Commercial Aviation – 2020 to 2030: Seven Predictions

The decade of 2010 to 2020 is almost over. The current decade has seen the rise of the composite aircraft, and the demise of the four engine jumbo jets. Airbus and Boeing are still at it with no real competition to their dominance. Airline safety has seen levels never touched before, with 2017 becoming the first year since commercial aviation began to record zero fatalities for commercial airlines. We have also seen the largest ever civilian aircraft grounding with nearly 750 Boeing 737 MAX currently grounded. Environmental concerns have become more prominent and represent a challenge for the industry. However, there are more planes flying than ever before, and the demand for air travel is still growing.

So, what does the next decade hold for us – I will stick my neck out and make some predictions, and let’s see if I look silly or not come 2030!

Supersonic Travel – Is it Really Happening?

When the Concorde retired in 2003, commercial aviation seemingly stepped away from its future and back to its past. As incredible an aircraft it was, it never quite had the demand to justify its existence. Now there is hope for revival of Supersonic Travel – the Boom Overture. Boom Technology was set-up in 2014 in the USA with the objective of reviving commercial supersonic travel. They have taken this project further than anyone else has and are currently designing a scaled down demonstrator. They state they will have the 55 seat Boom Overture in the air between 2025 to 2027, and it will operate successfully at business class fares as, unlike the Concorde, this aircraft will have economics factored in. Composite components of the demonstrator are being delivered for assembly.

I really hope I am wrong, and I would love to fly supersonic in my lifetime, but I don’t see it happening. I can’t see why airline would buy an aircraft that has novelty value at best. The Concorde has some demand when airline frequencies were low, and once you were in the air, you were no longer contactable. Even then, operating just 14 of them was a challenge. There are plenty of flight options as core routes have a higher number of frequencies. You are no longer disconnected with the world when onboard. I cannot see why enough people would be in a rush to get to their destinations to justify an aircraft like this. I don’t expect to see supersonic commercial aircraft in the next decade, not because it can’t be done, but there does not appear to be a real need for it.

At best, there may be a market for a supersonic business jet, which can also be modified as a small, niche, commercial airliners.

The Return of the Boeing 737 MAX

The Boeing 737 MAX is in trouble and Boeing is looking terrible as a result. There are nearly 750 737 MAX aircraft parked, and production is being halted from January 2020. Every regulator in the world seemingly wants to dissect the aircraft before allowing it back. Had it been any other company (other than Boeing or Airbus), this aircraft would have been finished. But it is a Boeing, and it is the 737, which is still the most popular aircraft ever made. Simply put, it is too big to fail. Boeing has even rolled out the 737 MAX 10 quietly.

The 737 MAX is an old airframe that takes its origins from the Boeing 707 designed in the mid-1950s. it is much lower than the Airbus A320. Airbus made the A320 more efficient by introducing a newer, larger engine – the Airbus A320neo (new Engine Option). In order to compete with that, Boeing had to wedge in a newer, bugger engine on it existing 737 airframe to design the MAX. And that’s what made the aircraft unstable on takeoff with a risk of a possible stall.

This wasn’t unusual or unexpected, and Boeing intended to address it by introducing the MCAS system to auto correct any instability on flight by correcting the stall. The problem simply is that the MCAS system relied on one source of information and could overrule the pilot even if that information was incorrect. And to minimise pilot training costs and simplify entry into service, Boeing didn’t include all these aspects in pilot training. So essentially, it’s a system related issue rather than structural.

The 737 MAX will be flying once again 2020, and after all the testing and scrutiny it has gone through, it will probably be the safest aircraft in the world. But this is the last variant of the 737 we will see. The brand is now tarnished and it is dated (the problem was caused due to the dated airframe not blending well with the new engines). Boeing is overdue announcing its replacement. There is a lot of talk of the Boeing 797 coming out as a replacement for the Boeing 757. A replacement for the 737 should follow within the coming decade, and it is not likely to be called a 737.

COMAC – The Third Player

Ever since the demise of McDonnell Douglas in 1997, it has just really been Boeing and Airbus. Embraer competed on the regional jet front quite nicely taking on the smaller Boeing 737s and Airbus A320s, and Bombardier just about got there as well. But Bombardier sold out its CS-100/-300 programme to Airbus (adopted as the Airbus A220) and Boeing is now in the process of mostly taking over Embraer.

The Russians never quite stepped up despite producing aircraft that seemingly fit the bill. They even had widebody passenger aircraft in the form of the Ilyushin Il-86, followed by the Il-96. But they too had almost no impact. Their current offerings are struggling in the shape of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 and the upcoming Irkut MC-21 isn’t inspiring much confident either.

The only chance of real competition in the coming decade looks to be the in the form of the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of Corporation (COMAC) from China – a company set up with the sole objective of reducing China’s dependency on Boeing and Airbus. And it’s China’s backing and determination that makes this a serious competitor. They already have their first aircraft – the regional jet ARJ121 in service since 2016. The first narrow-body, the C919 is in testing and due for entry into service in 2021 with in the air and testing. The C919 is a direct competitor to the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320, and already has a 1000+ orders and commitments, which China can ensure internally. Quite a few more can be sold within their circle of influence – even if the aircraft isn’t quite up to the Boeing or Airbus standard.

And then there is the widebody CRAIC C929, which will now be made as a joint venture with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation to challenge the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A330/A350. That is expected to start flying in 2025.

By the end of the next decade, COMAC may be the biggest challenge Airbus and Boeing have ever faced, and one they cannot buy out.

First Class No More!

This is one of the more straightforward developments that is happening across the business. Airlines had economy class and first class up till the 1980s. Business class began to evolve in the late 1970s / early 1980s as the third in-between option. It really came into its own in 1995 when British Airways introduced the first lie-flat business class seat, and since then first class has been on the decline.As things stand, first class is already disappearing from most long-haul flights and the entire innovation focus appears to be on making business class more comfortable for the guest and cost-efficient for the airline.

While there is demand for it, there just isn't enough of it to justify the space a typical first class occupies. The low load factors mean these spacious and very heavy cabins are being flown over long distances unoccupied - space that could otherwise be allocated to six to nine economy class seats, or maybe two ro three business class seats. Nothing beats the margins an airline makes when they sell First Class, but that doesn't happen as much as needed.

I don’t expect to see ‘F’ class being offered beyond the late 2020s at all once the current offerings phase out. It will be economy premium economy and business class for long haul, and economy and premium economy for short haul. First Class or First Class++ luxuries will exist only in executive jets.

The Return of the Jumbo Jet

I’ve always said that the Airbus A380 is the greatest aircraft that should have never been made. It’s not a failure because of its size, but simple because of the extra engines it carries. Had it entered service in the early 1990s, the Boeing 747 would have had a very tough time. It is unfortunately the newest of the old planes, made in the wrong era.

However, there is still demand for an aircraft of its size. It is the perfect sized aircraft to connect mega-hubs, and there are enough of them out there. And with air-travel growing year on year at 5% per annum on average, the existing problems of airport and airspace congestion are only going to get worse. It was not the size of the aircraft that was the problem with the Airbus A380, it was more the operating costs in comparison to the other aircraft.

I expect to see a 550-600 seat aircraft announced by the time the decade runs out with two engines and a composite frame. If the Cost per Available Seat Kilometre of this aircraft becomes comparable to the Boeing 787 or the Airbus A350, airlines will order them.

Pilotless Aircraft – Would you Fly It?

The technology to operate an aircraft without a pilot has existed since at least the 1970s. And now it is actually established in the military with drones. But to get people to board an aircraft without pilots is a big ask. I don’t see that happening for quite a while. The only change that might happen is for freighters and that might too be limited to reducing to a single pilot on shorter routes. We might start to see freighter drones towards the end of the decade.

Alternate Fuel and Energy Sources for Aircraft

Airlines have become the target of choice for environmentalist group and that attention has forced airlines to look at options to study and reduce their carbon footprint. That is going to improve simply because it makes good business sense to do so for airlines. Fuel burn represents the single greatest cost for most airlines, and with the introduction of newer aircraft and more efficient engines, the impact will only reduce.

What I don’t see happening in the next decade is anything else besides that. I don’t believe biofuels will go beyond anything but the occasional proving flights. And technology isn’t even remotely close to allow development of feasible electric or solar powered engines.

Environment impact will only be reduced with more efficient aircraft that still use conventional Jet A-1 Fuel, just a lot less of it. Hopefully, there will be more attention paid to congestion in the airspace and airports. You can have the most fuel-efficient aircraft in the world, but if aircraft are placed in low-altitude hold above a busy airport for extended periods, have to wait endlessly in a queue for takeoff or have to fly longer distances due to airspace congestion, there isn’t much an airline can do about it.

This article represents my personal opinion and is based on personal research done out of interest for this subject. I would be happy to know your views and thoughts on this, and your predictions as well.