Commentary | UN Insights: A Comprehensive Review of Afghanistan Monitoring Report

On 8th July, 15th report of ISIL (Daesh) & Al-Qaeda/Taliban Monitoring Team was submitted to UN Security Council. It depicts that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an alliance of extremist groups, is “the largest terrorist group” in Afghanistan. Moreover, it receives growing support from the country’s Interim rulers to conduct cross-border attacks in Pakistan.

The U.N. sanctions monitoring team released the assessment amid a dramatic surge in TTP-led terror attacks against Pakistani security forces & civilians, killing hundreds of them in recent weeks.

Al Qaeda Support

Al Qaeda’s infrastructure in Afghanistan continues to expand, despite the Monitoring Team’s claim that “the Taliban have done much to constrain the activities of Al-Qaida and their affiliates.” The UN organization then seemingly contradicts itself when it notes that “Member States remarked that its reorganization and training activities, as well as new travel into Afghanistan, indicate that the group still uses Afghanistan as a permissive haven under the Taliban, raising questions about Al-Qaida’s intent.”

Al Qaeda is operating training camps in the Afghan provinces of Kandahar and Takhar, the United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reported. These facilities are in addition to those located in 10 other provinces that the Monitoring Team identified over the past year.

Additionally, Monitoring Team notes that Al Qaeda “still uses Afghanistan as a permissive haven under the Taliban.”

The Afghan Interim Govt. support for Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) includes several key areas:

Weapons and Training: The Taliban have supplied weapons to TTP & facilitated training, particularly with support from Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS).

Financial Support: The Taliban reportedly provides TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud with 3.5 million Afghanis ($50,500) monthly. In mid-2023, the defacto authorities remain concerned that excessive pressure might push TTP towards collaboration with ISIL-K. Mehsud is considered to maintain a backdoor line of communication with ISIL-K to keep options open.

Safe Havens: The Taliban Policy regarding TTP shifted. The Taliban have facilitated guest houses in Kabul for TTP leaders & issued passes to senior TTP figures for ease of movement & immunity from arrest. The positive relationship with TTP was intended to ensure continued alliance with the Taliban and to dissuade defections to ISIL-K. On 5 March 2024, Noor Wali Mehsud informed media outlets that he had recently met Hibatullah, prompting immediate denials by the Taliban.

Operational Support: The Taliban have allowed TTP to conduct terrorist operations in Pakistan, often utilizing Afghan fighters. Estimating its strength at around 6,000-6,500 fighters, the report notes that TTP is now the largest among the two dozen or so such groups that enjoy the freedom to maneuver, under the oversight of the Taliban regime.

“TTP has intensified attacks against Pakistan, significantly increasing from 573 in 2021 to 715 in 2022 and 1,210 in 2023, with the trend continuing into 2024,” the report, updated until May 28, states.

IS-K: IS-K, which has recently expanded its outreach to Russia, claiming a couple of daring attacks, features prominently in the UN report, which notes the Afghan Taliban's success against this threat, and also highlights glaring gaps. IS-K & its affiliates in the region are estimated to have around 4,000 to 6,000 fighters, while others assess the core strength at 2,000-3,500.

They have reportedly infiltrated the main ministries of interior, defense, and intelligence while also seeking to embed members in other groups such as TTP covertly.

While acknowledging Kabul's claim that its operations had pushed key IS-K personnel across its borders, the report voiced concern over the impact this displacement would have on the security situation in Pakistan, Iran, and other Central Asian states.

For a comprehensive review of the report, please see: