A COMPLETE GUIDE WITH EXAMPLE FOR MARKOV COHORT SIMULATION IN EXCEL - TIME-VARYING TRANSITION PROBABILITIES AND PAYOFFS
Dr. Neel Patel
Market Access | Health Economics | RWE Specialist | Product Commercialization | Clinical Research | Strategist in APAC & EU Healthcare
The following information is collected from the trials. Kindly create a Markov health economic model for the same.
- The transition probability to remain in health state is 0.96
- The transition probability to move from healthy state to diseased state is 0.03
- The transition probability to move from healthy state to dead state is 0.01
- The transition probability to remain in diseased state is 0.95
- The transition probability to move from diseased state to dead state is o.05
- The cost of each cycle in health state is 50 and QALY’s is 0.9
- The cost of each cycle in diseased state is 1000 and QALY’s is 0.6
- The cohort size is 1000 patients.
According to the given data, the following data table can be generated:
Step 1:
According to the above data, we have a constant transition matrix that applies in every cycle and also the payoffs in each state are constant for each cycle but what we want to do is have these depend on which cycle in the model. Next thing is updating of transition probability as follows:
Step 2:
Update time varying quantities as follows:
Step 3:
Add time varying quantities from column J- column N including qx, Cost_H, cost_D, QALY_H, and QALY_D.
Step 4:
Select cell J3 and add formula in qx as =VLOOKUP($H3,$A$13:$F$16,2,TRUE) and add it in all cycles number. Similary add formulas in Cost_H, cost_D, QALY_H, and QALY_D (change the column numbers respectively)
Step 5:
Add state membership columns for healthy, diseased, and dead state in columns P, Q, and R of excel. As the initial cohort size is 1000 patients, add 1000 in healthy state and 0 in diseased and dead state.
Step 6:
To update the transition matrix, select P4 cell and add formula =P3*(1-$C$5-J3). Drag and apply this to all rows till cycle number 40. For diseased state, select cell Q4 and add formula =P3*$C$5+Q3*(1-0.04-J3). Drag and apply this to all rows till cycle number 40. For dead state, select cell R4 and add formula =P3*J3+Q3*(0.04+J3)+R3 and apply to all rows till cycle number 40.
Step 7:
For calculating cost parameters, multiply time varying health states by associated costs. Add costs and QALYS in column T, U, V, X, Y, and Z respectively.
- Formula for cost in healthy state: =P3*K3
- Formula for cost in diseased state: =Q3*L3
- Formula for QALY’s in healthy state: =P3*M3
- Formula for QALY’s in diseased state: =Q3*N3
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3 年Very useful