College or Gap Year? An Insider's Take

I'm a faculty member within a large university system, and I'm also a career consultant with a background in helping employers acquire entry level talent...this has led to me getting a lot of questions from students and parents regarding my take on whether students should attend/return to college in the fall, or take a gap year. I'm going to try and provide my thoughts and advice below - my short answer (for those not interested in reading further): you/your child should probably attend/return to school, unless you/they have a decent paying job that is relatively secure (I'll discuss 'why' in more detail below).

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IF you/your child have/has a decent paying and secure job: then taking a gap year from your education is probably the right move (again, provided it is decent paying AND relatively secure). Universities (and the cities/towns they're situated in) are living in the same fluid world as the rest of us, which means it's impossible to predict what the upcoming academic year is going to look like for students. I want to emphasize this though: most universities and faculty are working extremely hard to make sure that they're ready for any scenario presented in the fall, and to provide students with the best possible experience regardless of what things look like in August. That said, the uncertainty around the immediate future warrants skepticism and concern from students and parents...so, if you or your child is making good money in a secure job (even if it isn't in your/their projected future career), taking a gap year is what I'd recommend: save money/put a dent in any student loans you might have; and pad your resume while building your applied skills and your professional network.

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If you/your child DON'T/DOESN'T have a decent paying and secure job: attending/returning to university is almost certainly the best bet for the following reasons:

• It's unlikely that you/your child is going to secure a decent paying and secure job over the next 9 months, without a college degree. I am generalizing here, but that's the reality we live in - you/they will be competing for entry level jobs against experienced professionals who have been laid off; that's not the kind of market you want to be looking for work in as a young professional, with limited/no experience and no degree.
• Admissions (for new college students) will likely be laxer at most universities/programs, courses will likely be a little easier, and there will be more pass/fail courses than typically on offer (what I wouldn't give to have had that option for calculus!). If you're going to enroll in the required courses that you dread the most, this is probably the year to do it! I know that academics who read this will be offended by this bullet, but I stand by my projection and have no problem with students being strategic and taking advantage of the world around them, provided they aren't being unethical (cheating, being dishonest, etc.).
• Taking a gap year could lead to you having to start paying back student loans...this is still only a possibility; there's currently a freeze on the collection of all federal student loans until Oct. 2020 (you can still pay if you want to, but don't have to), this date could be extended but it may not be. Ending up in a situation where you're unemployed/underemployed and having to make payments on student loans, before you've finished your degree, is not a good place to be in. This bullet is obviously only applicable to people with student loans, but is an important one to include here. You should take the time to inform yourself on your student loan situation, and how it changes if you take a gap year (this is especially important for those who have taken out loans from non Federal Student Aid lenders).
• Taking a gap year will almost certainly lead to a significant lifelong earning hit, which I outline in more detail below: If you want to get a concise breakdown of this, jump to the 2023-2027 timeline below.

Reasonable hypothetical: let's imagine you take a gap year, and you don't experience a best or worst case scenario but something in between, it might look something like this: you're employed part-time for the entire year, or full-time for part of the year in some kind of entry-level position or service job; by the end of the year you've added some admittedly valuable experience to your background and resume, and you managed to earn something in the realm of $25K, before you resume your education in the Fall of 2021. Good for you! Right? Well, here's what needs to be kept in mind:

