Coming soon! The new European Super League

The move by some of Europe’s biggest clubs to completely restructure football at the highest level of the game sent shockwaves across the world and generated an incredibly strong response from fans and governing bodies alike. Real Madrid President Florentino Perez, however, is not a man used to losing, and while the initial approach failed this is merely the end of the beginning not the beginning of the end.?

But why has this come about and what is driving what many perceive as one of the most destructive ideas the game has ever seen?

Let’s start by considering whether the thinking behind the ESL actually stands up to scrutiny.

Belief 1:?Younger generations aren’t as interested in football as previous ones?

While it's undoubtedly true the way football fans now consume football has changed due to media landscape evolution, is it also true that younger generations are far less interested in football than previous ones? And if something doesn’t radically change will these generations simply be lost to the game forever??

Well, if you’re to believe those selling change the game faces an existential crisis with interest steadily waning amongst younger generations, who will never come back to the sport. If you’re to believe those managing change, then the shift is in how content is consumed not that interest per se is rapidly declining.

Of course, the truth lies somewhere in between. And there are several macro factors to consider when evaluating these findings.?

Firstly, the game itself, and major European clubs have all witnessed exponential growth in their fanbases over the last decade. Most of the big clubs like to showcase 500m+ fans and followers when pitching to sponsors. And if those numbers are even reasonably close to reality, then this growth cannot solely be attributed to older audiences engaging with these clubs.?

The only means by which this could be possible was if games were broadcast into a territory for the first time, or internet access was suddenly established which opened up new media, and those who responded to these changes were solely older generations. Yet global distribution of European football rights has been well-established for over a decade. There are few territories not covered. And the idea that only older audiences would be attracted to these clubs is not how exponential growth of a mainstream product works. It’s not selective.?

Secondly, we’ve also seen an emerging trend over the last decade whereby fans increasingly follow players from club to club, with social followings growing and declining just as quickly as the transfer has occurred. Concurrently, another quirk of modern fandom is that lots of fans now support multiple teams. Half and half scarves now rather dated with some fans supporting up to 5 teams at any one time.?

Both of these trends are neither small nor the regular behaviour of an older demographic, which means the game is still attracting millions of younger fans who support and follow all around the world.?

But the overall proportion of younger fans following football versus previous generations has indeed declined. And this trend is noticeable across all of sports.

The reasons for this aren’t as simple as increasing apathy. It’s the synergetic effect of the following factors 1.) an explosion in media choice driven by technology 2.) football’s central role in propping up the old-world broadcast TV model 3.) football’s inability to recognise, respond or in some cases even care about the changing needs of the younger generations 4.) Competitive interests reacting to the needs of younger generations much more effectively than football.

Football historically played a dominant role in the lives of my generation and those that came before. But we didn’t have the broad range of participatory media through which to express or explore our fandom that today’s generations do. There were still plenty of competing choices for our interests, be it wrestling, gaming, or movies. But the ability to go further with these passions was restricted by how few outlets there were for individual expression.

But those heady heights of footballs dominance over a narrow one-directional media landscape are gone forever. The sheer range of media choices available to everyone, not just younger generations, now makes that a non-starter. However, evolving from a position of dominance to one that is still able to battle for market leadership is a privileged position to work from.?

The challenge now is to ensure growth and sustainability can still be achieved in a much more competitive market but by new means. And it’s crucial that football reaches younger audiences at scale and frequently before they become lost to the game, not because they never had the potential to become fans, but because their fandom was never awoken. Getting into football aged thirty is not the same as taking up golf at thirty. It’s a sport where the fires are lit at an early age. But if football doesn’t light the spark, then the latent potential of younger generations will forever be unmanifested.??

Therefore, the worry should not be, are younger generations no longer interested in football but how do we reach them and awaken their fandom before it’s too late and they gravitate to other interests where they are better understood and better served.?

Football must also accept there are some entirely logical reasons why it’s been difficult for younger generations to engage, even if they wanted to. For example, the average age of match going EPL fan is now 45+, driven largely by inflation in ticket prices which have sky rocketed over the last 30 years. By turn, that means the football experience for a younger fan is markedly different to previous generations with their access to the atmosphere and culture of a live game largely cut off to them.?

So they seek out content. But again much of this (especially the 90mins) sits behind a paywall or multiple paywalls, where cumbersome subscriptions to a broadcast model are required. This means many can’t watch on their own terms, either locked out by price or not catered for by their media preferences. And what would anyone do in that case? Find alternatives of course. Especially ones which are accessible, affordable and encourage greater participation.?

