College Basketball Future Bets

With college football coming to an end on Monday, January 9th, the calendar officially turned to college basketball season. While the sport has been playing for months, it’s not in the spotlight until games on the gridiron are finished.

As many across the country fantasize about filling out their March Madness brackets, sports bettors are figuring out what teams will cash a big futures ticket. The parody of college basketball makes picking a winner before the season starts virtually impossible. Using months of data to buy into the marketplace is something I recommend.

For those who haven’t been following college hoops this season, below are the current favorites and my analysis on each team.

Houston (+600)

This is a very short price for a team in early January. I think Houston is the best team in the country. They are ranked first in Ken Pom’s rankings with the second best adjusted defensive rating. We all know the saying, “Defense Travels.” Houston gets after their opposition and causes havoc. They get easy buckets and can steal wins when their offense doesn’t have it that night.

Good thing Houston’s offense is also ranked 10th in adjusted rating. They are led by upperclassmen and will dominate conference play. There’s no doubt Houston will be a 1 seed and potentially be first overall. This should give them the theoretic easiest path to the championship game.

I don’t expect their price to get much lower than +600 considering how random the NCAA Tournament is. Houston’s the best team in the country, and I recommend buying a ticket now.

Kansas (+750)

The reigning champion Jayhawks are trying to be the first back-to-back winner since Florida in 2005-06 and 2006-07. It’s a feat that is not easily accomplished. Then add the fact they lost two NBA players, their senior guard and center from last year’s roster, the task becomes that much harder.

With that said, this is still an awesome team. Their guard play is great, and they still have important pieces from last year’s team. Ranked as a Top 5 Ken Pom team, they’ll be battle tested through Big 12 conference play. Right now, they also rank 10th in adjusted defense and 8th in adjusted offense.

Even with the advanced numbers and returning players, I can’t bring myself to bet Bill Self to win back-to-back titles.

Purdue (+1200)

This is a very interesting team to breakdown. Purdue is a throwback in the modern era of basketball. They are built around their 7’4” Center Zach Edey. In a game that has gone away from traditional big men, Purdue embraces their size. They have surrounded Edey with shooters, which does embrace the modern game a bit.

Because of this, they are ranked second in adjusted offense. It’s very hard for teams to prepare and guard a 7’4” skilled big man when he can also pass and shoot free throws well. With good three point shooters around him, this team is hard to guard. Where Purdue can be beaten is on the defensive end. 30th in defensive efficiency, teams can switch and attack Edey. While Edey poses a shot blocking threat, he can also be beaten in the open floor. It’s quite a conundrum. Dominate on offense and scramble on defense, or go more modern and increase their defensive abilities? Purdue clearly has embraced the first option.

Because of this, I’m staying away from Purdue all year in the futures market. Yes, they’re going to have blow out wins, but those don’t necessarily translate into tournament play.

Arizona (+1300)

Arizona was a dominant team last year. A darling for many picking a bracket winner. Unfortunately, they came up just a bit short in Tommy Lloyd’s first year in AZ. While the top end talent might have been better, or at least better known, on last year’s team, this team might be better.

Their offense is top five in the country according to Ken Pom’s rankings. If you watch them, you’ll understand why. This team can flat out score the basketball. Defense is their weakest point. Ranked 66th in adjusted defense, they’ll need to improve this to go further than last year.

Unlike last year’s team however, this team has experience. Head Coach Tommy Lloyd is in his second season, the role players gained experience, and their stars are top end players. I think getting a ticket at anything above +1000 is something to buy right now. I expect them to win the Pac-12 and their price to drop. Buy now!

UConn, Tennessee & UCLA (+1400)

This is the best UConn team in a long time. Better than the Shabazz Napier team that won in 2014. Danny Hurley has these boys rolling. Tennessee doesn’t have big pro prospects, but this team has bought into Rick Barnes’ philosophy. They are elite defensively and are efficient on offense. Mick Cronin continues to manufacture top end teams in LA. This roster isn’t as talented as his Final Four team a few years ago but might be more complete overall.

