A Comprehensive Strategy to secure Ukraine’s Future | The Alphen Group (TAG)
HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Transforming global challenges of today into solutions for tomorrow
As Russia’s war of aggression enters its 2nd year, the Western definition of success must remain the re-establishment of Ukraine as a secure and sovereign European democracy with all the rights and responsibilities that entails. This Ukraine Strategy by Rob De Wijk and The Alphen Group (TAG) addresses the scope and extent of Western support required to reinforce that goal across the diplomatic, informational, military and economic domains.
Specific aims of the Ukraine-Strategy are threefold:
2023 will be the decisive year of the war. The prospect of a total Russian victory that would see the complete dismemberment of an independent Ukrainian state, although by no means impossible, seems remote. However, Ukraine will only prevail with sustained and extensive Western support.
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Continued Ukrainian advances and recovery of still-occupied territory cannot be assumed and Russia may have sufficient capability to repel Ukrainian offensives and force a stalemate. Russia enjoys far more strategic depth and industrial capacity than Ukraine which is precisely the reason why Western support remains indispensable.
Beyond the future of Ukraine, what is also at stake in the war is the West’s capacity to shape its strategic environment and shape the European security order on its own terms in a way that upholds the principles of the rules-based international order established following World War Two. All and any collective action will involve risk.
A new European security system will be needed in order to restore respect for the principles of international law that Russia has violated and, over time, to lay the basis for a new relationship with Russia, whatever the outcome of the war. And, in the short term, it will also be indispensable in order to maintain a sufficient level of support from Western public opinion.?
consultant, publicist, ex VP-Eurodefense NL, voorzitter Eurodefense Werkgroep 27
2 年I fully agree. But concluding that Europe or the EU will need a new security system is avoiding the very sensitieve political issue of " national autonomy" and transferring power to the EU. Most people in the EU support your conclusies but the big question is how to structure a credible EU defence organisation and how to agree on a common foreign and defense policy with 27 member states with veto power in the EU council. Even creating a short cut with a coalition of the willing is a very complicaties affair that will requiem a lot of political courage .
Sworn translator, non-discrimination advisor, publicist, MA in East European Studies (writes in a personal capacity)
2 年De NAVO stort Oekra?ne in een oorlog met Rusland, gooit vervolgens olie op het vuur en dan hebben we het nu over het veiligstellen van de toekomst van Oekra?ne? Kan het nog cynischer? Het internationaal recht is door de NAVO(-landen) met de Verenigde Staten voorop decennia geleden om zeep geholpen, dus waarom spreekt het HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies over agressie als het over Rusland gaat?