College Enrollment Numbers / Cell Phone Ban Update / State Legislative Forecast / 2025 Reader Survey

With state legislative sessions set to kick off in most states (more than 40 state legislatures convene between January and March), 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for education policy. And even before legislatures kick into gear, a number of states are holding special organizational sessions this month to prepare for the work ahead.

New leadership – and increased federal flexibility – are likely to shape the state landscape, with eight newly elected governors taking office. While hot-button, partisan issues tend to get the most attention, there has been bipartisan alignment around a wide range of issues at the state level, from teacher recruitment and retention to an increased emphasis on career and technical education.

What’s past is often prologue when it comes to state legislatures, so recent years are a good barometer for what’s to come.

• Last year, forty-nine bills were introduced across 23 states addressing student cell phone use in schools, with California, Louisiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania all passing legislation to regulate smartphone use in classrooms.
• Also last year, state legislators filed 750 bills related to curriculum and standards, with 180 successfully enacted into law. Media literacy emerged as a particular area of focus, with 40 bills introduced and five enacted to help students navigate digital information and social media safely.
• Colorado and Mississippi both enacted major K-12 funding reforms, joining states such as Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Tennessee, which all implemented similar measures in recent years. Both Colorado and Mississippi adopted student-based funding models, which allocate resources to districts according to the unique learning needs of each student.
• States introduced nearly 60 pieces of Career and Technical Education-related legislation, ranging from Alabama’s alternative diploma pathway for students focused on career education to Oklahoma's aerospace and aviation career programs for K-12 schools.

Our team will be paying particularly close attention to governors' State of the State addresses in January and February. These speeches will be especially significant in states with new leadership, like Delaware, where governor-elect Matt Meyer campaigned on increased school funding and teacher pay; Indiana, where Mike Braun campaigned to transform education and workforce development through a robust school choice policy; North Carolina, where Josh Stein campaigned on modernizing education resources; and, North Dakota, where governor-elect Kelly Armstrong advocated for local control and parental choice while pushing to better align technical colleges with regional workforce needs.

While changes in Washington may dominate headlines, much of the substantive policymaking affecting schools, educators and students will happen in state capitols. Our team will be providing regular updates as these sessions unfold, tracking both broader trends and state-specific developments that could influence policy conversations nationwide.

Want to go deeper: our friends at the Education Commission of the States track thousands of pieces of education legislation each year. You can sign up for their updates here.

In this week’s edition of Notes, we round up the “Top 5 Articles of the Week.”

We’re also covering:

• Freshmen Enrollment is Still Down. Will More Colleges Face Closure?
• Cell Phones in Schools: Update
• Reading Curriculum Lawsuit Draws Skepticism

2025 Reader Survey

The year is coming to a close, and we want to hear from YOU. We are asking readers to fill out this market sentiment survey covering current and future education market conditions, key trends, and company priorities.

We’re looking forward to compiling and sharing the results in January!

Top 5 “What We’re Reading” Articles of the Week

Want to receive our daily summary of education industry and policy news? Sign up for What We’re Reading.

1. Howard expects to gain R-1, with other HBCUs soon to follow [Inside Higher Ed]
2. The Ed Equity Lab, A Leading College Pipeline, Achieves Great Success [Forbes, subscription model]
3. IDEA 2004 turns 20: How the landmark reauthorization changed special education [K-12 Dive]
4. Amazon commits $100 million to bridge inequalities in tech education [Fortune, subscription model]
5. The dark future of American child care [The Hechinger Report]

Freshmen Enrollment is Still Down. Will More Colleges Face Closure?

Last week, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) released a special analysis of its latest postsecondary enrollment data, commissioned by the National College Attainment Network (NCAN). It’s not pretty.