UConn might be undervalued right now. They’re ranked third in Ken Pom’s ratings and top ten in both adjusted offense (9th) and adjusted defense (4th). The only thing to consider when discussing UConn is their lack of success in the tournament. After a while it becomes a culture thing, so I think I’m on a wait and see basis right now.

When I said Tennessee is elite defensively, that was an understatement. They are rated number one in adjusted defense across the entire country and make it very difficult for teams to get clean looks. They are ranked second by Ken Pom and have a good chance to win the SEC. Rick Barnes’ teams haven’t done well in the tourney and a price this short is a stay away for me.

UCLA is ranked fourth by Ken Pom. Similarly, to Tennessee, this team doesn’t have the big named NBA prospects like UCLA has had in the past. But they might be a better team. Their adjusted offense is 10th and adjusted defense 7th. Their senior PG Tyger Campbell controls the pace of any game he’s in and Jaime Jaquez is one of the biggest mismatches in the country. UCLA is a tough team to beat, especially in tournament format with quick turnarounds. Right now, this is a stay away for me, but I would buy if the price ever climbs into the +1800 or higher range.

Alabama (+1500)

The Crimson Tide are super interesting to me. They are known for their high pace and high scoring teams. Nate Oats has been successful in Tuscaloosa winning the SEC Championship regular season and tournament in his second season. However, the Sweet Sixteen is the furthest he’s gone.

Like usual, Alabama goes at a fast pace, ranking third in the country for adjusted pace. What’s different is this team is better on defense than offense. Alabama’s adjusted defense ranks 8th and their adjusted offense ranks 18th. That’s quite a change in attitude or philosophy of Oats. This team certainly doesn’t have the most talent he’s ever had either.

I can’t back Alabama at this short of a price. I’m a fan of Nate Oats, but the lack of tournament success combined with this small number is something I’m not interested in.

Gonzaga, Virginia & Texas (+2500)

This isn’t the Gonzaga team we’ve become accustomed to. Easily the least talent they’ve had since becoming a perennial contender. Virginia is in that same boat. When they won the championship, they had NBA players on their roster. Now, they’re back to the gritty defensive style they became known for. Texas is super talented, but their Head Coach Chris Beard was fired mid-season. It’s hard to project how they’ll do the rest of the year.

As far as Gonzaga goes, we know they’ll run through their WCC conference like they always do. However, they’ve already had a few scares in conference play unlike previous seasons. They’re still 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency but are 74th in adjusted defense. I can’t play Gonzaga at this short of a price with this roster.

Virginia is a solid team. They always are. They are well coached and play hard every night, ranking 21st in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Their lack of talent makes me not want to bet them in a year where there are loaded teams.

Like I said, Texas is super talented. Chris Beard did a good job of getting players in the transfer portal when he took over. The problem is Beard, an elite coach, is no longer there. Even though they are ranked 8th in Ken Pom ratings with an adjusted offense rating of 15th and adjusted defensive rating of 19th, there are too many question marks for me to buy in.

Longshot Tickets

Here are some teams I think are priced too low and I’m interested in buying.

Creighton (+5000): This is my favorite longshot on the board right now. Creighton is a really good team. They are led by good guard play and one of the best big men in the country, Ryan Kalkbrenner. Ranked 17th by Ken Pom’s metrics, I think they’ll play themselves out of this price and recommend buying now.

Indiana (+7500): The ceiling on this team is high. They haven’t played to their potential so far giving up tons of points and not rebounding at a high rate. But they are led by Trayce Jackson-Davis, who can be the best player on the court in any game. Currently, they are rated 22nd in adjusted offense and 47th in adjusted defense, suggesting they’ll get their act together at some point this season.

Memphis (+10000): It’s hard not to be intrigued by the talent Penny Hardaway has brought into this program. The talent just hasn’t converted to wins. They did give Gonzaga a massive scare in the tournament last year showing if they can put everything together, they are a legit threat. 35th in adjusted defensive and 53rd in adjusted offensive makes their metrics too solid to pass, especially at this huge price.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook