Committing to change through behavioural models and chaos

2024 is Square Holes' 20th year, and we are planning a BIG party in November.

(Let me know if you'd like to come :-D)

Facebook also just turned 20 in 2024, and they have had an unimaginable positive and negative impact on the world in our similar business lifespans. (Facebook just turned 20, but don’t expect a party | NBC News)

Yet this is not a piece about Square Holes, nor Facebook, but how to keep calm and commit, when the chaos of life keeps saying "take it easy, give up, it is not safe."

Day one of my work year 2024 started with a little bit of chaos, and a good friend reminded me of the certainty of uncertainty, which got me thinking ...

(Warning: It is quite long)

Let's start with you, the reader. Are you a planner or a procrastinator?

Do you have the next year or few mapped out, new year resolutions or otherwise, or do you strap yourself into uncertainty and hope? Are you just too busy to do what's needed? Or, do you work hard towards a goal and then give up when chaos knocks you sideways again and again, and you just stop trying?

Do you dream of moving overseas, starting a new business, a career shift, learning a language, or musical instrument or getting fit, running a marathon or whatever?

You are likely suffering a dose of optimism bias, a cognitive bias that causes humans to believe that the future will be bright, then chaos hits and you do not remain calm, and your commitments get abandoned awaiting calm to return.

Perhaps the key to success is remaining committed even when things go wrong or life gets busy. Otherwise how can we make progress when uncertainty ever reigns?

“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.” –?John Allen Paulos

Just do it!

The thing is that the first step in making a change is overcoming procrastination and fear, our strongest human default, and simply committing, and then moving forward one step at a time, and not giving up. As you become more invested, be this money, effort or time, in a new business, learning something new or whatever, you are more likely to continue to commit - sunk cost fallacy.

If you never get started your chance of success is zero, and as you invest more money, time and/or effort into an endeavor the chance of success increases.

While you may never thrive, surviving is often success. Or, more than never starting.

In a business context, half of Australian businesses survive more than three years, according to Australian Bureau of Statics figures, and only 11% of Australian businesses employ more than four staff (61% employ no staff). Surviving is success.

Milestone years and significant events make us think of the journey, and what might come next. The challenge is to put in steps, commitment and even a plan.

In this year of Square Hole turning 20, the same year Facebook turns 20, coincides with my 30 years as a researcher, and with this thousands of studies and long term client relationships exploring human behaviour and what drives change. Over time, as in any career, patterns emerge and intuition sharpens.

As a fundamental of behaviour change there are five basic steps ...

1. Precontemplation: Not even thinking about change;
2. Contemplation: Start to think “perhaps I should change?”
3. Preparation: Balancing pros vs cons and risk vs reward to trigger change;
4. Action: Likely very slow after much procrastination; and
5. Maintenance: Fighting against comfortable old ways and likely giving up.

(Transtheoretical Model)

The model could be applied across a wide spectrum of behaviours from giving up smoking or losing weight, to how community services and businesses may be able to help people to make changes or swap service providers or products sooner. Understanding how hard it is shift attitudes and behaviours is a core part of the role of the research Square Holes does to support decision makers over time.

Change is super hard, basically as procrastination and lack of willingness to commit are strong forces. It is just too easy to not committed or give up.

Over time surviving, progress is made. As personal examples in 2024, January 2024 my first born daughter turned 20, and after much work and many years is a flourishing university student with big plans, recently leaving home to cement her independence. Daughter 2 turns 15 mid-2024. January 2024 was also my 25th wedding anniversary. Lots of joy and adventure experienced and survived.

To add another, August 28 2024, Jack Black and Jason Priestly turn 55, and the next day I do. In the year Square Holes launched, 2004, Jason Priestly’s claim to fame was (and still is) Beverly Hills 90210 which ended four years prior, after 10 seasons and 293 episodes. Jack Black’s career was 20 years strong, then School of Rock in 2003 catapulted him into icon longevity status.

