Are Computers Already Better Than Humans At Recruitment?

?? Non-Football Fans Go With Me....??

I've recently got into football thanks to my son's love for the game. Having spent most of my life feeling like an outsider in conversations on the subject I am now delighted to not only understand the offside rule, but to also know the difference between league and cup games (yup - I truly didn't used to ????).

Since moving to the south coast, we have become proud Seagulls (Brighton & Hove Albion) supporters and I've been fascinated to learn about their owner Tony Bloom's selection algorithms. The club has been on a pretty amazing journey - in 1993 they were relegated to the Fourth Division/League Two and in 1996 they had to be saved from financial collapse by a supporter's trust. Now though they have not only worked their way up to the Premier League but they beat Man City last weekend (an amazing spectator experience).

Whilst the club had already just about made it back into the Championship when Tony Bloom took over in 2009, it is notoriously difficult to not only make that leap from Championship to Premier league, but also for new entrants to the Premier League to compete with the established teams because of their ridiculously deep pockets and their ability to buy the best players. Many make it into the Premier League just to be relegated back down the following year or the year after. Bloom not only helped Brighton make the final leap into the Premier League, but has also helped them beat the odds within the league and become confidently established in the top half of the table. And, whilst his financial investment certainly hasn't been insignificant (it's estimated to be about ￡400m), it is is a fraction of the?￡2.5 billion that Sheikh Mansour has reportedly invested, over a similar time period, since he acquired Man City (and we beat them - did I mention that?!).

?So, What Is Tony's Secret?

Tony made his fortune in sports betting and poker, applying statistical modelling and probability analysis. He has brought those same skills to BHAFC's recruitment process. Whilst I don't know for sure that he's been using artificial intelligence, I'd be very surprised if he hasn't, and he is certainly using large data models. Whatever the specifics of his approach (and there will be rival teams even more keen to understand it than me!), it is not only working, but it is working so well that he has recently got rid of most of his human recruiters/scouts: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/11/12/brighton-axe-majority-scouts-recruitment-data-tony-bloom/

????Huge Success????

Ok, I'm definitely being a bit presumptuous in using trophy emojis as it's not like we're yet at the top of the table or at risk of bringing home silverware (but give it time....!!????)

It would, however, be churlish to say that his recruitment approach hasn't already been hugely successful. He has not only brought in to the team amazing international talent that others were overlooking, contributing significantly to results like the one vs Man City (did I mention that we beat them?!), but he has also reportedly made over?￡360 million?in profit from player sales in the last two seasons - bringing on players like Moises Caicedo who he signed for about?￡4.5 million?and sold for?￡115 million.

So, he's clearly doing something right. Or, more accurately, his computers are. ?

?If Tony Can Do It, Shouldn't We All Do It?

To be honest, that's what I've been asking myself. I've spent a long time talking to clients about both the risk and opportunity that modern technology represents for hiring. I've been saying we're not quite there yet. If someone is clearly deploying technology to make hiring decisions though, with limited human oversight, and it's resulting in amazing and seemingly unbiased (his signings have come from a very wide range of backgrounds) decisions, is the debate not settled? Have I been wrong?

Whilst I think it's a brilliant example of what should eventually be possible, I realised fairly quickly that football recruitment has one major characteristic which makes technology much more likely to be successful and safe in hiring today than it would be for other types of recruitment: there are clear, objective, universally used, and publicly available predictive data points which do not require any form of human categorisation to be usable e.g. # goals scored/ # % accuracy of shots on goal/ % tackles won etc etc. This is not the case in the very vast majority of other situations.

??Conclusion??

So, I guess the answer to my original question is yes.

It seems that Tony's computers are already better at recruitment than humans.

But there is a major caveat.

Computers are only better than humans at hiring if the dataset they rely on is not flawed or tainted with human bias.

And I guess that's what many of us have been saying for quite some time now - the technological capability is there but, in most situations, the data isn't. For most of us, Tony's just illustrating the potential.

But....if you are in an industry, like football, where you have easy access to clear, objective, universally used, and publicly available data points which do not require any form of human categorisation to be usable you 100% should be using computers (with a bit of human oversight) to help you target talent and make selection decisions.

For the majority of us though, where the data simply isn't there yet, there is definitely a very important role for technology to play, but it's not yet better than humans - Tony's success can just serve as an indicator of what will be possible when better data comes.

??????????SEAGULLS. SEAGULLS. SEAGULLS!??????????

?What has this got to do with Perspective?

Fair question - I accept that it's perhaps a little tangental, but if you'll indulge me, I do think there's a genuine connection: I get super excited about all situations in which technology is amplifying human capability, giving a voice/platform to those who would otherwise not be noticed, and helping to optimise the performance of teams and organisations. Tony's algorithm is doing that for BHAFC and Perspective does that for all our clients.

If you're interested in finding out how, do get in touch.