A comprehensive list of 2024 AI predictions ??

The global AI market was already worth more than US$150 billion by the end of 2023. According to one of the reports, the global AI market will reach US$1350 billion by 2030, and this upward journey surely begins from 2024.

The idea of this icon ?? might have set the tone of my predictions for this year. Trust me, we are going to witness unimaginable AI implementations in 2024. The breakthroughs of Generative AI in 2023 has setup a dramatic momentum for 2024, and our expectations have risen to a next level. Everyone is waiting for the "Aliens" to appear this year, I mean not literally, but I guess you understand the sentiments.

Before I start, there are pretty obvious things which are going to happen in 2024, like OpenAI 's GPT-5 will be launched, Generative AI will become a technology risking most jobs by any tech-disruption, and on contrary setting up stage for people with plethora of opportunity in new job-roles — like prompting efficiently. And the start of the year will face a dramatic AI startup-stress because of the business models that are too much affected by OpenAI's release of add-ons.

"It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity" — Albert Einstein

I am very optimistic about this year, but at the same time I am cognizant of the fact that this year is also going to daunt us a lot. And its because we haven't yet lifted ourselves to the maturity which this technology demands, and I am specifically concerned with the pace of Generative AI's access to common people in its raw form. So to start with, the table of contents below should clear how I am picturing this for the year 2024.

Table of Contents

1. Seven obvious predictions of AI in 2024 (Hot Picks ??)
2. Six nerve-wreaking predictions of AI in 2024
3. Five boring predictions of AI for 2024
4. Four bite-size predictions of AI for 2024
5. Three definite predictions of AI in 2024
6. Two things that 2024 will leave us with
7. One Closing Note

Obvious predictions of AI in 2024 (Hot Picks ??)

? The ↙? fall and ↗? rise of NVIDIA

The era of AI technology has shifted from CPUs to GPUs, and Nvidia being a GPUs super manufacturing power is going to face a lot of acceleration in existing demands and also the need to further diversify their portfolio.

Let me explain this, AI users do not pay for GPUs directly, rather they access GPUs via cloud providers like Amazon Web Services (AWS) , Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform, which in turn buy chips in bulk from Nvidia. But Amazon, Microsoft and Google (Nvidia’s largest customers) are going to become their competitors. Why? All of these have recognized the power of AI, and the key to sustain is to develop their own homegrown AI chips, which will compete directly with Nvidia’s GPUs, and that would be a "Fall for Nvidia".

This will force Nvidia to diversify, i.e. Nvidia would start offering its own cloud services and operating its own data centers in order to reduce its traditional reliance on the cloud companies for distribution. Nvidia has already begun exploring this path last year by rolling a new cloud service called DGX Cloud, so ideally, Nvidia will meaningfully ramp up this strategy this year, bringing a new domain "Rise for Nvidia".

德勤 has already predicted that Generative AI chip sales could reach over $50 billion, and software revenue might see a $10 billion boost in 2024.

? Closed AI Models ?? will perform better than Open Source

We hear a lot in communities and forums that open models are catching up and might soon become better than the closed models. But, this seems very unlikely. OpenAI's top models, like GPT-4, are not shared, and they will definitely release even more advanced models soon. Similarly, Google DeepMind also keeps its best models to themselves. Although companies like Meta and Mistral AI share their models with the public, the closed AI models will still perform better than open models with a quite good margin.

And the simple logic I see is that to operate these cutting-edge models, it also costs a lot of money. Companies might not want to spend billions on developing an AI model just to give it away for free. Even though Open Source AI is very important, the most advanced AI systems will remain proprietary.

? The unbreakable love between OpenAI and Microsoft will break ??

This is for sure! The dramatic role of reinstating OpenAI 's CEO Sam Altman by Microsoft , might show a sign of love-forever, but both the companies have different goals and visions for AI's future. Although Microsoft has hugely invested in OpenAI, so that it can power its products like Bing and GitHub Copilot, but as OpenAI expands its enterprise business, it will start competing with Microsoft for customers. And I think Microsoft already knows this, because if you see how its positioning itself by diversifying its AI model suppliers, like OpenAI rival Cohere and investment in internal AI research, the AI safety, risk, and regulations between the two organizations will lead to parting their ways from each other.