Music, fashion, film & TV, and the fandoms which surround these passions have been able to evolve more effectively than those of football. And that’s because football’s marriage to the broadcast TV model has been one of endless riches, almost impossible for all stakeholders to unhook themselves from. It would require huge transitional change to move from this model to one more focused on deriving value from a total football content & media ecosystem.?

But it’s also one of the main reasons why there has been a decline in football fandom amongst younger generations, which for the time being while not cataclysmic, will continue to grow until a more holistic approach is taken.?

Belief 2: Younger generations have shorter attention spans, so formats must reflect this

This belief is born from a cultural change which affects all generations not just younger ones i.e. how much time we now spend on our phones. Combined with the endless scrolling and addiction like behaviours that come with social media, online shopping, and messaging.?

However, there are no end of examples which counter this argument with many younger people happy to binge watch Netflix series or spend weeks locked in to League of Legends gameplay.?

This misheld belief led to Perez claiming that the ESL would need to shorten games to keep younger fans attention, altering the very fabric of a product that has been the one of the world’s most successful entertainment creations for over a century. Football’s equivalent of new Coke .

But attention can be fleeting or lasting. And it really isn’t a generational thing. Plenty of GenX & Boomers are just as addicted to their phones as GenZ.?

The drivers of attention towards content are myriad, they aren’t solely about duration. They’re an alchemy of duration, quality, scarcity, participation, and intensity.?

The challenge for football should be to better understand attention driving factors and consider how they can be leveraged concurrently to create a better blend. They need to be considered both in the macro and micro as part of a total content & media ecosystem. The football product isn’t just the 90 mins anymore. So, does it really matter if a fan doesn’t consistently watch the live game if they are significantly served and engaged elsewhere with different formats? And especially if they can be monetised?

Either way, if football only views attention through the prism of the duration of the live match and seeks to alter this fundamental element of the product, then it will continue to come up with wrong solutions to a misunderstood problem.

Belief 3: The EPL is running away from everyone else so radical action is needed

While Perez claims that media rights are stagnating or declining, so a new catalyst for growth is needed, this isn’t completely true as only Ligue 1 and Serie A are flat after Covid. Right cycles continue to trend positively but the gains are much smaller. The real problem lies in the rate by which the EPL is outpacing its European rivals, with its rights cycle revenues now competing with the NFL.?

The EPL also has several competitive advantages which help it overshadow its rivals globally including the widespread use of the English language; the connection many countries have to British culture, good and bad (a historical legacy of hard and soft power); and GMT helping connect with both the US and Asian markets efficiently through scheduling.?

There are also specific market by market comparisons from which the EPL benefits be it: a collective rights sales process unlike La Liga; the 50+1 model of club ownership in Germany making outside investment less attractive; the bureaucracy of Italy a huge hindrance to significant and speedy change many Serie A team’s need to undergo; and tax conditions in France not particularly ideal for running a football club.?

And there are lots of further subjective considerations from the intensity of the football itself; to the quality of stars on show; to the atmospheres in stadia. But just because something was, doesn’t mean it always will be. Empires rise and fall.?

The ESL was an attempt by European clubs to attach themselves to the juggernaut of the EPL. It was an admission they were being beaten badly off-the-pitch. It was both a strategic capitulation (If you can’t beat em join em), while at the same time a means by which to sabotage the EPL product.?

While for the time being this strategy has failed, that doesn’t mean other strategic moves can’t be made or that the EPL won’t make its own strategic errors, one of which may actually be the creation of an ESL. In the 90s Serie A was the land of milk and honey, with an unrivalled roster of the greatest names the game have ever seen. And yet now it feels like a league that has completely lost its specialness. From the greatest heights to unimaginable lows in only 30 years.?

So, European clubs will still be considering what they could do to challenge the EPL’s dominance.?

One means by which they could do so, would be to review the business & commercial model of their clubs, whereby they pivot to fan-first, data-led, media, retail & tech businesses. Jump ahead of the EPL to prove that there is a better way to monetise fans. Of course, that’s time-consuming, expensive and challenging which is why simply creating a new product for broadcast was the aim of the ESL. It’s also hard to compete on the revenue front when so many of the EPL clubs are propped up by sovereign wealth and US billionaires.?

Another alternative might be to resurrect a European Super League but without the EPL teams. Bandy together all the best clubs across Europe and compete head-to-head with a new product. One this time that includes many of the most storied teams in European history (Bayern, Celtic, Ajax, Benfica etc.), as opposed to the EPL clubs.?