Surviving to have a fulfilling life is success. My mum turns 75 this year and heads off on yet another overseas trip. My otherwise healthy dad died 14 years ago age 61.

Procrastination can seem ridiculous when we look back over our lives.

Milestones have a way of reminding us of the journey and focusing on what next.

The chaos of life is unpredictable, and commitment is key to making progress.

Steve Jobs one of the two founders of Apple once said ...

"You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something - your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life."

Steve Jobs started Apple Corporate with Wozniak age 21. The above 'dots looking back' quote was made when he was 50, he died at age 56.

Back in 2016 Square Holes conducted a study for the Government for a large 'Ageing Well' initiative to define future planning and priorities for older Australians (aged 60+). A consistent theme from the 'older' people was regret at living in fear and fighting the uncertainty of life, and that putting in the work early makes the future better, be this financially, family and friends, adventures or otherwise.

As Ferris Bueller once said.

"Life moves pretty fast"

Incidentally when Matthew Broderick stared in Ferris Bueller's Day Off he was 23. He is now 61 and continues to have a super career on screen, stage et cetera. Life does move pretty fast if you procrastinate, but you can pack lots into your days.

Keep on just doing it

Human nature is to just give up when there are warning signs or it gets tough. It is quite rational to seek safety and comfort in a stressful situation. A perception of a threat, real or otherwise, can activate our nervous system and trigger an acute stress response that prepares the body to fight or flee. Quite a logical inate response to danger, and excuse for parking the commitment until safety returns.

Yet, the challenge to achieving success is remaining committed come what may, to be resilient and remain calm. Some people are more resilient than others, and GRIT is a non-cognitive trait based on a person's perseverance of effort combined with their passion for a particular long-term motivation to achieve an objective.

Logically assessing the risk, being able to continue through adversity and keep going is a valuable personal trait. Is it a real legal or health risk to yourself or others, or an an exaggerated fear that would be best to calm down and carrying on? Planning ahead to minimise failure and learning from mistakes can build resilience.

GRIT and resilience do not equate to blind faith and hope, or allowing the ostrich effect to take control, the tendency to avoid dangerous or negative information by simply closing oneself off from this information. It is the ability to maintain unwavering faith that you can and will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties, and at the same time, have the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be (Stockdale Paradox).

Human nature can be to manifest danger as far more than it actually is, and the cognitive biases in all of us encourage us to act irrationally. For example declinism is the predisposition to view the past more favourably and the future more negatively. Similarly rosy retrospection means we view the past more favourably than reality, and likely do not learn from our mistakes.

It is hard navigating the irrationality of being human, yet if we understand and respect such cognitive biases we may be able to harness them to make progress.

For example ...

Actor-observer bias. The tendency for an individual to credit their own situation to external causes while ascribing other people's behaviors to internal causes.

Confirmation bias. The tendency to seek information that confirms existing views and ignore even robust data and information that proves otherwise.

Hindsight bias. The tendency to interpret past events as more predictable than they actually were.

And, cognitive bias can also help us to commit.

Overconfidence bias: The tendency to commit when we are confident and feel what we do is important to have an impact.

IKEA effect: The tendency to complete things we’ve invested time and energy in.

Just doing it, in the right direction

Now we understand our challenge of humans to overcome procrastination and commit and the irrationality of our cognitive biases often encouraging us to give up or otherwise think less than rationally, it is important to head in the right direction. What is the plan and how can we make it more habitual to execute?

It can feel at times like you're on a road to nowhere.

Over the past six months we have completed a program at the Australian Centre of Growth. Much of this was about setting a business strategic vision for five years into the future to achieve growth, and the steps, clarity and actions to towards this. What do the next five years look like? It got me thinking about my own path and what the next year to five might look like, other than getting older.

Having a clear understanding of the plan ahead and step towards this will increase the chance of making progress in the right direction. Having a vision and passion increases resilience. While chaos will likely push us off a direct course from time to time, remaining focused on the vision for the year ahead, then two, three, four and five will increase the chance of committing to a path in the right direction.

