The coming dying of the automobile industry - and you will not guess the reason.
Oliver Fels
Passion for leadership, sustainable development & value chains | Speaker ] Trainer
In the next 50, years, the automobile industry as we know it will be history. Dead and gone. VW, Chrysler, BMW, Ford, they all will vanish.
You think BEVs will kill them? Costs, energy? No. Not close enough.
They will kill themselves. With the introduction of fully autonomous driving.
Imagine a world in which cars don't need drivers any longer. Fully autonomous traffic. Even the kids can operate these. You no longer need a drivers license or Mum and Dad to get you somewhere. Or walk to the bus station.
Hop in and tell the destination.
People will quickly get used to the comfort of cars with no steering wheel.
And why should we then possess cars if we don't drive them ourselves? If kids grow up with the idea of just calling a car which drives them anywhere? Without the fear of getting too drunk to drive back home?
The first services are under development to build fully autonomous robot cars. Mobiles which can provide cheap driving services.
Which are not worthless assets but operate 24/7 thus reducing the overall costs per mile and minute and creating revenue during the day.
Which do not rely on expensive drivers like taxis.
For which the clients have no longer to take care about insurances, tires or fuel because they will get an all-inclusive package.
The market today is already valued with several hundred billion of euros. And it will massively augment. As usual, China is leading here.
Owning a car will no longer be attractive as people will compare the overall monthly costs and decide towards cost effectiveness and comfort.
And space for car ports, etc. sealing the soil can be preserved. Greener surfaces, higher air quality will be the result.
And as cities more and more ban traffic from their cores, such services will become highly attractive as an alternative to public transport.
The next and maybe the one after it will be the last ones requiring a drivers license.
With the shift of paradigm, the demand for cars being built will drop dramatically down to 20% in the next 50 years. And if that happens, their business model will no longer be affordable.
It all depends if and when the challenges for fully autonomous driving will be solved.
Its acceptance will also friend on the availability of flexible solutions for corporations, families, luxury, etc. and the available service fee plans.
But it will have disruptive consequences, when in place.