Complexity and Turbulence

Every September, the United Nations convenes presidents and heads of state to celebrate its General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City. It is probably the largest gathering of state leaders engaging in dialogues about the most pressing challenges of the global agenda. But this week, the 77th general Assembly is held in a context of complexity and turbulence.

While the Pandemic is coming to an end and world leaders will be able to meet face to face for the first time since 2019, scares from Covid 19 will remain for years to come, particularly in the most vulnerable countries and communities. The Rusia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the impact of the Pandemic by fostering a generalized increase in energy and food prices.

We are currently facing an economic slowdown, with the potential of breaking into a recession, compounded by widespread inflation and high-interest rates that, while smoothing the increase in prices, also hinder debt markets and divert investment. In the face of these circumstances, the natural response from the government is to intervene in the markets through subsidies and price controls. But we must not forget that the decisions we take today will define the future of the next five generations.

The increase in energy prices, coupled with subsidies to cushion inflationary impacts, fosters more consumption of fossil fuels, which are the primary driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inducing global warming. According to the Global Carbon Project, after a decrease of 5.7% due to the pandemic’s economic slowdown, estimations of CO2 emissions show an increase of 1.6% in the first half of 2022, surpassing even the levels previous to the pandemic.

And, while GHG emissions continue increasing, climate change does not hesitate to remind us of the intensity of its impacts. This year we have witnessed unprecedented heat waves and droughts in different regions of the world. In Europe, high-temperature records were surpassed in Portugal, the United Kingdom, and other countries bringing thousands of deaths and displacements due to wildfires. Monterrey, Hermosillo, and other cities in Mexico and in the southwest of the United States got a sample of the socioeconomic implications of intense droughts. The most devastating flood in the history of Pakistan claimed 1,136 human lives, destroyed one million houses, and wrecked 3,500 kilometers of highways.

Before the pandemic, UNGA set the venue for transcending announcements to combat climate change. In 2019 for example, the world applauded China, the main emitter of GHG, for its NetZero emission target before 2060. The good news continued with the entering Biden Administration and the return of the United States to the Paris Agreement followed by a 52% CO2 reduction target by 2030. Between 2019 and January 2022 over 130 countries had established NetZero emission targets by midcentury.

The context of complexity and turbulence currently faced by the world must not be an excuse to delay the transition toward more efficient and cleaner economic systems. It is indeed the ideal moment for governments and corporations to set the foundations that will define their development and competitiveness for the next five decades. With increasing geopolitical tensions due to the Rusia-Ukraine and now China-Taiwan, energy security adds up to the multiple benefits of the transitions toward a fossil fuel-free energy system. This week in New York City, world leaders have the responsibility of providing trust in a context of great uncertainty.

Article originally published in Reforma Newspaper: https://www.reforma.com/complejidad-y-turbulencia-2022-09-19/op234229?pc=102

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