisis; ailing justice system and more. The demand for resources, for which read cash, will be relentless. If we don’t earn it, it will have to come from taxes that citizens will have to pay. Don’t tell them one thing, while picking their pockets, instead. You’ll need them onside for, otherwise, they’ll penalise you at the ballot box and you’ll be out of a job. Mind you, serious con-artists in the real world end up in prison; in the world of politics, you’ll have to make do with an index-linked pension and, perhaps, a seat in the House of Lords, while you look for something else to do.