Competition is coming to IOS and Android. Where is it coming from? What does it mean for the CIO?

A quick flashback and Fire OS, anyone?

The days of Nokia (Symbian) and Blackberry somehow feels like they happened a generation ago, propelled as we are by Moore's Law and the relentless innovation that the mobile devices have seen in the past decade. However, this week, and this month, and this year seems to be an excellent time to quickly reflect on the past, and then, even as quickly look forward to the recent goings on in this space, and reflect on the implications for industry.  It took just about five years for Nokia and Blackberry to fade from dominance to irrelevance, with Android and Apple IOS taking up that space with their duopoly (well Microsoft made a vain effort with windows Mobile, but that is another story for another day).  Younger readers probably despair at the current duopoly, and a lack of choice when it comes to mobile OS, but it would help to remember, and "we have been there before".

Are there early signs that we are actually seeing competition coming up for the Bog Two? And as ever, from the most unexpected sources? I think we do, and this article will try to analyze those green shoots, speculate on future directions and possible implications for corporates and app developers.

The earliest effort at creating an Android alternative came from the perennial innovator, Amazon, in the form of Fire Phone. Amazon leveraged a forked version of Android called FireOS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_OS) to create a fairly compelling product that garnered praise and criticism in equal measure. To independent observers, its lack of commercial success probably had as much to do with Google's iron grip on the Android ecosystem and how little the general public understands it   (e.g. for example which parts of Android is "really open source" and which parts are completely under Google's control). Anyways, Fire OS failed to catch on, Amazon moved on to other segments and Google and Apple's grip on the market continued to strengthen. 

Nature abhors a vacuum, and the free market abhors monopoly (even a duopoly). It is only a matter of time before incumbents face disruption from the most unexpected sources..

Unforeseen consequences? What's that?

That brings me to back to the subject of unexpected developments and their unforeseen consequences.  Just when the duopoly seemed unassailable,  came the completely unanticipated trade war between USA and China in 2018-19, and a large number of global organizations like Apple and Huawei got caught up as collateral damage.  The "unforeseen consequences" have started piling up.

Firstly, as a nationalistic backlash against US companies started building up in China, anecdotal evidence suggests that many consumers increasingly realized that other than a great camera,  consumers in the mainland really have very little dependency on the mobile OS platform itself.  Between WeChat, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu and a host of other local apps in the ecosystem, an average consumer can happily exist in any mobile OS that are supported by the local champions. To make matters more interesting, the size of the Chinese gives it enough scale that any mobile OS can be viable even if it supports a part of that market.  This built up a classic gambit of strategic interests.

 Secondly, the Huawei ban comes in the backdrop of these developments.  Huawei has responded with its own version of mobile OS. Look no further than Harmony OS launched by Huawei.  While its currently targeted at televisions, IOT devices etc, the target market of hand-held mobile devices is very much in its radar.  And as long as it can get the top 10% of the mega apps, in China and internationally, to come on board, Harmony OS can potentially be a viable alternative.  I know many users in India who would be perfectly happy with pretty much any OS that runs the medley of Whatsapp/youtube/TikTok/ Digital Wallets. 

The third interesting development, which, in my opinion, did not get enough press coverage, is the emergence of alternative "secure" mobile operating systems, championed by individual governments. Russia's national operator, Rose Telecom has invested in 75% of AuroraOS, based on Jolla's Sailfish OS (https://sailfishos.org) which could potentially give the fledgling operating system a viable mass of early adopters.  And to paraphrase Alice in Wonder, it gets "curioser and curioser…".  Huawei has announced the deployment of Aurora OS its first large scale deployment on Huawei devices.  With a combination of the right software, a hardware provider and a ready market, will we see accelerated adoption and commercial availability in the near future?          

 Sensing a viable opportunity, other "secure communication platforms" are springing up.  Sikur (https://www.sikur.com/sikurphone/)  in Brazil and DarkMatter's KATIM ? (https://www.darkmatter.ae/katim/katim-os/) are seeing early adopters signing up.

Emergence of independent mobile operating systems like Harmony OS and Sailfish OS is probably the most exciting development in mobile computing space in the past two years...

What does it mean for CIOs? 

Notwithstanding the outcome of the trade war, or the progress of the dispute involving Huawei, we are probably well set to see a fragmentation of the mobile OS market and an emergence of alternatives, at least with early adopters, governments and public sector organizations focused on security and policies in specific countries.  I believe it will have three main impacts for corporates.

1. Fragmentation of OS, and with it, of course- higher costs.  Developers of large, global apps and tools should set themselves up to go beyond IOS and mainstream Android versions to supporting multiple platforms, if they want to retain specific geographies and public sector markets. Each platform will probably have its own nuances in development, release, security, privacy and other compliance nuances etc. And at the very least, these translate to higher costs.  If you are a CIO who is deploying on these new platforms,  it should also translate to higher costs- since anything new,  untested and without a large installed base, usually tends to be expensive- if nothing else, since there are so few people with the right skills and expertise to deploy and maintain these environments.
2. Breakdown of "stores" and centralized app distribution model- In spite of the bad press they have been recently getting, monolithic application distribution platforms like the Apple App Store and Google Play Store provided a reasonable degree of assurance on the quality of apps being distributed.  There is rarely a way to spot truly malicious developers or carefully hidden exploits except through deeper, slower, more time-consuming inspection. The app stores may appear to be failing ever so often, but without them, the anarchy would be unimaginable. However, with app developers like Fortnite deciding to distribute its Android App only by "side-loading" (https://www.androidauthority.com/fortnite-for-android-interview-epic-games-893342/), more and more app developers will follow through on their lead.  This will lead to more spoofed download site, and more compromised download packages (https://www.wired.com/story/imposter-fortnite-android-apps-already-spreading-malware/) and this trend will only proliferate with a fragmentation at the operating system level. CIOs will have to contend with compromised versions of their own apps being distributed in the wild, as well compromised users' devices spreading malware within their networks. Unfortunately, there won't be any easy way out of this impasse. 
3. More security and compliance issues-    If experience has taught us anything,  it is that "claims of being secure" are very different from being "actually secure".  Modern mobile operating systems are complex beasts with many parts that need to work in perfect orchestration. Failures can, and will happen. In my hypothesis, these new flavors of OS will solve some immediate problems for its sponsors, but will surely open up new ones.  Organizations who develop for these platforms, and publish apps on their catalogs and marketplaces will need to contend with building those muscles as well.

In conclusion, we are sure to "live in interesting times" over the next five years, and Apple and Google will probably experience stiff competition from quarters that they least expected it with significant implications for organisations around the world.

 References

1. In defense of the Amazon Fire Phone- https://techcrunch.com/2017/10/07/in-defense-of-the-amazon-fire-phone/
2. Gizmodo : The Worst Fire Gadget Amazon Ever Made Is Even Worse Than I Remember  - https://gizmodo.com/the-worst-fire-gadget-amazon-ever-made-is-even-worse-th-1836274935
3. Huawei launches Harmony OS: https://consumer.huawei.com/en/press/news/2019/huawei-launches-harmonyos/
4. New Huawei OS Shock: 'Confirmation' Of Russian Software For Mobile Devices:https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/08/27/new-huawei-os-shock-confirmation-of-russian-software-for-mobile-devices/#3d1379d179c8
5. Tim Sweeney, CEO of Epic Games- https://www.androidauthority.com/fortnite-for-android-interview-epic-games-893342/)
6. Impostor Fortnite Android Apps Are Already Spreading Malware:  https://www.wired.com/story/imposter-fortnite-android-apps-already-spreading-malware/