Where do you want to be in five years?

Where do you want to be in four years?

Where do you want to be in three years?

Where do you want to be in two years?

Where do you want to be in one year?

How are you going to get there, what are the priorities each year?

How can you keep yourself accountable, committed and moving forward?

The next year to five will likely not go anywhere near 100% to plan, yet it will go more to plan, than hoping for the best. Just like a business will unlikely make progress simply from hoping for the best and moving forward with blind faith.

It is about putting in the work in the immediate to short term to see return on investment in the medium to longer term.

1. Accept the certainty of uncertainty and learn how to live with and feel secure in insecurity
2. Write a clear vision for you your life / business in five years?
3. Break down the next year, next year, year three and year four
4. Commit to micro-actions daily, weekly, this year and start making steps towards the vision
5. Create rewards for yourself, and set easy defaults that become positive habits

There are behavioural fameworks to help to maintain your commitment, such as the MINDSPACE framework developed by the London School of Economics, which provides a simple acronym to help us overcome our irrational minds.

M is for Messenger: We are heavily influenced by who communicates information to us

I is for Incentives: Incentives are shaped by predictable mental shortcuts such as avoiding losses

N is or Norms: We are strongly influenced by what others do

D is for Defaults: We ‘go with the flow’ of pre-set options

S is for Salience: Our attention is drawn to what is novel and seems relevant to us

P is priming: Our acts are often influenced by sub-conscious cues

A is Affect: Our emotional associations can powerfully shape our actions

C is for Commitments: We seek to be consistent with our public promises and reciprocate acts

E is for Ego: We act in ways that makes us feel better about ourselves

Now, just do it!

What implications does the above have for your year or years moving forward?

For example ...

1. Respecting that human nature is to be oblivious to change, then procrastinate then relapse
2. Remain positive and make public commitments to family, friends and team will increase sticking to it
3. Setting defaults, lists and daily rituals can start positive habits, especially if they are the norms of other friends, family and others
4. Ego is a super reward for committing, and gamification in Apps from fitness, learning a language to finance drive change (My favourites are Strava and Duolingo, I am currently on a 60+ day streak learning French, and Wellteam)
5. Set up incentives that motivate avoiding loss (money or otherwise) more so than gain (e.g. if you don't achieve your goal you lose money)

Progress is made one step at a time, slowly towards a goal - BIG or small.

Just do it, keep doing it, learn from mistakes and head in the right direction.

Surviving can be a pretty solid measure of success, and overcoming procrastination, remaining committed and heading in the right direction will hopefully help you in thriving more so than simply surviving.

New possibilities

We look forward to implementing and remaining committed to Square Holes' 2023-2028 strategy and my own 'plan' for the year and years ahead. From time to time it is nice to stop and do a stocktake on your journey and what comes next, and the first 19 years of Square Holes have certainly been an adventure, with the most valuable asset being the clients and wider networks and relationships we have built.

In the last quarter of 2022 we launched our new brand identity (including logo, website etc), and since we have been diligently refining our strategic vision, mission, values and robust methodologies. We have established a top-tier reputation and have conducted thousands of market research and cultural insight studies inspiring innovation and driving growth. Our methodology has been developed, implemented and refined since 2004, and we keep evolving.

Mission: New possibilities, inspired by real people

Square Holes nurtures human-curious decision-makers to inspire innovation and drive growth, through tailored on-going market intelligence and cultural insight programs. Our methodology has been developed, implemented and refined since 2004 across our two specialist areas – ‘Growing Businesses’ and ‘Flourishing Cities’ to support decision makers in their core sectors.

Thank you to our clients and supporters, some of which are pictured below. We are so grateful for the medium to long term relationships we have nurtured.

Read our case stories here ...

If you would like to chat about how we may be able to work together, contact me >

Good luck for the year(s) ahead.

Thanks for reading.

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