Central Texas is facing an imminent water crisis. The Colorado River and Highland Lakes, Austin’s water lifeline, are at alarmingly low levels. If future weather patterns resemble the severe droughts of the 1950s or 1700s, coupled with the ongoing impacts of global warming and sedimentation, water availability could plummet by over 80% by 2080. This is exacerbated by a rapidly growing population that has increased twelvefold since 1930 and is projected to double again by 2080.
Despite once leading in water conservation, Austin’s efforts have stagnated, and per capita water use has been on the rise. Without a renewed and vigorous commitment to conservation, we risk a catastrophic depletion of our water reserves.
In light of this critical state of our water supply, Save Our Springs Alliance enlisted Paul Robbins, a dedicated environmental analyst, author, publisher, and advocate in the Austin area, to dig deeper into the historic and current water trends, and clarify what lies ahead. Robbins is well known for his comprehensive work on the Austin Environmental Directory, a crucial resource on environmental issues, services, and organizations in Central Texas.?
Read his insights on the current state of our water resources and what lies ahead if we don’t change course.
Part 1 –?Six Steps to Year Zero
- In This Story…The Texas Weather: Where Erratic is “Normal” —?All City of Austin water depends on the Colorado River and the Highland Lakes, where rainfall gyrates wildly from year to year.? In April 2024, the Lakes were already at one of their lowest levels in history.??
- The Real Drought of Record —?If the weather matches the state’s worst historically recorded drought of the 1950s, water availability would have dipped about 25% in 2023.??If the weather matched the state’s probable worst drought of the 1700s, water availability would have dropped about 50%.??
- Things Can Always Get Worse: Drought with Global Warming —?If global warming is not curtailed, computer simulations predict that with additional decreased river flows, water availability would dropped dramatically in this decade, and over 80% by 2080.
- Increasing Demand: Too Many People Using Too Much Water —?Central Texas population has increased 12-fold since 1930.? It is on track to double again by 2080.? In 2022, Austin reached its all-time record for consumption.
- Stagnating Water Conservation Efforts —?For over a decade, Austin’s water use per person was declining.? However, water conservation has lost momentum, and per person use has actually increased in the last few years.
- Sedimentation —?All inland water bodies are vulnerable to sedimentation from erosion, causing a loss in storage capacity.? While continued annual sedimentation of the Highland Lakes will be minor, it will also be cumulative and unrelenting.??
- And if Everything Goes Wrong —?This worst-case scenario, layering drought, global warming, population increases, lack of future conservation, and sedimentation, shows the Highland Lakes running dry between 2030 and 2040.
- It Can’t Happen Here (But It Happened There) —?Skeptics who think that empty Highland Lakes are not possible need only look at the Colorado River as little as 130 miles west of our region, where empty lakes have indeed occurred.? ?
Co-Founder & CCO at Holocia - Better futures for all, through walkable communities with regenerative farms. Regenerate soils, relocalize economies, and regenerate society!
7 个月Sad, but not surprising. City leaders have encouraged reckless growth with no thought of sustainability or future water supplies.