Competing Against Luck?

In this recent post https://drugstorenews.com/walgreens-villagemd-close-all-illinois-clinics VillageMD is closing all of its Illinois clinics. Cano Health filed bankruptcy: https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payers/spectacular-collapse-risk-bearing-provider-company-cano-health-files-bankruptcy. Was it really spectacular or was it predictable? Did their approach cause them to Compete Against Luck?

Christopher Voss mentioned in his book "Assumptions blind, hypotheses guide" That is such a wise way to think about innovation as well. One can't help but wonder if these companies have a rigorous system that requires the documenting and testing of their big assumptions about their consumers and business model design.

Companies that appear to be standing the test of time and consumer choice have programs that put a relentless focus on delighting their consumers and designing solid business models to deliver that delight.

• Intuit: Customer Obsession. The original system was titled Design for Delight.
• IKEA: Life at Home.
• Amazon: Customer Back/Customer Obsession..

The programs strengthen their ability to win and help them suspend vital assumptions about their consumers and business models.

In Clay Christensen et. al's Competing Against Luck, the authors articulated the Jobs to Be Done Theory, which helps organizations figure out what causes someone to pull a product or service into their lives. I have used it as a diagnostic framework to truly understand what struggle/problem/opportunity should prioritize our work. This, in my experience, is in stark contrast to what I call the Field of Dreams theory, which is "if you build it they will come." Christensen et. al offer "for most companies, innovation is still hit or miss. And worst of all, all this activity gives the illusion of progress, without actually causing it".

Some believe that innovation is a game of just getting more "shots on goal" or a game of mathematical odds. Some even believe it is a game of being super smart. I don't agree with either. With a system that has a language, tools, and methods, just like finance systems, clinical systems, etc. a transformation innovation system can reduce the game of playing the odds and actually cause progress! Innovation is the verb that drives true transformation. Without a system to understand what causes consumers to make choices and without a system to conduct business model portfolio assessment and management, I propose we are Competing Against Luck. We don't have to compete against luck! We can transform our organizations through a rigorous system.