? U.S. Court ?? will sue Generative AI model for copyright infringement

See the Generative AI models like GPT-4, Bard, DALL-E 3, Midjourney , etc. are trained on massive amounts of digital content including books, photos, and videos. This raises a legal questions about the use of this copyrighted material.

The whole point of legal issue is centered around the doctrine of "fair use", which is very complex and has no outlines about generative AI in it. So, the application of this doctrine to AI will not be straightforward and will lead courts to experience new theoretical challenges.

Different courts will reach conflicting conclusions, with some favoring it as a fair use by AI models, and others would flag them as copyright violations. But at least one U.S. court will charge generative AI model for violation for sure which will escalate litigations, settlements, and legal debates, turning generative AI industry upside-down in news. Just to remind the recent one where The Times Sues OpenAI and Microsoft Over A.I. Use of Copyrighted Work .

? The Race between ??? defenders and attackers

2024 is going to be bombarded by attackers by using generative AI and LLMs to personalize and slowly scale their campaigns. Things like Phishing will see a surge, and the problem of misinformation and social engineering attacks will be multi-folded. Deepfakes and self-evolving malware will show upward trajectory, with targeted social engineering campaigns becoming the center of all chaos. I know its a lot to digest at first go, but 2024 is going to be the year we will also remember for this.

"We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them." — Albert Einstein

One more vulnerability I could foresee is the evolving model manipulation or prompt injection attacks. If you have followed news, you might have heard the talks on AI red teaming and bug bounty programs becoming popular against these problems.

Most importantly, from jobs standpoint, Security Specialists demand will sky-rocket. This year is a golden chance for people who want to enter into Cyber Security field, as their will be a dramatic pay rise for this skill set.

? The ?? volatility in jobs

The repeated worry of job displacement is indeed an important discussion when we look it from a long term stand point, however, the technology is not matured yet. So ideally this is my take ??

"AI is not going to replace humans, but humans with AI are going to replace humans without AI" — Karim Lakhani (Harvard Business School professor)

The AI job loss news will move from theory to reality, and this will include jobs related to admin and clerical roles, non-performing coders, customer service, graphic design, HR, Financial advisors, etc. to point-out a few. Existing CIOs would need to upgrade their knowledge to confront ‘shadow AI’ in their organizations to keep their job safe.

A new role will be in a limelight, i.e. "Prompt engineering expert", and there will be an increase in the demand of AI project managers, trainers, and ethicists.

2024 will also witness Fortune 500 companies pushing their AI strategies more aggressively. And this means, new AI related job openings. A new C-suite role will be introduced, something in-line with "Chief AI Officer", similar to the trend where companies appointed "Chief Cloud Officers" when cloud computing was booming. We have already seen the President Joe Biden 's executive order of appointing Chief AI Officers in federal agencies last year.

? Generative AI will play a dramatic role in 2024 US ?? Presidential election

Everyone is using Generative AI. AI which was mainly used by businesses before — primarily to benefit consumers through their own value chain, is now available to consumers directly for their own use cases. It means the AI value chain is no more an enterprise deal, anyone can use it for their own intended benefit. And in this 2024 US election, political parties, Left wing, Right wing, and everyone else will use Generative AI to manipulate the sovereignty by using misinformation, social media bots, deep fakes, etc.

Access to tools to automate false social outrages, and near-to-real fake stories will keep all of us occupied. Forbes has already affirmed that 2024 US Presidential candidates are already using AI In their campaigns and contents. Brennan Center for Justice has raised concerned about the AIs use impacting election security, voter suppression, and misinformation, questioning the fairness of the election. And not to forget, Former U.S. President Donald J. Trump For President 2024, Inc. reportedly supported a group that used AI to generate memes with racist and sexist tropes.

Nerve-wreaking predictions of AI in 2024

? Real advancement in Medical Science

2024 will witness better and more efficient models that can detect diseases more precisely, discover drugs using generative AI, creating effective and personalized medical treatment plans, and to also bring surgical precision. Plus, the area of "Cancer" will see some innovative breakthrough this year due to AI.