The other factor that could shake things up significantly is if the EPL decides to commit to its own D2C platform globally. A Premier League Netflix while a significant revenue opportunity for the EPL, might actually be a huge opportunity for other leagues to fill a gap. Broadcasters worldwide would still need football content to prop up their business models. And with a subscription fee likely to be the chosen model by which the EPL monetises, this would likely reduce the number of people who could view EPL content significantly.?

Why? Well, it’s often overlooked how important free-to-air has been to the growth of the EPL in major markets across Africa and Asia, where many can’t afford to watch by other means. Reducing the viewership of the EPL while increasing revenue could actually lead to brand shrink.??

For the time being, however, the EPL’s dominance looks unassailable so European clubs are naturally still committed to an ESL style solution that includes them.?

Belief 4: Volatility and market shocks restrict growth in club valuations

The impact of Covid on football and sport in general cannot be understated. Clubs have haemorrhaged costs which they have struggled to recoup quickly. Of course the majority of these costs shot out the door on players and wages, which is why a European-wide if not worldwide approach to capping salaries is badly needed, although unlikely to ever happen – player power is paramount.?

Many of the clubs claimed their financial ruin was imminent without an ESL, which is why they were so attracted to share of a €3.5bn grant provided by JP Morgan. But it’s likely that their profligate spending would continue under this new model anyway, as they chase success at any cost. Winning the ESL would become just as important as winning the UCL.

Therefore, removal of the ultimate risk in football, promotion and relegation, was core to the ESL. And with US billionaires becoming the dominant investors in European football, especially EPL teams, and return on investment their only mantra, creating a closed league from which you can’t be removed no matter how poor on-field performance remains one of the quickest ways to increase valuations. A quick comparison with MLS clubs shows why this is such an attractive proposition, with the value to revenue multiples already over three times higher.?

There are also some interesting comparisons from the US film industry, which shows what happens when you create a set formula which you repeat ad infinitum. The Marvel Cinematic Universe, and the broader adoption of film franchising in general, has led to exponential growth in revenue for the major studios but at the same time has overseen an incredible decline in independent output from indie filmmakers.?

In fact, the film industry now seems intent on homogenising itself to the point whereby almost every release can simply be created by AI and regurgitates a variant of the same story over and over again. The problem with this of course is that it narrows the human experience considerably.?

By comparison, a European Super League would eventually homogenise the football product, having overseen a decline in smaller teams everywhere, to the point whereby the football experience is considerably narrowed. For romantics that in itself is why a European Super League is so feared. It’s great for billionaires and bankers but not so great for those who believe there’s still a place for the Scorsese’s or Warnock’s of this world.?

Either way, the billionaires won’t stop. And manipulating market conditions to their own ends, in whatever future form that may take, will continue to fuel their decisions.?

Belief 5: The only way to solve these problems is the European Super League

It only took a matter of days for the ESL to collapse before our very eyes. If you want to know what product-market fit looks like, then this isn’t it.?

But could it have worked if better thought through and if there was even a semblance of a considered comms strategy (undoubtedly the worst launch of any sporting competition we’ve ever seen)?

Well, not if the audience challenge isn’t better understood. The European Super League failed primarily not because of its financial motivations (although these are distasteful to many) but because it misunderstood the audience, their needs, behaviours and motivations.?

Despite a belief that younger fans would welcome such a project with open arms, research after the failed launch clearly showed the majority across Europe were against the ESL’s formation, with the UK the most fervent in their dislike for the project, where only 21% of 18–34-year-olds in the UK (a mix of GenZ & Millennials) came out in support.?

Therefore, any new ESL variant must start with a better understanding of the audience if it is to succeed. It needs to consider the total product concept i.e. not just the 90mins; how content is priced to ensure greater access for younger generations; how it is sliced, diced and distributed beyond the narrow broadcast model to ensure greater audience participation; and how its promoted i.e. in a way that appeals to the audiences desires and not just a press release claiming victimhood.

Simply creating a new broadcast product, which only differs slightly to UEFA’s reformulated Champions League won’t cut it and makes the financial motivations more salient than the product itself.??

Over time more favourable conditions may naturally come around which see a larger number of younger fans gravitate towards an ESL variant. But billionaires are not renowned for their patience, and the distance between their lives and those of the audiences they look to monetise couldn’t be further removed. So, it’s highly likely future attempts will face similar resistance, but with greater manipulation and power games used to force a new product through.??

What remains certain is that those who sought to upend European football aren’t going away, and if there’s one thing we know about billionaires it’s that they’re not happy until they get what they want.?

The European Super League is dead, long live the European Super League!

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