Coming to terms with "Emergence"

Have you ever noticed a Q&A session where people asking the questions inadvertently try to get ahead of themselves? You may have noticed such future-scenario questioning by audiences in TV shows, panel discussions, celebrity interviews etc. and if you have worked in a corporate organization, in the "open houses" or "town halls" where senior management representatives may have addressed the staff. For example, on a TV talk-show, if the discussion is on global-warming and climate change, a member of the audience may ask questions on (a) how a specific initiative on attempting to reduce the carbon footprint in Asia may impact the Indian economy over the next decade and (b) what steps are being thought of to address that issue, when no clear linkage has yet been established between the carbon-footprint problem and the Indian economy. The answer to such questions would be speculative at best.

Most often, when there is a roll-out of a new initiative, a policy, a process, a new design, a new framework, a new mission, or a new intent, many of the questions that come up do not find complete perfect answers. At the time of the conception of the new program or product or whatever these may be, the creators of such designs are expected to have thought through every present and future possibility in terms of benefits, pitfalls, side-effects and collateral damage, as well as micro-details around the impact and influence of the new situation. They are expected to have clarity around every conceivable hypothetical scenario that can occur - they should be able to predict the future with or without a crystal ball.

The human mind seems to be more sensitive to danger and threat than pleasure and benefits. Naturally, any new introduction elicits an apprehensive neural response before it is comprehended completely, and that is understandable. But the skepticism sometimes extends into seeking answers which have not yet been thought of because they will emerge only when those questions present themselves through corresponding situations. There may be no opportunities to address the problem before it presents itself, and this is where pre-supposition probably fails. This brings us to the concept of "Emergence",

An individual of average intelligence and imagination can probably visualize two or three steps ahead in terms of possible outcomes and consequences (but there can be exceptions, I am sure even in the average intelligent population!). There are many problems and situations in life where we are not able to visualize all the outcomes or possibilities because of many independent and dependent variables in the environment, that one may have no control over. In such cases, the problems and situations have to be dealt with as they "emerge" because they may not have been identified or recognized as such earlier or the line-of-sight is not clear enough initially for clear-cut answers to present themselves. Complex problems are often emergent, because the complexities may not have revealed themselves earlier, and one can only unravel them as we embark on the journey and discover them along the way. Solutions or even approaches to deal with such situations need to be conceived by navigating pathways during the journey. There will be roadblocks, hurdles and dilemmas to be resolved for sure, some of them seemingly intractable. A great deal of faith that " we will prevail" will be required. However, there are generally no guarantees and no lifelines while dealing with emergent situations. What will sustain is the vision and the end-state that is desired, necessitating that leaders articulate the picture-of-the-future as clearly as possible to galvanize followers to enlist to the cause, however perilous it may seem.

"Problems" (the word's negative connotation needs to be ignored here) can be classified according to the level of simplicity or conversely, complexity, into four broad types, (also known as the "Taxonomy of Problem types"):

1. Simplistic - there is only one factual answer, e.g. who was the first President of the United States of America?
2. Deterministic - only one answer is correct, but the problem needs to be solved by an algorithm, criteria or formula, e.g. what is the area of a square whose side is 20 inches?
3. Random - different answers are possible, and all can be identified, e.g. which car is most likely to win the finals of the Formula 1 Grand Prix Race in 2019?
4. Indeterminate - different answers are possible, but conjectural, being influenced by a variety of factors, sometimes in contradiction and sometimes tangential, or both, and not all of these factors can be identified in advance, e.g. what are the prospects of global trade in the next decade?

Emergent "problems" or initiatives can be viewed as extensions of "Indeterminate" problems. Elements and factors that contribute to emergent issues revolve around the need for accurate and precise information which often is elusive in such situations. The human mind is programmed to avoid uncertainties and minimize risks in almost all new situations that it encounters. A mix of "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" play critical influencing roles in emergent situations, leading to the emotional discomfort that people experience in such scenarios. Uncertainties and unknowns arise because of incomplete information, contradictory elements, unreliable sources, noise or confusing data, and scenarios that have not yet been imagined or conceived in the mind. The emotional "chimp" (ref. "The Chimp Paradox" by Prof.Steve Peters) in the human mind is afraid of uncertainty and can overpower rational thought in such situations, wherein fear of the unknown weighs in heavily.

Perhaps the most critical skill is to learn to manage the "chimp" in the human mind, which otherwise can hijack the rational thought process. Other key skills to develop are intuition, anticipation and the ability to adapt to changes on the fly, in this context, backed by rigorous data/information analysis and comprehension, which do not go away. While many of us cannot metamorphose into astrologers, predicting outcomes or consequences with accuracy and certainty as a skill could command a premium. What could be valuable are the competencies of curiosity, resilience, perseverance and facing uncertainty with panache, to embrace this concept.

In summary, "Emergence" about life's journey into the future where one has to embark on a voyage of discovery and adapt to emerging situations by deriving solutions, workarounds or coping mechanisms along the way. The future of leadership lies in dealing effectively with this phenomenon.

Note: The above article/post, with its contents is purely the personal view of the author, expressed purely in his personal capacity and is not related to any specific existing organization, institution, group or individual. Any such perceived resemblance or derived linkage or relationship is purely coincidental and unintended.