Commodity update

Crude Oil

As indicated in my 15th Aug article, crude was expected to move higher towards 103.50 & then towards 111. It did achieve the 1st target at 103.48 on 30th Aug but gave up the gains eventually, marking the low of 87.25 on 8th Sep. Going forward, I still stay bullish on crude. A re-test of lows near 86.90-86.85 cannot be ruled out yet, but the momentum divergence on the daily chart indicates that the bearish trend is losing its strength. A break-out above 98.50 would further push crude prices towards 108.

Gold

The reason I say that Gold is currently in a no-trade zone is that, if it breaks down below 1760, it will further fall to re-test 1680. Thus we will know the direction of gold only once it moves out of the range.

In my last article, I mentioned that Gold was in a no-trade zone, as the chart did not indicate a direction then. However, Gold eventually broke below 1760 marking its low at 1688.35 on 1st Sep. Going forward, a positive momentum divergence on the daily chart indicates that the yellow metal will eventually break out on the upper side of the falling channel pushing its price towards 1800. A breakout above 1805 would open the upside levels of 1875, 1920, 1975 & finally towards 2075 with a stop loss at 1675.

Copper

The longer view on copper remains the same as last month. The chart indicates that the fall in copper price is possibly not over yet and is expected to continue till 2.60 over the coming months.

In the short run, a break-out below 3.5450 was seen & as indicated earlier, the level of 3.40 was achieved by marking its low at 3.36. Going forward, the current upswing in price could continue till 3.90 before the wave V downwards start.