Also, one another life changing advancement that we will witness is using AI with tools like instruments, imaging, and robotics, along with real-time data of patients, on which surgeons can train themselves and can further perform surgeries safer, even remotely. This approach will start narrowing the gap of 150 million unattended surgeries of low and middle income countries.

? Insurance policy and AI risk hallucination

AI Hallucinations have annoyed a lot of people lately. Last year a New York attorney used a conversational chatbot for legal research. The AI chatbot created six bogus legal precedents, claiming they were from major legal databases. And if you get deep inside the use cases of Generative AI, this is so risky. Reddit was full with people posting the hallucinated reply by OpenAI 's ChatGPT and Google 's Bard. Remember, the $120bn wipe off for Google after Bard (AI chatbot) give wrong answer? For your quick reference ??

So why the image is so important? Because the likes of ChatGPT and Bard can give you wrong answers with sheer confidence and you can't pick it up most of the times. So, ‘hallucinations’ = made up outputs (not the real ones).

In 2024, we can see the awareness among insurers who will account the claims that will involve business losses from AI hallucinations. And this will bring tough fights in claim settlements because the insurance companies do not have access to the skills required to counterfeit such things.

? The year of Multi-model AI

For us the humans, the way of communication is vocal. And the this year, AI is going to change a lot because of these kinds of new multimodal models. These models can understand different kinds of data like text, pictures, and sounds all at once. This will make AI smarter and more useful. We will see startups using these new models to make better decisions and to create more personalized experiences for people. Also with databases powered with AI, we will get better in handling these new demands.

Also, AI products will start using more than just text naturally. As they will have the access to things like voice, video, and even code at their disposal. We would see talking to a computer and feeling just like talking to a person. Or, talking in your voice even when you haven't physically gone to a meetings!

? AI-Augmentation and Intelligent Application Development

Tools like Microsoft AI Builder, Airtable AI, and UiPath AI Center will speed up the creation of applications. These tools, part of the low-code/no-code movement will help developers to reduce the time spent on coding and allowing them to focus more on strategic tasks like designing impactful business applications. devx is already playing a crucial role in this evolution. Gartner have also predicted in 2024, 65% of app development will rely on these low-code methods.

? One big enterprise will face a global backslash 彡 because of Generative AI

I will start by saying that the world should be prepared for mistakes. If you have observed the largest technology consulting companies from last year, you would have seen them being desperate to speedup their Generative AI adoption, which has established an unsaid race between them. You name any of them, Deloitte , EY , Accenture , Cognizant , Infosys , PwC , KPMG , Boston Consulting Group (BCG) , McKinsey & Company , Bain & Company , Gartner , Tata Consultancy Services , etc., and they have been publishing reports and articles on Generative AI use cases and its adoptions just to be in this race.

“For every benefit, there is a corresponding abuse.” — Samuel Johnson

The problem with their likes is that they are totally dependent on a partner, for example, Microsoft , OpenAI , Amazon , Databricks , etc. which are still evolving. But the pressure to bring the value to their customers, the big consulting organizations are so overwhelmed that they have to come up with Generative AI practical use cases for business. This might result in endangering the privacy, policies, regulations, or the very purpose of the Generative AI use to be in question. Think about the amount of risk an unsanctioned use of AI tools by employees can bring for corporates. AI will open blind spots door for new corporate risks for sure.

But on flip-side, businesses will start to use more personalized AI technologies more efficiently. Instead of having just one or two AI tools, many companies will have lots of these tools, each designed for different parts of their work and using their own proprietary data.

? Omnichannel shopping experiences

AI will reach to customers in a new way. AI Products incorporated in omnichannel shopping experience will become a talking points in many forums. Balancing product discovery with personalized customer service will be the major focus of the retail sector. AI-powered shopping advisors will be seen on LinkedIn , Facebook , Twitter , TikTok , and Instagram , who will help businesses to help in enhance customer interaction across all platforms using real-time data analysis. ++ Focus on customer loyalty by merging digital efficiency with a human touch using Generative AI can also be seen.

Another adaption we will see is on the in-store experiences which will utilize computer vision and physical security information software to collect and correlate events from different security systems. This can help in minimizing the organized retail crimes which have been increasing over last decade.

Boring predictions of AI for 2024

1. Vector databases will become the mainstream news, with relational databases, i.e. SQL being ditched by enterprise limelight.
2. National and global AI regulation will be introduced by nations and international bodies.
3. Manufacturing industry will lead the global charter of AI adoption
4. AI-driven change will demand rapid L&D upskilling, widening adaptability gaps and boosting AI training solutions.
5. Smaller need-specific, task-specific, business-specific models will become mainstream this year. Making 60% of workers will use their own AI to perform their job and tasks.

Bite-size predictions of AI for 2024

1. AI will greatly help in fighting climate change. It will be used for better weather predictions and handling natural disasters. AI will also improve how we use energy by making smart grids and renewable energy sources more efficient. In farming, AI will help grow more food with less waste.
2. 20-25% increase in the overall VC's investment portfolio would be seen this year on AI as compared to 2023. From chips to new models to new use cases, funds will be raised anticipating positive growth of AI industry. And this will be further boomed by the entry of Governments from different nations to setup-their own CoE's (Center for AI Excellence), just like enterprises.
3. The terms "large language model" and "LLM" will become outdated. In 2023, AI has started including text, images, audio, and more, which makes these terms less suitable. Now, AI models are handling various tasks like protein analysis and combining visuals with language, so, there will be new terms to describe them more accurately in 2024.
4. Many exciting AI companies and models of 2023 may not exist in 2024 as the market maturity will create a tough fight for them. Stability AI is one on my list for this.

Definite predictions of AI in 2024

1. 2024 will bring intense focus on AI in the venture capital and tech sectors is expected to shift back towards crypto, following a trend of hype and herd mentality. Crypto, known for its cyclical nature, is currently out of favor, but indicators suggest another bull run might be on the horizon, as seen in past cycles in 2021, 2017, and 2013. Recently, there's been a rise in Bitcoin's value again, hinting at a potential upswing. Many venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, and technologists who are currently heavily invested in AI were deeply involved in crypto during the last bull market. If crypto prices surge again this year, it's likely that some of these influencers will redirect their attention back to crypto, following the emerging trend as they did with AI this year.
2. The EU's AI Act will enter into force in the first half of 2024. And more conversations around AI regulation will happen across globe. Also, regulators will closely examine AI startup investments by cloud giants like Microsoft , Amazon , Google , etc., focusing on potential 'round-tripping' and its impact on accounting practices. This scrutiny could lead to fewer and smaller deals, which will affect large size AI funding and the role of cloud providers as a key capital source.
3. The likes of Paramount Pictures and 华特迪士尼公司 will announce their major Generative AI breakthroughs by using it like a consumer to improve their production pipelines, adding better lip-syncing actors in multiple languages, to advancing special effects.

Things that 2024 will leave us with

? Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

With whole OpenAI 's Q* drama, and "the world will end because of AGI" articles, I believe, 2024 will give us a technological pathway towards actually predicting the real Artificial General Intelligence — good for humans.

? Trust and security

After all the ups-and-downs in the world of AI, a greater portion of the world will accept that AI is trustworthy and secured. The % of AI adoption among general users will explode and business will have running AI systems with intended outputs.

Closing Note on 2024 AI Predictions

So, Generative AI will become a general-purpose technology, just like how we use internet or a laptop today.

I think for companies, they will make better strategic AI decisions this year and will thrive to gain competitive age by redefining workplace roles, and establishing trust in AI. Enterprises will definitely focus more on responsible AI implementations, and will implement ready-to-use scenarios for accelerating business transformation. Also, they will pilot rules on how companies can operate in this growing AI age.

For us, our overall behavior of smartphones usage will change for good, as AI enhanced smart tools and utilities will help us become more impactful towards our hobbies, surroundings, and profession.

These predictions that I have outlined in this newsletter, shows the increasing market value of AI, and the transformative developments in various sectors which would happen. But most importantly, this year will be of teeming with innovation and challenges.

So here it is, my comprehensive list of 2024 AI predictions.

Disclaimer: My views and interpretations are my own. They are based on past events and news but are only predictions. These should be seen as perspectives, not endorsements. No company is involved, and these views are not related to my employers.

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