These findings—which include data from nearly 80% of all participating institutions, representing more than 1.4 million 18-year-old freshmen enrolled nationally—are up to date as of October 31:

• 18-year-old freshmen enrollment is down 5% across all institutional types, with declines recorded in 46 states. Freshman enrollment declined across all race and ethnicity groups, particularly of white (-10%), Multiracial (-8.3%), and Black (-8.2%) students. Female and male freshmen enrollment has fallen at the same rate (about 6%).
• Public and private nonprofit 4-year institutions are being hit the hardest, with enrollment declines triple that of public two-year institutions, which may indicate that students are seeking shorter, less expensive educational pathways in lieu of a bachelor’s degree.
• Institutions that serve high populations of Pell grant-eligible students are experiencing declines across all sectors, but especially private nonprofit 4-year institutions (-10%). Interestingly, high Pell-serving two-year institutions had the least significant enrollment losses for this fall (<1%) and experienced overall enrollment gains between fall 2022-2024 (+4.7%).
• For highly selective public and private 4-year schools, freshmen enrollment has plummeted, especially among Black (-16.9%), Multiracial (-14.2%), and Asian (-10.3%) students. White students and Hispanic students saw less precipitous declines (-5% and -7.9%, respectively).

NCAN's Elizabeth Morgan had this to say about the findings: “NCAN believes the delayed and dysfunctional 2024-25 FAFSA was the greatest detractor for enrollment overall. Other factors included the U.S. Supreme Court decision against the consideration of race in admissions as well as potentially the increasing cost of living, the lack of sufficient need-based financial aid, and lingering effects on students from their pandemic experiences. Also, a growing percentage of students who decline to share their race or ethnicity with their postsecondary institution is another possible factor when looking at the data. We’ll need more years of data, however, to separate the FAFSA factor from the other potential issues.”

But it’s just as much about what caused enrollment to plummet as it is about what could happen to colleges as a result.

Researchers affiliated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a new working paper this week, which offers a “state-of-the-state” on institutional closures and sheds light on what conditions make a college more likely to shut down. Their findings suggest that enrollment declines are likely to “significantly increase” annual college closures.

This is particularly true for colleges that are reliant on tuition dollars to keep the doors open and lights on. The most important source of revenue for private nonprofit and for-profit colleges (and second-most important source for public colleges) is revenue from tuition and fees, meaning these types of institutions are at higher financial risk than those with large endowments.

“Outside of the wealthiest 100 or so private colleges and many flagship public universities, most of higher education is struggling to balance budgets,” said Robert Kelchen, author of the report and head of the Department of Educational Leadership and Policy Studies at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

However, according to Kelchen, at-risk institutions are bracing for financial challenges associated with falling enrollment and are adapting to survive. “I don’t anticipate an enormous wave of closures, but the rate of closures will likely tick up a bit in the coming years. It would go substantially higher, but colleges are being more proactive to cut costs—academic departments, faculty, and staff—in an effort to stay ahead of financial challenges,” he said.

But when colleges can’t weather these storms, the communities in which they are based suffer.

A growing body of research suggests that the presence of a college can impact a community’s economic health. Higher ed institutions create steady jobs for local workers, serve as anchors for medical centers and hospitals, and help prepare people to work in economically vital industries—via traditional degree programs or non-degree credentials. In more rural areas, colleges serve as local hubs where the promise of educational opportunity and economic mobility are served up alongside civic engagements, arts and entertainment, and reliable support services. For many communities, a college closure is a devastating loss. [The New York Times, subscription model]

Enrollment can bounce back.

Enrollment declined dramatically during the pandemic, and then rebounded in 2023. Young people are still interested in earning a college degree, according to research by the nonprofit Common App, which showed a 10% YOY increase in applicant volume to its member schools as of November 1. [USA Today]

The 2025-26 FAFSA rollout has shown promise, and Congress has made a strong effort to solidify the rollout process for future years. [Inside Higher Ed]

Colleges are also taking steps to attract students back to campus:

• Schools nationwide have embraced direct admissions policies, in which they proactively offer admission to qualified students who haven’t yet applied. Common App President and CEO Jenny Rickard says direct admissions practices help students know they are “worthy and welcome” on college campuses. [Forbes, subscription model]
• Other institutions such as MIT, the University of Texas, and Carnegie Melon have recently gone tuition-free for students with financial need to improve affordability. [MONEY]
• Finally, some schools are beefing up their alternative credential offerings to meet increased demand for faster, more affordable pathways to the workforce. [Inside Higher Ed]

Cell Phones in Schools: Policy Update

What’s new: Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Education released the Planning Together: A Playbook for Student Personal Device Policies. The guide helps schools and districts create or update policies for student cell phone use, emphasizing collaboration with students, parents, and educators.