• If taking a year off results in you starting your future career one year later than you would have if you didn't take a year off (let's say 2024 instead of 2023), you're giving up approximately a years worth of salary, and possibly retirement cash in a 401K...let's expand on what that might actually amount to: let's say the job you secure following graduation comes with a $42K starting salary (not an unusually high salary...yours could be far higher depending on the industry/career you're going to enter and where it is) and an employer matching 401K; you've now forfeited $17K of salary that you'll never get back, and who knows how much from your 401K (let's imagine its only 2.5% of your salary that you dedicate to your 401K - which your employer matches, so 5% of 42K = $2.1K - only $1.05K is contributed by your employer, the other $1.05K was from your salary)...for purposes of making things easy (I hate math), let's just round it all up to $18K that you've forfeited by choosing to take a gap year (even though you earned $25K during that gap year). Assuming your career trajectory is the same regardless of whether you start it in 2023 or 2024, this is $18K that you'll never see or make back. I'm not going to get into the impact that this could have on things like your 401K's lifelong growth, or the lifelong growth of any savings you might set aside during 12 months (compounded interest is very real though, and without getting into detailed speculation it's reasonable to assume that the lifelong loss in interest from your 401K and any savings you start would be in the tens of thousands). NOTE: if you manage to earn $43K+ during your Gap-Year, then you're going to enter your career at less of a dis-advantage (still at a dis-advantage, I'll discuss more below) than had you not taken a gap year.
• Critical: as we discuss this, we're assuming that - since we're comparing Gap-Year-You to Non-Gap-Year-You - the future career of YOU (how long it takes to land a job out of college, what kind of job it is, what it pays, how well you perform and how quickly you advance) is going to progress at the same rate regardless of when it begins...because it's YOU in both scenarios.

Let's imagine that the company you start your career with provides employees with an annual raise of 3% (admittedly, this is very speculative given the world we currently live in...but once things stabilize this is not an outrageous expectation); and it takes 5 years before you get a meaningful promotion which leads to a 15% increase in salary (again, not an outrageous expectation in a stable economy). Below, I've provided a 5 year break down of annual earnings for Gap-Year-You, and Non-Gap-Year-You (note: I've rounded up or down to the nearest dollar for simplicity):

• 2023: Gap-Year-You (earns $0.00); Non-Gap-Year-You (earns $42K)
• 2024: Gap-Year-You (earns $42K); Non-Gap-Year-You (earns $43,260.00)
• 2025: Gap-Year-You (earns $43,260.00); Non-Gap-Year-You (earns $44,558.00)
• 2026: Gap-Year-You (earns $44,558.00); Non-Gap-Year-You (earns $45,895.00)
• 2027: Gap-Year-You (earns $45,895.00); Non-Gap-Year-You w/promo (earns $52,779.00)

In 5 years, with 3% annual raises and a 15% increase in salary as a result of a promotion after 5 years, Non-Gap-Year-You has earned: $228,492.00 - Gap-Year-You has earned: $175,713.00...that's a difference of $52,779.00 in earnings within the first 5 years of the same career. As you might expect, this number grows exponentially the further out we wander in your career (we're not even factoring in the difference in Non-Gap-Year-You and Gap-Year-You's 401Ks, or the timeline for repaying student loans for Non-Gap-Year-You vs. Gap-Year-You).

• Gap-Year-You might think, "Oh, I'll just out hustle Non-Gap-Year-You after graduation and catch up to them in lifelong earnings by year 5)...only problem is, you're talking about essentially out-hustling yourself! AND, you're talking about out-hustling yourself to the tune of $53K in 4 years! Non-Gap-Year-You isn't someone else, who has fewer skills or a lesser work-ethic than You, it IS you! You finding a way to out-hustle yourself is not likely.
• Gap-Year-You might also think that the 12 months of part-time, entry-level experience and/or service work is enough to result in them starting their career in 2024 at the same salary as Non-Gap-Year-You...this is HIGHLY unlikely, and in the interest of time I won't expand on 'why' here, but let's say that does actually happen (we can live in Gap-Year-You's dream world for a minute): Non-Gap-Year-You STILL has $18K more than Gap-Year-You, and still has 1 more year of experience in the company/industry, which will almost certainly result in an earlier promotion, leading to an additional $6,884.00 earned in 2027 than Gap-Year-You (remember, the career trajectory for Gap-Year-You and Non-Gap-Year-You remains the same, despite the highly unlikely event of Gap-Year-You securing a 3% higher starting salary out of school than Non-Gap-Year-You).

Money isn't everything, but it is obviously important. If you/your child do/does take a gap year, make sure you're aware of the short and long term financial implications of doing so.