Why it matters: As cell phones become a central debate in education, schools are navigating how to balance classroom focus with connectivity and safety concerns.

By the numbers:

• 40+ states introduced legislation in the last two years related to student use of cell phones and/or social media protections.
• 18 states have passed state policy related to cell phone and/or social media use.

Now what?

• More states are likely to put forth legislation, especially since only eight states have split party between the governor and state legislature and there are three states with split state legislatures
• In addition to (or in absence of) state action, districts will continue to enact or iterate on local policies with many looking for guidance in balancing the need for fostering digital citizenship of students.
• Social media restrictions may increase as companies respond to international pressure; Australia is the first country to move forward with a ban on social media for minors under the age of 16. [The Associated Press]

TIMSS Test Reveals Sharp Decline in U.S. Math Achievement

U.S. math scores on the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) dropped sharply between 2019 and 2023, erasing decades of progress. Fourth graders fell by 18 points, while eighth graders plunged by 27 points—reaching levels last seen in 1995. [ABC News]

Why it matters: The steep decline highlights systemic challenges in math education, disproportionately affecting lower-performing students and exacerbating pre-existing gaps across socioeconomic and gender lines. [The New York Times, subscription model]

By the numbers:

• Global rankings: The U.S. now trails top-performing countries like Singapore, South Korea, and Japan. Some nations that historically ranked lower than the U.S. have overtaken it.
• Equity concerns: The lowest-performing fourth graders saw a 37-point drop, while their higher-performing peers maintained scores, signaling widening achievement gaps.

The context: While the pandemic disrupted education worldwide, experts argue that declines in U.S. math performance predate COVID-19. Contributing factors include inconsistent math standards across states and prolonged reliance on remote learning. [Chalkbeat]

What’s next: Policymakers and educators are being urged to rethink approaches to math instruction including both conceptual and procedural understanding, emphasizing engagement, creativity, and equity to counteract these declines and improve student outcomes.

Quick Takes

Reading Curriculum Lawsuit Draws Skepticism

Two Massachusetts families hope to form a class action lawsuit against literacy specialists Lucy Calkins, Irene Fountas, and Gay Su Pinnell, along with their publishers, alleging their reading curricula were marketed deceptively and caused significant harm to students. According to experts, the lawsuit – while novel – likely stands on shaky legal and substantive ground. [The Boston Globe, subscription model]

National Context: This lawsuit comes as 40+ states have adopted policies favoring the "science of reading," emphasizing explicit phonics instruction. Criticism of the defendants' methods gained prominence through the podcast Sold a Story. Of course, this debate is nothing new: the Sold a Story podcast - and the latest surge in state reforms - remain grounded in the work of the National Reading Panel, and a set of policies championed years earlier by the George W. Bush Administration.

Listen: Fixing Education in America on the A16Z Podcast

Whiteboard co-founder Anna Kimsey Edwards joined Prisms’ Anurupa Ganguly and Wonderschool’s Chris Bennett on this week’s Andreessen Horowitz podcast with Jeff Jordan.

People on the Move

• Dr. Van Davis has been selected as the new Executive Director of the WICHE Cooperative for Education Technologies (WCET), having previously served as Chief Strategy Officer of the same organization.
• Frank Dooley will step down as Chancellor of Purdue University at the start of 2025. Purdue will name an Interim Chancellor shortly as the university begins a search for Dooley’s successor.
• Saga Education is hiring a remote VP of External Affairs. Learn more and apply here.

Upcoming Events and Convenings

• EdGate: The State of Learning Standards 2024, December 17 at 2 p.m. ET, Virtual
• Axios: AI+ Summit, December 17 from 1:30-7 p.m. PT, San Francisco, CA
• Apprenticeships For America: How States Are Driving the Future of Apprenticeships, December 18 from Noon-1 p.m. ET, Virtual
• Arc Network: Future of Education Technology Conference, January 14-17, Orlando, FL
• Digital Promise: AI K12 Deeper Learning Summit, February 27-March 1, Anaheim, CA
• SXSW: SXSW EDU Annual Conference, March 3-6, Austin, TX

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