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Below, I address some additional common questions I get related to the overarching query regarding whether or not students should attend/return to university, during COVID-19:

• What about year-long internships?: if they're unpaid, then my position on them is the same as my above position on not returning to school while not possessing a well paying and secure job (i.e., I don't recommend it). IF completing an internship leads to significant college credits (not just a couple), is required in order for you to graduate from your degree program (some programs require it), and/or pays well - then it could be a better option than returning to/attending university.
• What about traveling the world/country and finding myself/themselves?: honestly, good luck with that during a global pandemic that's shutting down (and re-shutting down) borders. Even if you're thinking of just travelling across your own country for a year it's going to be difficult, complicated, and expensive...even travelling on the cheap starts to become pricey when you stretch it out to weeks or months at a time (much less a year).
• What about learning to code or learning a second language?: if this lines up with your long-term career goals, could lead to college credit, and/or could have a meaningful positive impact on your career prospects down the road then this could be a worthwhile alternative to returning to/attending school. I must qualify that the previous statement is predicated on your ability to secure a free/affordable way of doing this (learning to code or learning a second language), having the discipline to make it happen, and completing programming that is quality/widely recognized (NOT subscribing to babel for 12 months). This isn't really THAT different from returning to/attending school, so unless you can find an affordable/free solution, then you're really comparing red apples to green apples.
• What about attending a technical or community college?: honestly (and some of my academic colleagues will hate me for saying this), this was a good idea before COVID-19 and will remain one throughout and following it...IF you can complete courses at a community or technical college that WILL transfer to your chosen degree program at a four year institution of your choice, and save lots of money - then you should seriously consider it as a viable option. Let me be clear about something though: your experience (academic and otherwise) is typically NOT going to be as rich and valuable at a technical/community college, as it will be at a reputable four year institution. YES, I am generalizing when I make that statement but it is NOT intended as a knock on technical or community colleges - usually, the most capable professors with the greatest expertise in their respective area(s) end up teaching at four year institutions; and usually, the out of classroom experience at a four year institution is far richer than at a community/technical college.
• Will a college degree even matter in the future?: this is a question that people (myself included) have been asking for years - decades even - and will continue to ask as long as universities exist. To date, all of the data paints an indisputable picture: people with four year degrees have better job-prospects, enjoy more lifelong job security, and have a significantly higher lifelong earning potential than those without four year degrees. Four year degree detractors will argue that you can't prove causation when considering the previous sentence, but the data remains the data. Will COVID-19 be the event that invalidates the value of a four year degree? I highly doubt it; the kind of systematic and extensive changes that'd have to occur in order for that to happen, when it comes to things like: hiring and promotion practices, in-house learning and development norms, and frankly K-12 education in this country, would need to be IMMENSE...we're not close to that, and I don't see that changing for the foreseeable future. In addition to the career and financial benefits of possessing a four year degree, there's the experiences (inside the classroom and out) associated with attending a four year university that many (myself included) consider invaluable: developing lifelong friendships; being challenged intellectually in ways you never have been before or will be again; growing your self-awareness in meaningful ways; participating in student clubs/organizations; attending sporting events; road-trips and spring-break trips with friends; the richest social scene most of us will ever experience; etc. GRANTED, it's the impact that COVID-19 is having on many of the experiences listed above that's creating so much uncertainty/skepticism around attending/returning to school at this moment (justifiably so).

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Separate important note: make sure you/your child remain(s) informed on how COVID-19 is impacting your/their student loan situation (if you/they have student loans). I won't get into it here, but the best resource for information on this is probably studentaid.gov. If you/they haven't checked this resource out, I strongly recommend you/they set aside an hour or so to investigate it.

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So, in conclusion: in my opinion, the vast majority of students will benefit more from attending/returning to university than practically any alternative (see above for the few instances where this isn't the case). Will the university experience for the 2020-2021 academic year be the same as it has been in the past - ABSOLUTELY NOT! How different it'll be is impossible to predict, but that doesn't mean it isn't still the better option for the vast majority of current and incoming college students.